Donald Trump pollster says Family Leader CEO's endorsement would be 'negligible' in Iowa

In the wake of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds' endorsement of Ron DeSantis, a pro-Trump pollster is minimizing the impact of another potential endorsement from one of the state's most prominent evangelical leaders.

A Monday memo from Tony Fabrizio — the pollster for Make America Great Again Inc., a super PAC backing Donald Trump — told donors and supporters of the former president that Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of The Family Leader, "has no significant impact on (the) Iowa caucuses."

Fabrizio wrote that polling he conducted in September indicated an endorsement from Vander Plaats, which has yet to materialize, would have "negligible" impact, and his image was "mixed" among caucusgoers who were aware of him.

The memo was distributed the same day Reynolds appeared at a rally to endorse DeSantis, a major coup as his campaign seeks momentum against Trump in Iowa.

"While the DeSantis camp will try and spin that a Vander Plaats endorsement will revive their sputtering and shrinking campaign, cold hard data tells a much different story," Fabrizio wrote.

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Vander Plaats has so far declined to endorse ahead of the Jan. 15 caucuses but has been publicly and frequently critical of Trump, arguing that conservatives in Iowa need to opt for new leadership and that evangelicals are "exhausted" by the former president.

His organization hosted several candidates at its summit in Des Moines earlier this year, which Trump did not attend.

He told the Des Moines Register Monday night that he took it as a compliment and "a show of respect" that the super PAC would poll about him, and remained noncommittal about backing a candidate.

"Whether I endorse or not remains to be seen," Vander Plaats said. "And what influence my endorsement has, I've been pretty consistent in saying that my endorsement usually means they can count on my vote, but outside of that, that's up to others."

Vander Plaats supported Mike Huckabee in the 2008 caucuses, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Ted Cruz in 2016 — all three of whom won the Iowa caucuses but failed to win the party nomination.

The "big endorsement in Iowa," Vander Plaats said, was not him but Reynolds — and said the memo pointed to the "fragility" of Trump's lead in Iowa.

"I think they know it's very fragile, and I think they see the same thing that I do and the same thing that Kim Reynolds has," he said.

Following Reynolds' endorsement of DeSantis, reported Sunday by the Des Moines Register, Vander Plaats wrote on social media that her backing would be "a force" for the Florida governor.

"Obviously, I think she sees that the time is urgent and the time is needed, and she wants to weigh in," he said.

The Trump campaign, shortly after Reynolds' endorsement was reported, also turned to polling to minimize the potential impact she could have on DeSantis' chances in Iowa.

"Kim Reynolds apparently has begun her retirement tour early as she clearly does not have any ambition for higher office," a Sunday email from the campaign declared.

Trump himself criticized both governors on social media Sunday, saying that "MAGA would never support her again, just as MAGA will never support DeSanctimonious again."

The campaign and its allies' efforts to downplay the two prominent Iowa figures come while Trump continues as the frontrunner ahead of the caucuses. The October Iowa Poll found him leading the field by 27 percentage points, with DeSantis tied for second place with former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley.

Galen Bacharier covers politics for the Register. Reach him at gbacharier@registermedia.com or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Trump pollster dismisses effect of Bob Vander Plaats endorsement in Iowa