What a Donald Trump endorsement means for Illinois’ 12th Congressional District race

Former President Donald Trump has been a part of the conversation since U.S. Rep. Mike Bost and former state senator Darren Bailey started campaigning to represent southern Illinois in Congress.

Bost and Bailey are facing off in the Republican primary for the 12th Congressional District. They have been publicly debating their support for Trump and privately fighting for his endorsement, which finally came on Tuesday. Trump endorsed Bost, the incumbent.

The former president is so important in this race because of his popularity in the conservative district and because little else separates the two conservative candidates, according to political analyst John Shaw, the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

“The Trump endorsement was the crown jewel because they’ve been running in the same lane,” Shaw said in an interview Tuesday. “They have the same ideology.”

He said Trump’s supporters pay attention to his political decisions, so the endorsement is a big deal for Bost. But Shaw wasn’t ready to count Bailey out completely because he could pick up voters with the anti-establishment message he also used in his 2022 race for governor. Bailey ultimately lost to Democratic incumbent Gov. J.B. Pritzker but took almost 60% of the vote among six gubernatorial candidates in the Republican primary.

“It’s not the news that Darren Bailey wanted to receive,” Shaw said of Trump’s endorsement. “I’m reluctant to say it’s the ballgame.”

While Bost has touted his experience and seniority in the U.S. House as an asset, Bailey has attacked it, labeling the five-term congressman a Washington insider.

Bailey, R-Xenia, has said he won’t budge on conservative platform issues and highlighted the small-dollar donations funding his campaign while accusing Bost of being supported by special interest groups and making compromises to stay in power.

Bost, R-Murphysboro, calls himself a “governing conservative” as opposed to conservatives he says are more interested in fame than getting things done, and he puts Bailey in that category. Bost has accused Bailey of running for office to serve his own ego.

The primary election takes place on March 19. Early voting is already underway. The winner will advance to the Nov. 5 general election.