You don't bring a novice to a knife fight. That's why Democrats need Nancy Pelosi.

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi with Rep.-elect Veronica Escobar of Texas and other newly elected Democrats, Nov. 30, 2018, Washington, D.C.
House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi with Rep.-elect Veronica Escobar of Texas and other newly elected Democrats, Nov. 30, 2018, Washington, D.C.

Nancy Pelosi is running an obstacle course to her second turn as speaker of the House, and so far she's making it look easy.

Only 32 Democrats voted against her nomination this year, far fewer than the 63 she lost in her 2016 race for re-election as House minority leader. The opposition evaporated on the floor back then, and history will likely repeat itself when the 435-member House chooses its next speaker on Jan. 3.

The more immediate challenge comes Tuesday, when she and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer meet with President Donald Trump to discuss a government spending compromise to avoid a Christmas shutdown. Will Pelosi emerge with his respect and a decent deal, or a shutdown and a nasty nickname? (He has already come up with "High Tax, High Crime Nancy Pelosi," but it hasn't caught on.)

Yes, Pelosi is 78 and her lieutenants are 78 and 79. Yes, the Democrats need to change the guard.

But not right this very minute. Not with a loose cannon in the White House, voters who made clear they want oversight, centrist Democrats insisting on bipartisanship and moderation, liberal Democrats pressing for a 21st century New Deal, and the politically fraught possibility of impeachment hanging over all of it.

You don't bring a novice to a knife fight. You bring Pelosi.

A Democratic audition for the 2020 elections

I would not argue with her description of herself as a tough bargainer and a "legislative virtuoso." Last year, Pelosi and Schumer walked away from the White House with a budget deal that had Republicans fuming. Always a good sign for Democrats.

In 2010, when Democrats lost their Senate supermajority in a special election and it was generally assumed that was the end of President Barack Obama's drive for a health reform law, I was certain that Pelosi would find a way to get it done. And she did.

The key to Pelosi is recognizing that, Republican name-calling notwithstanding, her Baltimore political roots are more defining than her San Francisco district. She is a thick-skinned realist who said this year that Democratic candidates should pledge to vote against her if that's what it took to get elected: "Just win, baby." And they did, to the tune of 40 flipped seats and a House majority.

This is a complicated historical moment. For Democrats, that means dealing with an erratic Republican president implicated in fraud and crimes; a Republican Senate that for years has been a scorched-earth, zero-sum operation; and a potentially massive field of Democratic 2020 presidential candidates that could make 2016's GOP crowd scene look manageable.

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What Democrats need now is perfect pitch, or close to it. The House they will control in a month is a stage set, and everything that happens there amounts to a partywide audition — and platform — for the 2020 presidential, Senate and House elections.

It will be Pelosi's job to make sure any bill on the Green New Deal sought by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others has appeal beyond progressives. It will be Pelosi's job to ensure that the party position on health care is not free Medicare for all but more like Medicare available for anyone (or anyone above a certain age) to buy. Her job will be, in short, to draw the contrast between Democrats and Republicans on policies and ethics, without giving plausible "socialism!" ammunition to the GOP.

That's a balancing act, but nowhere near as delicate as impeachment. It might be inevitable, depending on the outcomes of various lawsuits and the Mueller investigation, but how fast and on what grounds? Rushing would not be wise and Pelosi knows it; she has been trying to keep a lid on that boiling pot. The smart move, already announced as the Democrats' first order of business, is a "democracy" package to improve voting, strengthen ethics, and reduce the role of money.

Why don't Dems appreciate Pelosi? GOP asks

There is no question that Democrats need younger leaders, and it is increasingly apparent who they might be. Reps. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Cheri Bustos of Illinois and David Cicilline of Rhode Island just rose to higher positions, and there is another group right behind them. Democrats will have plenty of choices in 2020 or whenever the time comes.

For now, though, it's reassuring that Pelosi has lived through an impeachment. She has lived through a difficult climate change vote that House members cast for nothing, because it died in the Senate. Presumably, she has learned from mistakes, her own and those of others.

Take it from a pair of Republicans who once demonized her. "Having had a whole lot to do with the RNC 2010 'Fire Pelosi' campaign, Democrats would be crazy to do just that. Republicans don’t like Pelosi precisely because of her effectiveness," Doug Heye, former communications director for the Republican National Committee, tweeted last month.

"Exactly," former RNC Chairman Michael Steele chimed in. "Why do you think we made HER the focus of the 2010 Campaign and NOT Obama? It still amazes how much Democrats continue to underestimate the effectiveness of @NancyPelosi I didn’t then. And I still don’t."

Pelosi shouldn't have anything left to prove at this point, but apparently she does, and she's doing it by listening, including, adapting, assuaging, managing, strategizing. I hope aspiring speakers are watching closely.

Jill Lawrence is the commentary editor of USA TODAY and author of "The Art of the Political Deal: How Congress Beat the Odds and Broke Through Gridlock." Follow her on Twitter: @JillDLawrence

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: You don't bring a novice to a knife fight. That's why Democrats need Nancy Pelosi.