Does a second term beckon for France’s Macron?

STORY: The upcoming French presidential election is Emmanuel Macron’s to lose - if the opinion polls are to be believed.

Macron is set become the first leader for two decades to win a second term in office in April.

With that comes the task of steering France through the fallout from COVID-19, global inflationary pressures and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

He spent more than most European peers keeping France afloat during the pandemic.

Voters have approved of his recent diplomatic efforts, including flying to Moscow to meet President Putin.

And both crises may have helped his re-election campaign, according to political analyst Bruno Cautres.

"Emmanuel Macron has benefited really from the 'rally around the flag' effect, because of the Ukraine war, and also because of the way that Emmanuel Macron did manage actually the COVID pandemic, particularly at the end with the 'whatever it cost'. And Emmanuel Macron has clearly benefitted from that, his position of the incumbent, the executive, which is managing the crisis.”

Five years ago Macron became France's youngest leader since Napoleon - the political outsider who would break the old left-right stranglehold.

He set about cutting taxes for big business and the wealthy, loosening labor laws and marketing France Inc. as a start-up nation.

But his plans for pension reforms in particular proved highly unpopular.

The long-running yellow vest demonstrations began as a protest against high fuel prices.

But they eventually focused in on Macron as aloof, elitist and deaf to the grievances of ordinary people.

For French voters like Laurent Semmama that reputation persists.

“He has directed France like he does a business, and it's true this is how it’s done but you also need to take the human factor into account, so you need to be social too, you're not just managing goods, but managing people."

Macron is seeking to extend his mandate precisely to press on with his pro-business reforms.

He still wants to increase the retirement age, cut taxes and further loosen labor market rules - potentially risking further social unrest.

But it doesn’t seem to have dented his poll lead. He is comfortably ahead of his nearest rivals.

Far-right challenger Marine Le Pen lost to Macron in the second round of voting in 2017.

She’s likely to do the same again this time around.

That’s despite successfully softening the Euroskeptic stance of her National Rally party - and broadening her own appeal among mainstream voters.

She’s also had to deal with the threat of far-right nationalist Eric Zemmour whose campaign tailed off after an initial surge.

Jean Luc Melenchon is the only left-wing candidate to poll among the top five challengers.

His France Unbowed party has been boosted by how poorly other left-wing candidates are faring.

But it’s unlikely to be enough.

Right of center is Valerie Pecresse. France’s self-styled Iron Lady – part Margaret Thatcher and part Angela Merkel.

She is a moderate within a conservative party that has lurched rightwards.

She would be France's first woman president - but she would have to pull off a major upset to get there.

Emmanuel Macron may be a matter of weeks away from comfortably securing a second five-year term.

But beyond the immediate crises, communications expert Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet sees a bigger challenge ahead for the president - his own domestic reform agenda.

"Even though the economy is good, and what he did achieve during the five years, economically speaking, is good for French people, and not all of them, but most of the population have seen their revenues increase and they pay less taxes, but you know people have to feel it. And after four years of deep, deep social, sanitary and diplomatic crisis, it's difficult to feel good, even though the situation is better."