Dolphins’ cap situation if no Watson. And a caution after jumping from 5-11 to 10 wins

In this piece on Monday, we examined what the Miami Dolphins’ cap predicament would be if they are able to trade for disgruntled Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.

But what would be the Dolphins’ cap situation if they cannot acquire Watson?

To be conservative, let’s say the 2021 cap is $180 million. (Estimates range from $175 million to $190 million.)

The Dolphins have $157.5 million committed for their top 51 players signed for 2021. (The top 51 count against the cap.) So that leaves $22.5 million in space. But the Dolphins also can carry over $15.4 million in unused 2020 space.

So that’s $38 million in 2021 cap space. That can grow to $56 million if Miami cuts Bobby McCain, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Allen Hurns and Clayton Fejedelem.

Signing a draft class in that scenario — with Miami keeping its picks at 3 and 18 — would cost $11.9 million, leaving Miami with $26 million if it doesn’t cut anyone — which isn’t nearly enough to fill needs — or $44 million if it cuts the aforementioned five players.

Other than Eric Rowe ($4 million cap savings if cut), there’s no other veteran I could see being cut for cap purposes — beyond the aforementioned five — because it would either be foolish or would come with a cap penalty.

So Miami would be left with $26 million to $44 million (depending on how many of those aforementioned five are cut) to sign a starting receiver; sign free agent Ted Karras or a new center; sign free agent Davon Godchaux or a new rotation defensive tackle; sign Matt Haack or another punter; sign a backup quarterback; re-sign exclusive rights cornerback Nik Needham (will be cheap at $850,000); sign Elandon Roberts, Kamu Grugier-Hill and Vince Biegel or three other cheap backup linebackers; and sign a No. 3 and No. 4 safety (if Brandon Jones replaces McCain as a starter in this hypothetical).

That’s a lot to accomplish with that amount of money. Also keep in mind that Miami — like most teams — prefers to enter any season with an available cushion of cap space to fill needs that arise.

So if the Texans keep Watson and Miami moves forward with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, there’s still cap room to fill holes, but cuts will need to be made and there likely won’t be room for a second real pricey pickup if Miami spends big on a receiver.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER 5-11 to 10 WINS?

Since 2010, 22 teams have finished 5-11, as the 2019 Dolphins did. And only four of those 22 teams won at least 10 games the next season, as the 2020 Dolphins did.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they were the only one of those four teams who missed the playoffs after rising from 5-11 to 10 wins or more the following season.

Washington went from 5-11 in 2011 to 10-6 in 2012. The Bears went from 5-11 in 2017 to 12-4 in 2018. And Arizona jumped from 5-11 in 2014 to 12-4 in 2015.

Arizona had a veteran quarterback through those years (Carson Palmer), but the Washington and Chicago parallels to the Dolphins are notable, because like Miami, both had young quarterbacks selected in the top five overall during those comeback 10-plus win seasons coming off 5-11 the previous season.

The Bears, like the Dolphins, had a top-six defense in that turnaround 2018 season; Chicago was first in points allowed per game in 2018. The Dolphins were sixth in that category this season.

Both the Washington and Chicago franchises, with young quarterbacks, seemed poised for long-term success after their quick turnarounds from 5-11.

But then both franchises regressed, Washington far more so than Chicago.

Robert Griffin III plunged from a 102.4 passer rating as a rookie to 82.2 in 13 starts in his second season and Washington dropped from 10-6 in 2012 to 3-13 in 2013. Injuries then took a toll on Griffin, leading to diminished skill, and he started a total of 14 games in seven years since.

In eight seasons since that 10-6 season, Washington has not won 10 games again and had winning records only twice.

So the Washington turnaround from 5-11 to 10-6 was simply an outlier, not sustainable.

The 2018 Bears, in going 12-4 after a 5-11 season, saw Mitch Trubisky blossom, pushing his passer rating from 77.5 as a rookie in 2017 to 95.4 in 2018 before regressing to 83.0 in 2019 and playing better late in 2020 to finish at 93.5.

Chicago has gone 8-8 both years since, suggesting that 12-4 was an outlier, not sustainable.

Are the Dolphins doomed to follow the Redskins and Bears, who regressed after 5-11 turnarounds? Of course not. That’s not the point of this history lesson.

This is the point: The line between NFL success and failure is thin. And while the Dolphins’ future looks bright, Miami must hope three big keys to their success can be repeated or approached:

1) Xavien Howard’s historic 10-interception season (most in the NFL since 2007);

2) A defense that allowed opponents to convert only 31.18 of third downs into first downs (best in the league) and

3) a plus-9 turnover differential, which is unusually high for Miami, and a league-high 29 takeaways.

Without those, this might have been a 7-9 team instead of a 10-6 one. Keep in mind that Miami was 20th in the league in yards permitted.

If the Dolphins can come close to duplicating at least two of those three variables (Howard’s epic season/third down defense/turnover differential) and if Tagovailoa improves (if he’s not traded for Watson), and if the rookie offensive linemen develop and the offense rises from 22nd in yards per game to the upper half of the league, this success will be sustainable.

If not, building on 10-6 will be tougher (unless Watson is acquired).

Just ask the previous two teams who went from 5-11 to 10 wins with young quarterbacks, then saw a major regression to follow.