Does Oak Ridge make the region a juicy target for a nuclear attack? | Know Your Knox

Most of you know that Oak Ridge was created as a "secret city" where workers separated the uranium used in Little Boy, the atomic bomb dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945. And you also know that the Y-12 National Security Complex continues its nuclear weapons work, which includes retrieving and storing nuclear materials and fueling the national naval reactors.

Those keeping an eye on the recent news of Russia ratcheting up its nuclear threats – or who still remember the Cold War – can't help but wonder: What would happen if Oak Ridge were targeted in a nuclear attack?

Is Oak Ridge a target for a nuclear bomb or terrorist attack?

The Council on Foreign Relations in 2006 published a backgrounder that concluded U.S. nuclear weapons sites are "not very" vulnerable to terrorist attack.

"Nuclear weapons production and storage sites are guarded by security forces supervised by the Department of Energy," the paper said. "John Gordon, the administrator of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration, has called such sites 'one of the last places a terrorist would think about attacking and having hopes of success; the security basically bristles.'"

The paper did note concerns about sabotage from an insider, or a Sept. 11-type attack using a plane as a guided missile to crash into a nuclear facility.

Think that scenario is far-fetched? Consider this: In 1972, hijackers shot the co-pilot of a Southern Airways flight and threatened to crash the plane into the nuclear facility at Oak Ridge. The plane made multiple stops, including Knoxville, and the FBI believed the hijackers might make good on the threat. The trio ended up landing in Havana, Cuba, and spent years in prison there before returning to the United States to serve additional prison sentences.

More: Oppenheimer's greatest influence on Oak Ridge can't be seen today. Here's why

If Oak Ridge were hit with a nuclear bomb, how far would the damage extend?

So … how far away is Knoxville from potential nuclear annihilation?

Oak Ridge itself is just a couple of miles from the Y-12 facility, while downtown Knoxville is 20 miles away. Many areas of West Knoxville are closer, of course; Cedar Bluff is just 12 miles away and Hardin Valley is about six miles as the crow flies.

A nuclear blast would create severe damage within a half-mile radius, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Few if any buildings would be standing or structurally sound and likely there would be no survivors in that area.

A one-mile radius would mark the moderate damage zone, where you would find buildings with severe structural damage, downed utility lines and blocked streets, and survivors requiring urgent medical treatment. Three to 10 miles out, you might see damage caused by blast shocks.

The biggest danger the surrounding region would face is radiation fallout, which can reach up to 20 miles outward. Exposure could produce acute radiation injury and might be lethal, but the zone footprint would steadily shrink as fallout decayed.

What kind of damage are we talking about?

At first, when I read the description of damage zones, I felt somewhat reassured. But then I started to wonder: Was that map calculated based on a very small nuclear blast? What kind of nuclear bomb would an enemy use in 2023? And what extra level of damage could be caused by dropping a bomb on a nuclear facility?

The HHS map was produced in 2010. According to the nuclear detonation planning guide, when considering nuclear explosion scenarios perpetrated by terrorists, experts assume a low-yield nuclear device of up to 10 kilotons detonated at ground level. For comparison, the bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima generated about 15 kilotons and killed anywhere from 70,000 to 140,000 people, depending on the estimate.

Contrast that to the possible payload from, say, a Russian bomb. Tara Drozdenko, the director of the Union of Concerned Scientists' Global Security Program, told Insider last year that U.S. nukes generally have explosive yields equivalent to about 300 kilotons, while Russian nukes tend to range from 50-100 kilotons to 500-800 kilotons.

A "Nuke Map" that estimates the damage of different levels of nuclear bombs shows moderate damage from an 800-kiloton bomb that exploded on the ground would reach a 2.6-mile radius with light damage extending out about seven miles. Thermal radiation causing third-degree burns also would radiate out about six miles.

What effect would a bomb have on a uranium storage facility?

A 2002 Brookings Institution paper posed the not-unreasonable questions: Could terrorists unleash a Chernobyl on our soil? Could nuclear facilities be transformed into atomic weapons?

I asked the press relations office at Y-12 to respond to these questions: What would happen if someone dropped a bomb on a facility where enriched uranium is stored? What would the potential effect/danger be in that scenario?

Y-12 "respectfully" declined to answer that hypothetical. But it's simple to conclude that an explosion at a nuclear facility could cause a large amount of radioactive material to be released into the environment, essentially creating a dirty bomb to scatter that material.

Has a safety plan evolved beyond 'duck and cover'?

Y-12's website says that in the "unlikely event" harmful quantities of hazardous materials are released, warning sirens will sound within two miles of the affected site. If you hear the sirens outside a normal monthly test, immediately go indoors or into a vehicle and tune into a local radio or television emergency alert system station for specific instructions.

You might be directed either to shelter in place or to evacuate. If you are advised to shelter in place, bring everyone inside, close all doors and windows, and turn off and close all ventilation systems. Prepare for evacuation by gathering items including cell phones and chargers, clothing, credit and debit cards and medicine.

For more detailed information, download Y-12's emergency response guide.

Know Your Knox answers your burning questions about life in Knoxville. Want your question answered? Email knowyourknox@knoxnews.com. 

Liz Kellar is a public safety reporter. Email lkellar@knoxnews.com. Twitter @LizKellar.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Is Oak Ridge an attractive target for a nuclear attack?