Dolphins-Eagles, marquee games, big upsets — we bring you all of our NFL Week 13 picks | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 13 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
EAGLES (5-6) at DOLPHINS (2-9)
Line: PHI by 9.
Cote’s pick: PHI 27-13.
Philadelphia, Carson Wentz and his disappearing offense have lost two in a row, scoring 19 total points in the process, to fritter away most playoff hope. Miami would be ripe for an upset — if the Dolphins were a normal team. The trouble is, Wentz could find just the cure he needs in a Fins defense allowing the most points, second-highest passer rating and third-most yards in the league. The Eagles offense is battered with injuries, but one still struggles to imagine Miami’s D rising up triumphantly. On the other side of the ball, Philly presents a respectable defense to a Miami offense whose running game is so bad, even 3rd-and-1 looms as a mountainous climb. The Dolphins’ 63.2 ground yards per game is on pace to be the lowest the NFL has seen since 1946. (A new car averaged $1,125 that year). I get the feeling I am being a bit gloomy here. How’s this: Happy Thanksgiving, everybody!
GAME OF THE WEEK
49ERS (10-1) at RAVENS (9-2)
Line: BAL by 6.
Cote’s pick: BAL 27-17.
Want a preview of a plausible matchup for this season’s Super Bowl in Miami? Here it is. Niners and Crows are a combined 19-3, and each won last week, over quality opponents, by a combined score of 82-14. And how’s this: Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, winner of seven in a row, are so impressive they have made San Fran the first 10-1 team since 2007 to be a betting underdog. (And not a small one at six points). The Niners are 5-0 on the road and no doubt will be playing the no-respect card for motivation. But they also are 2-12 in their last 14 roadies vs. teams with winning records. And have any of those teams been as good as these Ravens? Can SF conjure supreme defense to blunt the MVP path of the dual-threat Jackson? It would be something one must first see to believe.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
JETS (4-7) at BENGALS (0-11)
Line: NYJ by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: CIN 23-20.
“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Winless no more! Cincinnaawwk!” First, the Jets have won three in a row, and the Jets are not that good. Don’t kid yourself. Second, the Bengals — with the No. 1 draft pick evidently seeming secure — have ended the three-game Ryan Finley trial and restored Andy Dalton as starting QB. Dalton, at 32, is now auditioning to prove he has NFL life left in him. This makes Cincy better. Gals have lost six games by one score and are just way due to win, and NYJ has lost 15 of past 18 on the road. If Cincinnati gets anywhere close to the defense they showed vs. Steelers last week, they’re in the win column. “To summarize,” adds U-BIrd, “it isn’t that Cincy is suddenly good. It’s that we anticipate a revert to the norm for the New York Jaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 13:
@Colts (6-5, -2 1/2) over Titans (6-5), 23-20: On recent form you would love a Titans upset. Tenners on a 4-1 surge behind Ryan Tannehill, whose efficiency has unlocked Derrick Henry, while Indy is in a 1-3 lull. Jacoby Brissett needs T.Y. Hilton healthy, pronto, and should be close enough to that here. Colts have won three straight in series, and I make it a venue call.
Packers (8-3, -6 1/2) over @Giants (2-9), 31-13: Gee Bees got pounded and embarrassed by San Fran Sunday night, causing a miserable game by Aaron Rodgers. And I see a big rebound effort from Pack. Saquon Barkley still does not look right for Biggies, who could now be missing Golden Tate to a concussion. Feels like an eighth straight loss for NYG.
@Steelers (6-5, +1) over Browns (5-6), 19-17: Upset! Though it’s near-pick ‘em, Pittsburgh is officially a home underdog to Cleveland for first time since 1989. But Steelers hope to have Juju Smith-Schuster back, and I’m riding with Pitt’s defense and the home field — where they have beaten Earthtones 15 times in a row. Steelers could get a boost from Devlin (Duck) Hodges replacing Mason Rudolph at QB, and homies also have the payback edge after that Myles Garrett helmet-swinging brawl in the last meeting.
@Panthers (5-6, -10) over Redskins (2-9), 24-9: Dwayne Haskins has a bruised wrist but should play. (No, he did not hurt it taking that selfie during last week’s rare win). His Skins offense will struggle here in any case. Carolina has dropped three in a row, but this opponent visiting is perfectly scripted for a big bounceback game.
@Jaguars (4-7, -1) over Buccaneers (4-7), 30-27: Going north on the over/under of 48 may be the safest play. Jameis Winston should score big on Jax’s no-longer-feared defense, presuming Good Jameis shows up. But Nick Foles should counter and exploit Bucs’ soft pass D. In a tossup game, give me the home team and the likelihood Bad Jameis delivers a pick or two.
Rams (6-5, -3) over @Cardinals (3-7-1), 24-16: Rams got Rammed in embarrassing Monday night blowout loss to Baltimore. Healing time. L.A. has won four straight over Cardbirds by combined 130-25. Zona off a be will keep this close, but stll like LAR to cover. Question is which unit will be worse: Cards’ awful defense? Or Rams with the ball behind struggling Jared Goff.
Chargers (4-7, -3) over @Broncos (3-8), 24-13: Denver was noncommittal between starting Brandon Allen at QB again or going with Drew Lock. It is not a choice of strength. Broncos have won 13 of past 17 in this division series, including 20-13 in October, but I’m hunching LAC off a bye. Bolts’ defense gets big boost by return of safety Derwin James, and Philip Rivers is due a critics-hushing performance.
@Chiefs (7-4, -10) over Raiders (6-5), 38-17: Jon Gruden’s Oakies got hammered by Jets last week, and this does not present as an opportune setting for a big rebound. Patrick Mahomes, off a bye, has his deep threat Tyreek Hill back healthy and they will terrorize the Raiders’ porous air defense. KC has won four in a row in series. OAK has dropped seven consecutive division roadies and six in a row at Arrowhead.
Patriots (10-1, -3 1/2) over @Texans (7-4), 24-20: The Sunday night booth gets a goodie, and at a fast glance Houston feels like a decent upset pick. Except for this: 1) New England’s track record in prime-time games is much better than the Texans’. And Pats’ astonishingly great pass defense will be tough on Deshaun Watson. The cover corner who should be among defensive Player of the Year front-runner, Stephon Gilmore, will turn DeAndre Hopkins invisible.
@Seahawks (9-2, -3) over Vikings (8-3), 30-23: Monday stage gets a great one — what would be our Game of the Week most any other time. Give Minny a medium upset shot off a bye, although I still don’t fully trust Kirk Cousins against top-tier opponents, and Seattle is the best he’s faced in 2019. All three Vikes losses have been away, and Russell Wilson makes Seattle, in prime time, a mighty tough place to quiet down.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
In the holiday spirit we can be moderately thankful for last week’s 10-4 mark overall and an even 7-7 against the spread. We misfired badly on our Upset of the Week (Packers-Niners), but made amends by calling Jets’ upset of Oakland, and also had a trio of ‘dogs-with-points in covers by Giants, Bengals and Redskins. Bull’s-eyed the exact margin on Dolphins’ 17-point loss. Missed Texans covering by one point on the wrong side of a half-point line. Byes done. Home stretch beginning. Lets’ go! [Note: Our three Thanksgiving Day picks were: Bears (-3 1/2) over @Lions, 19-13; @Cowboys (-7) over Bills, 23-17; and Saints (-7) over @Falcons, 31-20. Find those three full predix capsules here].
Overall; Vs. spread
Week 12 — 10-4, .714; 7-7, .500
Season — 120-55-1, .686; 93-81-2, .534
Final 2018 — 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582
