Does NIL reform really make that big a difference for Kentucky basketball recruiting?

In the months leading up to July 1 — the day name, image and likeness reforms brought seismic change to high-level college sports — the narrative formed that the Kentucky men’s basketball program would be among those to benefit the most under the new rules.

Pundits and recruiting analysts have said it. Former UK players have said it. Even opposing college coaches, in moments of candor on the sidelines at grassroots basketball events this summer, have said it.

John Calipari hasn’t shied away from the notion. In late May, with NIL reforms still uncertain and the debate ongoing, the UK coach acknowledged that he would have to wait to see what the final regulations looked like, but he also — whatever the rules would be — leaned into the narrative.

“No one should be able to do it better than our basketball program,” Calipari said. “All that we do, and all that we can do, in my mind, it should be the best in the country.”

Calipari has touted Kentucky’s standing as a national brand, its placement and ratings on national TV throughout the season, and he’s hinted at the endorsement opportunities that would be available to his players in a city and state that follows this college basketball program more fervently than most metropolitan areas follow their professional teams.

The UK coach is known for bluster when talking up his program. This isn’t one of those times.

“If you just look at it across the board — I don’t think there’s really many schools that have the earning potential that Kentucky does for these players,” said 247Sports analyst Travis Branham. “The fan base is massive. It’s crazy. It’s just a diehard fan base, and any Kentucky fan can attest to this: you can go anywhere in the world, and you’re going to cross a Kentucky fan. That’s the stretch the fan base has. I don’t think any other fan base has that.

“It’s a big college town that’s just very passionate about the program. There are going to be a lot of opportunities for these kids — around the state — to profit off of what they have. And when you look at it across the entire college basketball landscape, Kentucky is arguably going to be the best one in college basketball at it.”

Obviously, that’s good news for the players already on campus, those Wildcats who — starting July 1 — were able to start profiting on their name, image and likeness.

Will that stature as arguably the biggest stage in college basketball drastically change UK’s recruiting outlook for the better? That’s a more complicated question.

Kentucky vs. the pros

In conversations with recruits, their parents, and others in college basketball, the clear takeaway is that the biggest area of possible gain for the Wildcats is likely to be with players who are exploring the professional route out of high school.

Over the past couple of recruiting cycles alone, several five-star prospects have opted for the preps-to-pros path, a group that included Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga and Jaden Hardy — all top-five national recruits who, if NIL reforms had already been established, might have ended up at Kentucky.

A couple of years ago, the 2022 class — players who will be high school seniors this fall — looked like it might be the first group in nearly two decades that would have the option of going straight to the NBA Draft. That won’t happen, but the early speculation surrounding it evolved into an expectation that several top players from the class would ultimately turn pro anyway, play somewhere else — like the G League — and then go to the draft the following year.

NIL reforms have shifted that conversation.

Keyonte George — the No. 1 shooting guard in the 2022 class — will announce his recruiting decision Sunday. The Texas native was one of those players who, this time last year, was expected by many to turn pro out of high school. Now, it looks almost certain that he will play college basketball. And NIL is a big reason for that.

In the past, the decision was go to college or get paid. Now, these top players can do both and stay within the rules, and George says he and his peers see that as an advantage for college.

“I think that’s a factor for most of the guys I’ve talked to. The high-level guys,” he said. “Just because, you couldn’t really get paid, and they wanted to get paid, so they’ll go pro. And now you can get paid to play college basketball. Everybody wants to play college basketball and get paid at the same time. So I think that’s starting to become a factor for most of the high-level guys.”

George acknowledged that no kid grows up wanting to play in the G League or overseas. Young players do grow up rooting for college teams and watching rivalry games and following March Madness, however, and — even if the NBA is the ultimate goal — college basketball still has an allure. He also acknowledged that being a star player on a big stage can go a long way in building a fan base on the way to a professional career.

“It’s helping your brand. Definitely,” George said.

