Dolphins offseason primer: Who’s at risk, how to solve cap problem, where Miami drafts

After a second consecutive late-season swoon, the Dolphins enter the offseason with this fundamental question:

Even though they haven’t won a playoff game with this core, do they do everything they can to keep together nearly all of a team that would be among the most expensive in football?

That would be tricky but far from impossible. Even though the Dolphins are $41.5 million over next season’s projected salary cap, there are ways to create tens of millions in space by restructuring contracts (primarily by converting base salary into prorated bonuses) and by cutting several players with no guaranteed money due.

General manager Chris Grier said Monday that’s he not concerned about the team’s cap situation and that Dolphins executives Brandon Shore and Max Napolitano have “given us a lot of flexibility with multiple options of ways we can be creative.”

The bigger question is whether owner Stephen Ross - whose team already has 2024 cash outlays of $219 million (seventh most in the league, per overthecap.com) - will authorize spending tens of millions more to keep several pricey free agents on a team that hasn’t won a playoff game. Ross traditionally has given his front office whatever money it needs.

“We’ll talk with Steve… and we’ll try and keep as many of the players here that we can,” Grier said.

The other key takeaway from Monday’s postseason news conference is that while Grier said the Dolphins’ “goal” is to have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa “here long term playing at a high level,” the general manager declined to commit to making a lucrative longterm offer.

Asking and answering key questions heading into the offseason:

▪ What would be the upside of giving Tagovailoa a contract extension?

Not only would it give the Dolphins long-term security at the position, but it would lower his 2024 cap hit and give Miami more flexibility to fill out its roster.

If Tagovailoa plays next season on the fifth-year option, his cap hit would be $23.1 million.

But if the Dolphins structure a longterm Tagovailoa contract in a way similar to the way the Philadelphia Eagles structured Jalen Hurts’ five-year, $255 million contract, then Tagovailoa’s 2024 cap hit could be lowered to about $13 million.

The 2024 cap advantages of a Tagovailoa extension must be weighed against the risk of committing longterm to a player who led the league in passing yards but couldn’t lead his offense to more than 22 points in any of seven games against playoff teams.

▪ Who will be the key free agents?

Six starters will be free agents: defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis; safety DeShon Elliott and offensive linemen Connor Williams, Robert Hunt and Isaiah Wynn. Part-time starter Andrew Van Ginkel also is set to be an unrestricted free agent.

▪ How much could those players cost?

Wilkins, coming off a nine-sack season, is in line to command something similar to the four-year, $90 contract that the Giants gave his former Clemson teammate, Dexter Lawrence, last offseason.

An NFL general manager, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Williams (recovering from a December ACL injury) and Hunt could command more than $10 million a year. Grier declined to say if Williams will be a priority but said he has had a discussion with Hunt’s representation.

The Dolphins are expected to at least try to keep both.

Davis and Wynn likely will be far cheaper if Miami opts to bring them back. Wynn played very well before a season-ending quadriceps injury Oct. 22 against Philadelphia. Davis said he very much wants to return.

Van Ginkel, coming off a foot injury, hired agent Drew Rosenhaus with the hope of landing a sizable contract. Miami needs him, because Bradley Chubb’s torn ACL and Jaelan Phillips’ torn Achilles put their status in question for the start of next season. But it remains to be seen whether the Dolphins will be outbid by a team that views Van Ginkel as a longterm starter.

▪ What other Dolphins, besides those six, will be unrestricted free agents?

Receivers Cedrick Wilson Jr., Braxton Berrios, River Cracraft, Chase Claypool, and Robbie Chosen; cornerbacks Eli Apple, Justin Bethel and Nik Needham; offensive linemen Kendall Lamm and Jonotthan Harrison; safeties Brandon Jones and Elijah Campbell; running back Salvon Ahmed; tight end Tyler Kroft; linebacker Calvin Munson; punter Jake Bailey; and newly signed defensive ends Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin.

Miami has one restricted free agent: guard Robert Jones, whose rights can be retained by tendering him.

▪ How can the Dolphins create cap space?

The Dolphins can trim $13.8 million off their cap by cutting Emmanuel Ogbah before June 1 and about $8 million by replacing Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option with a creatively-structured extension.

Add another $3.2 million in savings if they cut Keion Crossen, and that’s about $25 million there.

But that’s just a start. They’ll need to work on lowering 2024 cap hits for Tyreek Hill ($31.3 million), Jalen Ramsey ($27.2 million), Bradley Chubb ($26.8 million), Xavien Howard ($25.9 million), Jerome Baker ($14.9 million) and Terron Armstead ($20.6 million).

The Dolphins previously restructured most of those players’ contracts, but that wouldn’t preclude another one.

▪ Who else besides Ogbah (who is very likely to be cut) and Crossen could be at risk?

While cutting cornerback Howard next spring would leave the team without a clear starter opposite Jalen Ramsey, his 2024 cap hit would shrink from $25.9 million to $7.4 million if he’s cut or traded after June 1 next year, per overthecap.com. But Miami couldn’t use that extra cap space until post-June 1.

The cap savings would be negligible if Howard is cut or traded before June 1. Howard’s $15.4 million salary in 2024 is entirely non-guaranteed. Howard scoffed when a reporter asked about whether he would take a pay cut.

If the Dolphins move on from Baker before June 1, via trade or release, his 2024 cap hit shrinks from $14.9 million to $4.9 million. His $10.8 million salary for 2024 is non-guaranteed. It’s possible Baker could be asked to take a pay cut.

Armstead is guaranteed $5 million of his $13.2 million salary for 2024, and there would be a big cap hit if he’s cut, whatever the timing. His $20.6 million cap hit would shrink to $11.4 million if he’s cut after June 1, but that move wouldn’t be sensible.

▪ Where will the Dolphins draft?

Miami will select 21st, a spot they’ve had only once before, when they selected cornerback Don McNeal in 1980. Grier on Monday was non-committal about whether Miami will keep the pick. But with a mushrooming payroll, Miami could use the cheap labor of a skilled player on a rookie contract.

ESPN’s Jordan Reid has the Dolphins selecting Arizona offensive tackle Jordan Morgan with their first round pick. Several offensive linemen and cornerbacks and edge players are projected in the Dolphins’ draft range.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has the Dolphins picking Oregon guard/center Jackson Powers-Johnson at 21.

The Dolphins also have their own picks in rounds two (pick 55 overall), five, six and seven. And they own the Bears’ sixth-rounder from the Dan Feeney trade in August.

But Miami doesn’t have its own third round pick because the NFL took it away as part of punishment for Miami tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton. And Miami’s fourth round pick this year was sent to Denver in the Chubb trade.

Bottom line: With a rapidly escalating payroll, the Dolphins badly need to hit on their first and second rounders.