Should Dolphins give Tagovailoa a long-term extension? Six analysts weigh in

Part 3 of a four-part series on Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

Should the Dolphins give Tagovailoa a long-term contract extension as opposed to allowing him to play next season on his $23.1 million fifth-year option?

Six analysts — five national and the Dolphins radio commentator — weighed in:

▪ ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, the former NFL quarterback: “From 2009 to 2019, they had one season over. 500. They have four since then, and Tua has been the quarterback. You win a lot of games with him.

“The amount [of money] is the part you’ve got to figure out with a contract extension. [But] he should be their quarterback…. He’s not a perfect player. He’s a good to really good player. And the Dolphins haven’t had that in a long time.”

▪ ESPN’s Mina Kimes: “My concern about a long-term contract with this team that needs to get over the hump is this question: If you take away the middle of the field, do you trust him to move the ball? We have seen defenses do it, obviously [Kansas City in the playoff game] do it with success.

“Do you trust him to create on his own? And can you go deep into the playoffs if you can’t do that?”

▪ ESPN analyst and former NFL safety Ryan Clark, responding to that question from Kimes on “NFL Live:”

“I think that’s extremely difficult. It’s like that for many quarterbacks, but I believe Tua is one that cannot excel once you take away that first read in between the numbers.”

On the flip side, Clark said Tagovailoa, “both in health and success, showed he should be the franchise quarterback going forward for the Miami Dolphins.”

The question, he said, is “where do you slot him? Where does Tua rank among the quarterbacks that are his peers? If you believe he should be paid with the Joe Burrows and Justin Herberts, to me, that’s too much.

“But if you can find a place to let him know he’s wanted and valued in Miami but also allows you to continue to build around him, because he’s shown with the correct players at his usage, he can be a very successful quarterback.”

▪ ESPN’s Shannon Sharpe, the former NFL Hall of Fame tight end:

“I don’t believe his ceiling for the Dolphins is Super Bowl” with Tagovailoa as the quarterback. “Things have to be really ideal for you to maximize his ability. That’s asking an awful lot because you know in football there are things less than ideal. [But] I don’t know what other options you have” to replace him.

▪ ESPN’s Jeff Saturday, the former NFL center and Colts interim coach:

“I’m going to trust him [with an extension] and I’ll tell you why: We saw the devastating hits he took and he went and worked on those things [last offseason].”

Saturday said Tagovailoa was determined to “make my neck strong, get thicker, get stronger [and] handled his business from that perspective.”

That gives Saturday faith that he will improve his on-field deficiencies. And Saturday said not to overlook that his “accuracy has been really good” and “he was in the MVP conversation for most of the year. They were decimated on the defensive side with injuries. That puts a ton more pressure on your offense and teams can play you differently.”

As for Tagovailoa’s 1-6 record against winning teams this season? “I don’t assign that to one position,” Saturday said. “They can win with Tua, and that’s why I would trust him.”

▪ WQAM Dolphins radio analyst and former Dolphins tight end Joe Rose, on his talk show:

“Let me be the first to tell you, he ain’t getting a new contract [if it were up to] me. He’s the best you have right now. I’m not saying get rid of him; he had a Pro Bowl year. He’s at the top when you look at regular-season stats, but you’ve seen what happens.

“I know Mike [McDaniel] loves Tua. He’s rehabbed him to one of the greatest turnarounds we’ve seen. He’s played every game and put up overall really good numbers. But… watching the last few weeks, you didn’t see it. You just did not see it. Really frustrating.”

Against opponents with winning records, Tagovailoa has eight touchdowns, seven interceptions with an 80.8 rating, and Miami was 1-6. He averaged 228 passing yards in those games.

He had 22 TDs, eight interceptions and a 110.8 rating against other teams, and Miami was 10-1 in those games. He averaged 293 passing yards in those games.

Here’s Part 1 of the series on the pros and cons of a contract extension for Tagovailoa.

Here’s Part 2 with metrics and other measurements that reflect some of Tagovailoa’s strengths and shortcomings.