Chris Livingson — another top-five recruit in the 2022 class — was also long seen as a player who would jump straight to the pros. In June, he took official visits to Kentucky and Kansas. He has similar trips planned for Memphis and Georgetown.

Livingston said the G League has reached out to him, and so has the Australian-based NBL. But he doesn’t think he wants to play overseas, and he agreed with George that — now that college players can make money — the playing field has been leveled, perhaps even tilted toward the more traditional route.

“I think it kind of evens it up for colleges,” Livingston said. “I think it plays a big role.”

Calipari has pointed out that these are the type of players he so successfully recruited in his early years at Kentucky, and these are the type of players that he’s obviously targeting in the present. George is not expected to pick Kentucky, and UK isn’t viewed as a leader in Livingston’s recruitment, but it’s still early in this NIL era, and the next class features more elite players — like No. 1 recruit DJ Wagner and top-five prospect JJ Taylor — that the Wildcats are already positioning themselves to land.

Some high school players will almost certainly still go pro in the near future, but NIL reforms are likely to put many of these top prospects back in play for college recruiters.

Kentucky will still have plenty of competition.

The advantage stops there?

Giving UK a greater pool of top prospects to realistically recruit in each class can only be seen as an advantage for the Wildcats, but the importance of the program’s standing as perhaps the greatest NIL force in college basketball gets a little murkier beyond that.

Yes, star recruits who end up at Kentucky will have the opportunity to make major money — perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars, or even more — in endorsement deals. But those elite-of-the-elite players — the ones Calipari recruits the hardest — are likely to have similar opportunities at just about any school with a real chance of landing their commitment.

George, who listed UK as one of five finalists but didn’t visit Lexington along with his other options in June, said NIL presentations were common on his recruiting trips this summer. It stands to reason that he’d be able to make quite a bit of money as the top-ranked basketball player at any of his other choices: Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Texas.

Livingston also talked about NIL meetings on his visits, noting that Kentucky played up its massive fan base, national TV exposure and intense media following as possible brand-building avenues.

Both star recruits said that — while NIL gives college basketball some ammo against the pros — it didn’t necessarily give the biggest colleges a leg up on one another.

The end goal for these top-10 recruits, George pointed out, is to make it to the NBA, which would give such players the opportunity to make an amount of money that would dwarf anything they earned through NIL in less than a year on a college campus.

Kathy Drysdale, the mother of top-five recruit Dereck Lively II, has seen this NIL landscape evolve from different angles. The former star basketball player at Penn State now works in that university’s athletics department as a director of marketing. She’s kept up with NIL reforms through her job, and she’s heard the pitches from the blue-blood schools recruiting her son.

Drysdale said it was interesting to see the conversation evolve over the month of June, when she and Lively took recruiting visits to Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina and Penn State. At first, there was still a lot of uncertainty, with different states at different stages of the process and no uniform ruling from the NCAA. As July 1 approached — and programs and compliance offices got a better handle on the situation — the NIL-related talks progressed with more detail.

Still, only so much can actually be said. And nothing can really be promised.

Bigger goals in mind

NCAA rules still prohibit college programs and coaches from arranging or facilitating deals for their student-athletes. So, while John Calipari can inform a recruit like Lively about a range of what he might be able to earn through NIL at Kentucky, that potential still runs into a lot of unknowns.

Drysdale said she thinks the class of 2022 — in which her son might end up being the No. 1 recruit nationally — has an advantage in this NIL landscape in that they can sit back and watch how the NCAA and universities deal with all the change. A year from now — when Lively begins his college career — everyone should have a better understanding of how things work, as well as what’s truly possible in some of these major college basketball markets.

It’s fascinating to follow, but — for players like Lively — it probably won’t have a major impact on a college decision.

“Everybody’s path in this world is different. Dereck’s path is looking to be a little bit different than a four-year college player’s path,” Drysdale said. “Right now, he’s being projected to be a one-and-done. Knock on wood, God willing — we’re not taking anything for granted, but, regardless, his path doesn’t need to really involve (NIL). I think it’ll happen where some kids are there for four years and it will mean a little bit more for them. ...

