What Does the Scandal Surrounding Prince Andrew Really Mean for the Monarchy?
In June 1982, after serving in the Falklands War, Prince Andrew gave an interview to reporters on the islands about his role as a helicopter pilot. Recalling how he had recently telephoned Buckingham Palace and got hold of his mother, he said, “She was quite surprised to hear from me, but she did say that if I saw anybody here, particularly on the ships, to pass on her very best and say how very proud she is of everybody.” Three months later, he returned to a heroes’ welcome in Portsmouth and was famously photographed alongside the Queen with a rose between his teeth.
The version of Prince Andrew as the dashing war hero generating adoring headlines with insight from the bosom of the monarchy has been long-gone for many years. But, even for the generation who first knew him as the controversial and bombastic “Air Miles Andy”—a much-used tag in the noughties over his extravagant globe-trotting—the extent of his recent demise is still pronounced.
Today, he finds himself a poster boy for abolishing the monarchy, quite literally. The campaign group Republic has put his face on billboards across the U.K. to advertise their bid for an elected head of state. Recent polling shows that 81% of the British public have a negative view of him and that 70% think Virginia Giuffre’s allegations of sexual abuse against him (despite the fact he has denied them repeatedly) have damaged the monarchy either “very much” or “somewhat.” The royal family is so concerned about the reputational damage that they have cut him off publicly in pretty much every way possible. He is, they have emphasized, defending the civil case as a “private citizen.” He will not call himself His Royal Highness, no-one in the military will have to toast him as their chief and he has even relinquished honorary membership of his golf club.
Yet, you can take away patronages, military affiliations and erase social media accounts, but you cannot do the same with family ties. Andrew is famously referred to as the Queen’s “favorite son.” The favorite part is certainly up for debate (“I’ve never gone along with that, can a mother with several children have a favorite child?” longtime royal reporter Joe Little tells T&C). But the son part remains a given. He may no longer accompany her on official engagements or sit next to her in a carriage at Royal Ascot. But he continues to be a steadfast companion in private, living just a stone’s throw from Windsor Castle in the Royal Lodge. While the Queen is on the throne, efforts to keep Andrew within arm’s length of the Crown will always be at least partly futile.
However, one of most intriguing aspects of how the scenario is playing out is that the damage to the royal family is both palpable and yet almost impossible to measure. Recent favorability trackers monitoring how the public in the UK see all the senior royals strongly suggests that the popularity of other individuals has not been affected by scandal surrounding Prince Andrew. The figures show that Queen has enjoyed support from about 80% of the public for almost a decade. Prince Charles has been hovering around 60% for the same period, while William and Kate have enjoyed a positive rating from around 70% or 80% of people since 2012. Indeed, the only person whose approval ratings have changed significantly in recent years (apart from Harry and Meghan, but that clearly has nothing to do with this story) is Prince Andrew. In October 2019—before he gave his disastrous Newsnight interview—he managed to muster a positive opinion out of 22% of people. By November 2021, it was just 8%. It is curious that a hefty 70% of people believe that damage has been caused to the “monarchy,” at least to some extent, yet the way people perceive the individuals in the direct line of succession appears totally unchanged.
The Queen’s consistent, and seemingly untouchable, approval ratings bode well for the success Platinum Jubilee celebrations in June. Billed as a “reopening ceremony for the UK” following COVID closures, multiple events have been planned specifically with pubic participation in mind. If the royals do manage to pull off being positioned at the center of a moment of national joy and pride it will serve as powerful antidote to the idea that scandal surrounding Andrew is accelerating the institution’s decline. “I still think that when the time comes and we approach the Platinum Jubilee weekend all this other stuff will be put to one side for that celebratory period. And not forgotten but not particularly dwelled upon,” says Majesty Magazine’s Joe Little. “And then it will come back after the Jubilee celebrations if a resolution hasn’t been found beforehand.” While it is likely that Andrew's daughters Beatrice and Eugenie will appear at any large-scale family moments, it remains almost impossible to see how he can publicly go near the extended weekend of celebrations without overshadowing the narrative.
A civil trial in Prince’s Andrew’s case is tentatively scheduled for the fall, so any earlier resolution would have to come in the form of a settlement. With Virginia’s lawyer saying that any settlement would have to vindicate her claim and Andrew pledging to defend himself against all the allegations, it seems challenging on the face of it to see what kind of agreement can possibly be reached. If this were to be one of the small minority of civil cases that ends up at trial, the revelations in court could be explosive.
Keeping the rest of the royals as far removed as possible from the legal proceedings will be a top priority for the institution this year. Prince Charles and Prince William have already both ignored questions from reporters about Andrew, indicating that they do not intend to engage with the subject beyond thought-through palace statements.
But as the monarchy keeps a close eye on how this is playing out with the public, they will surely be buoyed by the fact that other family members have so far maintained high popularity through everything that has already unfolded. So far there is nothing to suggest that Andrew’s family will be asked to testify, however a testimony from the Prince’s former aide Robert Olney has been requested.
Just days before Andrew gave his TV interview in the Falklands in June 1982, Princess Diana gave birth to her first son Prince William. As she emerged from the Lindo Wing of St Mary’s Hospital, she presented the new second-in-line to the throne, a baby who bumped Prince Andrew down to third-in-line and made it highly unlikely that the line of succession would ever go sideways rather than downwards.
It is an important reminder of what will change with the passage of time even in a hereditary system that is designed specifically to provide continuity. Andrew is currently a son of the monarch, famed for his bond with the Queen. One day, he is set to be the younger brother of a sovereign with whom he has never been believed to be particularly close. And eventually, he is destined to be the king’s uncle; a likely distant figure who people may recall once spectacularly fell from grace.
At the end of the interview with the 22-year-old Prince back in 1982, Andrew quips, “That’s my helicopter flying over at the moment…Somebody’s telling me it’s time to go.” Watching it today, it is hard not to think of what he was told to leave behind almost 40 years later when he stepped back from royal life. The once dashing hero is now fighting to avoid being immortalized as a villain. But the monarchy has every reason to be hopeful that only Prince Andrew will be forever defined by how this particular story ends.
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