Does Trump have a problem in Florida? His campaign claims he's the "alpha." Are they right?

Does Donald Trump have a problem in his adopted home state? The former president and his aides want to make it clear that Trump remains the alpha politico in red Florida.

Last week they waived a new poll showing him leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by an ample margin. This week they have touted two more endorsements by Florida congressional Republicans, U.S. Reps. Greg Steube of Sarasota and John Rutherford of Jacksonville, with another, Brian Mast of Stuart, telling CNN that he, too, would support Trump's candidacy.

"President Trump is the frontrunner for the Florida Republican primary," Trump's Make America Great Again Inc. PAC succinctly concluded in a matter-of-fact statement on April 10.

But two previous polls, one by the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab and another by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, both showed DeSantis with a comfortable lead over Trump.

"The fact that DeSantis leads at a time when Trump seems to be emboldened in national polling among GOP voters, I think it makes Florida relatively safe down the road if DeSantis does decide to run," said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker after the poll was released April 4. DeSantis has not yet entered the 2024 presidential race but it is widely expected that he will after Florida's Legislative session ends on May 5.

There have been other signs pointing to a seeming wane in Trump fervor.

Despite his call last month for his backers to "protest, protest, protest" ahead of his indictment in New York, public displays of support for Trump have been fairly muted and small. The exception was April 3 when hundreds lined Southern Boulevard on the day Trump departed Palm Beach International Airport for his arraignment in Manhattan on felony charges.

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Upon his return to Palm Beach the next day, the only member of Congress from Florida who attended Trump's prime-time address at Mar-a-Lago was Matt Gaetz; this despite the vociferous and universal condemnation of Trump's indictment by Florida Republican officials.

And even that Victory Insights poll, which reversed the firm's most recent polling by showing DeSantis favored over Trump, didn't deliver a knock-out. The survey of 1,000 likely Florida GOP presidential primary voters showed Trump with 46.6% — under half of those asked — and DeSantis at 31.8%.

Contrast that with Trump's Florida polling during his presidency, for example, in which state Republicans gave him 90%-plus support. His support was so bedrock pundits referred to Florida as the "Trumpiest" state in the nation.

But pollster Kevin Wagner at Florida Atlantic University cautions against reading too much into voter surveys at this point for several reasons.

"The problem with, just in general, polling a race that isn't actually happening is a lot of people aren't really thinking about it," said Wagner, who is a professor and chair of FAU's Department of Political Science. "So what you're really doing is you are measuring opinions people generally haven't formed. And that's an iffy business."

In addition, Wagner pointed out that comparing today's 2024 look-ahead poll results to Trump popularity surveys during his presidency amounts to "comparing apples and oranges."

"Think about it this way, a lot of what you're talking about is approval ratings from Republicans, or people that generally supported Trump. And those still would be high," he said. "That's not the same thing as matching him up against somebody else and forcing people to make a choice. So you're really sort of comparing apples and oranges a little bit."

Previous politics coverage: Florida Republicans DeSantis and Rubio go opposite directions on help for Ukraine

Wagner said FAU's Business and Economics Polling Initiative, which frequently polled Trump's popularity in Florida during his presidency, is currently surveying voters and said he would have a better idea of where things stand "when I see our numbers" after the results come in.

"But I suspect if you just ask Republicans if they approve or disapprove of Trump, I bet the number is down a little bit, but probably not as far down as you might think," Wagner surmised. "But when you match him up against a popular governor, it's going to take a hit depending on how you see it. Those are tricky things to compare."

2016 showed that winning your home state's presidential primary is critical

Adam Geller, a Republican pollster, said DeSantis' role as governor also gives him a news cycle advantage. That seems especially true in the midst of the 2023 Florida Legislature session in which DeSantis and the bills he is backing and signing keep him in the public eye.

"It's the power of being a governor and taking on high-profile battles that are important to these voters," said Geller, who is not currently involved with any campaign but formerly polled for Trump's campaign in 2019.

Nonetheless, Geller said he expects polling results will shift and change because the 2024 election year calendar is still far ahead. Plus, he added, state-by-state polls are going to matter much more than national polls in elections.

Public opinion and endorsements in one particular state — Florida — may matter more to Trump and DeSantis because it's their home.

In fact, it appears the governor and former president are said to be in a competition of sorts to procure the vocal backing of the state's congressional Republicans. In addition to Gaetz and Steube, Trump has already secured endorsements from U.S. Reps. Cory Mills of Port Orange, Anna Paulina Luna of St. Petersburg and Byron Donalds of Naples.

The USA Today Florida Network and NBC News reported last week that DeSantis has been reaching out to other Florida Capitol Hill Republicans including Steube, Vern Buchanan, Aaron Bean, Kat Cammack, Mario Diaz-Balart and Laurel Lee.

In the U.S. Senate, by the way, neither state senators Marco Rubio nor Rick Scott, both Republicans, have spoken about making an endorsement. When asked in an interview earlier this year if he would endorse Trump, Scott, who faces re-election next year, said "I'm focused on my race."

Michael Binder, who directed the University of North Florida Trump-DeSantis poll issued in February, said, for Trump and DeSantis, having their home state's support is pivotal for more than convention delegates for a true contender in a national race. He added that DeSantis needs to continue to meet a minimum bar for support among his constituent Republicans if he truly wants to launch a White House bid.

He pointed to Rubio's failed run for the GOP nomination seven years ago. Despite his popularity in Florida, Rubio got trounced in the state's primary by Trump, who wasn't even a full-time Florida resident at the time, though he was a part-time resident. He made Mar-a-Lago his primary residence in September 2019.

"If you can't win your home state, you're not a serious candidate," Binder said. "We saw in 2016 when Rubio didn't get it done in Florida, that was the end of his campaign."

Stephany Matat is a politics reporter for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY-Florida network. Reach her at smatat@pbpost.com. Support local journalism: Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Does Trump have a lock on Florida support for a presidential run?