Dolphins position review: Will Miami affirm Tua Tagovailoa as franchise QB?

2023 was the best season of Tua Tagovailoa’s career, as he was able to stay healthy and put up career numbers.

However, Tagovailoa was at the center of the Dolphins’ late-season struggles, which culminated in a wild-card round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in which Miami scored just seven points.

The Dolphins have many pressing concerns this offseason but nothing will get as much attention as Tagovailoa’s contract situation as he is eligible for an extension and entering the final year of his rookie deal.

In the first of a series of position reviews, the Miami Herald will examine the team’s quarterback situation. Next up is running backs.

2023 IN REVIEW

After a pair of stints in concussion protocol in 2022 sidelined Tagovailoa for five games, including a wild-card loss to the Buffalo Bills, Tagovailoa went to work in the offseason to address the injury questions that have followed him. He took weekly jiu-jitsu classes to work on the way he fell and bulked up to withstand hits.

He played all 17 regular-season games, a first in his career, as well as the playoff game in Kansas City, and put up the best numbers of his career. He was at the center of a record-setting start for Miami’s offense and in the Most Valuable Player conversation for much of the year. But Tagovailoa struggled in the final month of the season as the Dolphins lost control of the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a sizable lead in the AFC East. Over Tagovailoa’s final four games, including the wild-card loss to the Chiefs, he completed 61.8 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and four interceptions.

DEPTH CHART

TUA TAGOVAILOA

▪ Skinny: Tagovailoa played in every game for the first time in his career and had his best year since he entered the NFL. He set career-best numbers for completion percentage (69.3 percent), passing yards (4,624) and passing touchdowns (29). He finished the season as the league’s passing leader and was named to his first Pro Bowl.

▪ Contract: Tagovailoa, who turns 26 in March, is entering the final year of his five-year rookie contract. He has a cap hit of $23,171,000 the fifth-largest on the team.

Mike White

▪ Skinny: White won the training camp competition over Skylar Thompson to back up Tagovailoa and appeared in six games, completing five of six passes for 74 yards, one touchdown and an interception.

▪ Contract: White, who turns 29 in March, is entering the final year of a two-year contract he signed in 2022. He has a cap hit of $5,210,000 but none of his $3.5 million base salary is guaranteed.

Skylar Thompson

▪ Skinny: After starting three games, including the wild-card matchup with the Bills, as a rookie, Thompson did not appear in any games in 2023, serving as the emergency quarterback on game days.

▪ Contract: Thompson, who turns 27 in March, is entering the third year of his four-year rookie contract. He has a cap hit of $1,005,552.

Offseason questions

1. Will Tagovailoa get an extension?

Tagovailoa, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 Draft, was eligible for a contract extension last offseason. But after a season that, while promising, ended with Tagovailoa on the sideline because of injury, his representatives and the Dolphins decided to shelve talks on a long-term deal until after the 2023 season.

The time has come for those discussions to be reignited and at the team’s end-of-season news conference, general manager Chris Grier said “the goal is to have him here long term playing at a high level. That’s always the goal and we’ll continue to communicate with him through the offseason here.”

The going rate for top-of-the-market quarterback deals is upwards of $50 million with more than $100 million guaranteed. The Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow is currently the highest-paid quarterback by average annual value, with a five-year, $275 million deal ($55 million per year), and $146.5 million is fully guaranteed.

Contract negotiations between Tagovailoa and the Dolphins could be interesting in the coming months. Tagovailoa has improved the last two seasons, but the difference in his performance down the stretch of the last two years and against top competition compared to earlier in the year and against losing teams has been drastic. Football is a team game, but Tagovailoa hasn’t stepped up in many of the team’s biggest moments. And while Tagovailoa went to lengths to stay healthy in 2023, does Miami still have injury concerns?

Furthermore, is Tagovailoa seeking a deal that makes him the league’s highest-paid passer? Or would he be willing to take a deal that’s not as bloated but still gives himself long-term security and affords the team a little more flexibility in terms of cap space and an early exit? A new extension could save the cap-strapped Dolphins several million dollars in cap space this offseason.

2. What’s the next step for Tagovailoa?

Tagovailoa has shown marked improvement since Mike McDaniel arrived as head coach but his struggles late in the season were a reminder of the longstanding concerns among his detractors, specifically playing in cold weather and extending plays. Tagovailoa never looked comfortable playing in Kansas City’s frigid conditions, the latest in his poor performances in cold weather. And the difference in his passing numbers when not pressured versus when he’s pressured is among the widest gaps in the league.

Tagovailoa will never have the mobile skill set of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or even Patrick Mahomes, and McDaniel acknowledged as much in the team’s end-of-season news conference. But the team has been successful in leaning into his strengths — accuracy and anticipation — and McDaniel believes there’s room for growth.

“I just want to see him make sure the curve continues to be exponential in his growth,” he said. “We’ve seen at every stretch of the way him improving. That doesn’t mean it’s void of a result that isn’t desired. But what we’ve seen is him learn from all the things that he goes through. I think that’s the one thing that I can say in my two years of experience with him, is he’s as good of a learner as I’ve ever seen.”

3. Is there any shakeup at backup QB?

The Dolphins had a best-case scenario at backup quarterback: they didn’t have to go to White or Thompson for any meaningful snaps. It was a position room with great camaraderie, as shown in HBO’s “Hard Knocks,” but a Miami team that needs cap space could make some changes in the room.

The Dolphins would save $5.2 million in cap space by cutting White and finding a cheaper option at QB3 if they feel comfortable with Thompson being the backup in 2024. With the NFL’s new emergency quarterback rules, it’s still likely Miami fields three passers on the roster, but they might need to cut corners to do so and get some cap flexibility.

Potential additions

If the Dolphins want to get cheaper at backup quarterback this offseason, players such as Joshua Dobbs and Drew Lock could be options in free agency.