“It could be phenomenal for some of these kids. And when it comes to Dereck’s path, he could be a one-and-done and looking at different types of endorsement deals. If, God willing, he gets to the NBA and that path continues for him.”

Lively — a versatile, 7-2 post player — has emerged this summer as arguably the top long-term prospect in the 2022 class. That obviously means that he could be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Wherever he’s drafted, it’s expected to be near the top of his class, but to fulfill that potential he’ll obviously need to continue progressing on the court. And that means picking the college basketball program that will put him in the best position as a professional, not the one that offers the best NIL opportunities.

“For him, he’s going to go to college to start his education and to play basketball. Because the ultimate goal for him is to get in the NBA,” Drysdale said. “And the NIL can’t be a factor in that and get in the way of what your ultimate goal is. Because, eventually, you have the opportunity to make more than what NIL could potentially make for you. More than likely, he will make something out of it. And if it happens, great. If not, your path will lead you to enough where you’ll be fine.

“So it’s not really a major factor in the decision-making, when it comes to which school he’s going to attend.”

Calipari did, obviously, bring up NIL during Lively’s official visit in June, and Drysdale appreciated the feeling that Kentucky’s staff truly wanted her son to be successful from an entrepreneurial standpoint, as well as on the court.

But the NIL angle wasn’t leading Calipari’s pitch of why her son should pick Kentucky over his other finalists, and that, she said, is the right approach.

Reed Sheppard and NIL

For the most part, NIL opportunities are likely to be commensurate with a player’s standing on the basketball court.

There will always be big personalities who out-earn their play, student-athletes who spend a greater amount of time searching for deals, and those with outsized social media followings in a better place to cash in, but the general expectation is that the more productive players will have the most earning power.

A major exception to that, especially within the UK basketball program, is the in-state player.

Dontaie Allen — the only scholarship player from Kentucky on the current roster — was the first UK player to announce an NIL deal July 1, and while that arrangement (personalized shirts) wasn’t a blockbuster financial agreement, it was telling of Allen’s status.

He was eighth on the team in total points and total minutes in 2020-21, but he was also one of the lone bright spots in one of the worst seasons in program history. Allen is not projected to be a starter on this season’s team, but his standing as an in-state player makes him, arguably, the most marketable Wildcat on the roster.

The Falmouth native acknowledged that would be a plus from an NIL standpoint.

“Obviously, I’m from Kentucky — a Kentucky boy. So I feel like I get a lot of support for that, which I’m grateful for,” he said.

The next possible Wildcat from inside the state could take that marketability to another level.

North Laurel guard Reed Sheppard still has two years of high school ahead of him, but he’s already earned a scholarship offer to play for UK, where his parents — Jeff Sheppard and Stacey Reed Sheppard — were standout basketball players in the 1990s.

Though Sheppard also has offers from Virginia, Louisville, Indiana and several others, many recruiting analysts are already calling Kentucky the major favorite to land his commitment, in part, due to the massive NIL earning potential he could see as a Wildcat.

What could Reed Sheppard in a UK uniform mean from an NIL perspective?

“That’s a good question,” his father said, offering a long pause before adding: “I do think there will be opportunities.”

Jeff Sheppard was the leading scorer and Final Four most outstanding player on the 1998 team that won the national championship. He’s in favor of the NIL reforms and agreed that he and his Kentucky teammates could have had some “special” opportunities if money-making ventures would have been allowed at the time.

Sheppard also pointed out that it was a different era then. Star teammates like Tony Delk and Walter McCarty played four seasons of college ball (as did Sheppard). Even lottery picks like Antoine Walker and Ron Mercer stuck around for multiple seasons. His teammates on the 1998 title squad included four-year UK players like Scott Padgett, Wayne Turner and Cameron Mills.

It was a time when Kentucky fans got to better know the players they were cheering for.

“So there was a following that we had, even without social media,” he said.

