The Dolphins are set to play coldest game in team history in K.C. What to expect

The outcome of the Dolphins’ regular-season finale against the Buffalo Bills determined a pair of extreme postseason paths for Miami.

A win would have clinched the first AFC East title for the franchise since 2008 and give the the team at least two home playoff games at Hard Rock Stadium. Instead, the Dolphins’ 21-14 home loss places them on the road likely for the duration of a postseason run.

The defeat also produced an extreme in the weather conditions for their first-round game.

When the Dolphins face the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday night, it will likely be the coldest game the team has played in franchise history. The temperature at kickoff (7 p.m. Kansas City time) is expected to be around 12 degrees, said Jonathan Kurtz, a Kansas City-based meteorologist who works for the National Weather Service. By the time the game ends about three hours later, the temperature will have dropped closer to 8 degrees.

The current coldest game in Dolphins history is a matchup with the Chiefs in Kansas City on Dec. 21, 2008. It was 10 degrees at kickoff. Miami defeated Kansas City, 38-31.

How cold will it be?

Kurtz told the Miami Herald that winds will be traveling “anywhere from 15 to 20 mph,” which will result in wind chills of around -5 degrees and as low as -10 degrees. So, it will feel even colder than the temperature reads. The wind could also be a factor in passing and kicking the ball.

“I’m a meteorologist, not a football strategist, but you might make sure you have the right end zone you’re going to go for the coin toss, especially in the second half,” Kurtz said.

Kurtz said Dolphins fans traveling to Kansas City should make sure to have an abundance of cold-weather gear, including heavy gloves and coats, scarves, wool hats, thick socks, boots and even thermal wear.

“I’d be really bundled up,” Kurtz said, “because standing around in the cold like that in an outdoor stadium, then you add in the northwest winds that are 15, 20 miles an hour, making it feel even colder than it really is, you can easily get frostbite to set in pretty fast.

“So for anyone that’s going to be game traveling up here, we really recommend — even if they’re not going to be at the stadium wherever they’re going to be — make sure you stay warm, get inside if you have to. If you have to go to the concourses of the stadium to get warm, make sure you know where you can go to get warmed up if you’re starting to feel cold or starting to feel a tingle in your fingers, things of that nature.”

Will there be snow?

The Kansas City metro area got its first big snowstorm of the season Tuesday morning, Kurtz said, with about 5 to 8 inches. The snow will likely still be around in the coming days because of how cold it is, but “the coldest temperatures are going to arrive that Saturday night.”

Kurtz said additional snow will likely fall Friday morning, with an accumulation of anywhere from 2 to 3 inches. However, “it’ll probably be dry” by kickoff.

There’s a light chance of snow flurries around the time of kickoff, but a better shot for additional snowfall — possibly up to an inch — is Sunday afternoon after the game has concluded.

How are the Dolphins preparing?

For comparison, the low temperatures in Miami Gardens on Saturday are expected to reach 59 degrees. Many narratives have followed the Dolphins this season, including their struggles against winning teams, and their struggles in cold weather are sure to surface this week.

With Tua Tagovailoa, a Hawaii native, as starting quarterback, the Dolphins are 1-4 in games in which the temperature was 50 degrees or less at kickoff. Miami’s sole win was a road victory against the New York Jets on Black Friday. But Tagovailoa played well in a late-season game against the Bills in Buffalo in the 2022 season, a last-second defeat for the Dolphins.

Miami has also never won a playoff game in which the kickoff temperature was 46 degrees or colder. The Dolphins have won two where that temperature was 47 degrees: A 1972 Christmas Day game in Kansas City and Super Bowl VIII against the Minnesota Vikings in January 1974 in Houston. The coldest temperature for a Dolphins home playoff win was 55 degrees on Dec. 23, 1973, a 34-16 win against the Cincinnati Bengals.

For playoff games, the NFL provides heated benches and heaters. The Dolphins are also expected to have an assortment of gear, including sideline coats, thermal gear and hand warmer pouches for players.

Coach Mike McDaniel and players on Monday downplayed the impact of the weather on their performance.

“For us and for the individuals in the locker room, I know they will not use that as an excuse,” McDaniel said. “The bottom line is we’ll play a game in the same environment as the other team. It doesn’t matter if you played the last couple of games in warm weather.”

Ahead of last year’s regular-season game in Buffalo, a matchup played in frigid temperatures and snow, players and coaches wore shirts with the words, “I Wish It Were Colder” emblazoned on the front. The team also practiced in its indoor facility with the air conditioning turned up.

“I get the narrative there, but I think you’re kind of overlooking the guys in the locker room,” said tight end Durham Smythe, a Pennsylvania native. “Just because the narrative has been all year that we are the fast, flashy team, I don’t think it means that we are soft or scared of the elements, just because the weather is better down here. The guys in that locker room, obviously we come from all over too. It’s not like we all lived here in Miami our entire lives. We’ve dealt with elements before.”

What each player is doing to handle the weather varies, though.

Right tackle Austin Jackson, a West Coast native who played college football at the University of Southern California, said he’ll wear thermal tights “for sure” and likely apply Vaseline to retain heat.

As for defensive lineman and Massachusetts native Christian Wilkins?

“No sleeves,” he said stoically.

Miami Herald sportswriter Barry Jackson contributed to this report.