Reed Sheppard is a highly touted recruit, but he is not projected as a one-and-done NBA pick and could spend two or three (or even four) seasons playing college basketball. With that stature as both an in-state player and a double UK legacy, it could be argued that Sheppard would have as much NIL earning potential in Lexington as any recruit in the country, regardless of ranking. And those potential earnings could stretch over multiple seasons.

Obviously, Sheppard could also turn into a star at a place like Virginia or Indiana — and build that NIL profile over time — but his day one possibilities at UK would tower over the competition.

The Sheppards haven’t given any indication that NIL will be a major factor in Reed’s college decision — and he has said he intends to visit other schools — but his father did acknowledge Kentucky basketball’s probable power in this new landscape.

“I think everybody’s trying to get their arms around it, but I think it could be very special,” Jeff Sheppard said. “The Kentucky fans love Kentucky basketball, they love the players, they love the coaches. So exactly what does it look like? I think everybody is trying to figure it out. But I think there are only a few programs in the country that can package up (something) that competes with what Kentucky can do, from the aspect of exposure and opportunity.

“We’ll see what it looks like.”

‘Not just one player’

While it’s probably true that just about any major program in the country could go toe to toe with Kentucky for any single player in the world of NIL, the Cats could have an advantage further down the roster.

Drew Butler, who runs the college division at Icon Source, a company that matches players and businesses looking to endorse them, called UK’s program “the blue-chip brand in college basketball.” The former college football standout at Georgia lauded both John Calipari and Kentucky fans’ enthusiasm toward the program. He also said players like Anthony Davis and John Wall could have commanded hundreds of thousands of dollars in NIL opportunities, if it was available when they played for the Wildcats.

It’s likely that Davis or Wall, if they had starred in any other major college market, could have had similar financial experiences. Butler’s larger point, as it relates to UK, was — when you have a player like that — the opportunities could trickle down, especially if the team does great things on the court, which UK did while Davis and Wall were on campus.

And while a program like Memphis or Miami might be able to draw a large sum for one star recruit, Kentucky is one of the few places, it seems, that would have enough opportunities to go around, due to that fervent fan base and biggest-game-in-town status around the entire state.

“That is a rising tide that lifts all ships. And it’s not just one player,” Butler said. “The success of the team drives everybody’s NIL value up. I think that’s really important to note. … I would never want to limit — or put a number on what somebody could make — but I know that there is no ceiling when it comes to the earning potential of a Kentucky basketball player.”

That means good things not only for the leading scorer and the No. 1-ranked recruit, but the No. 20-ranked recruit, the incoming transfer from another major program, the eighth and ninth and 10th player on the UK bench.

It could also mean that a borderline NBA Draft pick — a Kentucky player considering making the pro jump early for financial purposes — might stick around and develop in Lexington with the knowledge that there would be NIL opportunities in college.

Right now, just a few weeks into the NIL era and with the actual basketball season still a few months away, there are too many hypotheticals to truly know how all of this will shake out.

This new landscape might not mean a massive recruiting shift for Kentucky, but it certainly won’t hurt the Wildcats’ already enviable position. And it’s giving those players who are considering UK even more to think about. It’s also raised expectations on what’s possible in the near future.

Travis Branham, the 247Sports recruiting analyst, noted the eagerness that Calipari clearly had in the lead-up to NIL reforms to make sure UK was well-positioned for the new era. Traditionally, the Kentucky coach has been known in college basketball circles as someone who can look for new trends and capitalize off those changes, especially in recruiting. Here’s the latest example.

“You could sense he had a high level of urgency. He wanted to get this done. He needed to get this done,” Branham said. “That staff is absolutely going to embrace this rule change. It’s what Calipari has done so well throughout his entire career — and ultimately what has made him so successful — is he’s very innovative, and he’s very creative, and he’ll adapt to these changes and try to figure out a way to have a competitive advantage.”

Note: This is the second in a series of stories related to name, image and likeness reforms and their effect on the Kentucky men’s basketball program. The third and final part of the series will focus on possible pitfalls in the NIL era.