Donald Trump will go on trial the day before California’s primary. Will that affect voters?

Former President Donald Trump’s federal trial concerning his role in efforts to overturn the 2020 election is scheduled to begin March 4. The very next day — March 5 — California voters head to the polls for the state’s Republican presidential primary.

Trump’s trial certainly could have an impact on the outcome of the primary, the biggest single haul of Republican convention delegates in one state. But whether the back-to-back dates will be a boost or a bust for Trump is anybody’s guess.

“Trump’s trial date right before the California GOP primary will reverberate,” said Christian Grose, academic director at the University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute

A big reason: Turnout is usually stoked when people see an immediate link between big news and a vote.

“It’s something going on that makes people think voting is very important,” said Mark Baldassare, survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC regularly studies voter participation trends..”That’s when you see turnout increase.”

Dave Gilliard, a Rocklin-based Republican consultant, noted that only registered Republicans can vote in the primary, and Trump has gained momentum in recent months despite a constant drumbeat of fresh news about his legal trouble.

“The Trump trial date, if it sticks,” he predicted, “will have little impact on the March primary.”

Trump is far ahead in the latest Berkeley-IGS poll of Republicans. His 55% California support last month put him 39 percentage points ahead of nearest rival Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor. Despite a summer of indictments, Trump was up from 44% in May.

A Super Tuesday for Trump?

California is one of 15 states or territories scheduled to vote on March 5, Super Tuesday.

The state is the day’s biggest prize. Its 169 delegates are 14% of the 1,234 needed for nomination, and the California GOP adopted rules that allow any candidate who earns a majority of votes statewide to win all those delegates.

If no one receives 50% plus one, the delegates are divided up according to candidates’ vote percentages.

Trump is scheduled to be tried in Washington starting March 4 on federal charges connected with alleged efforts to change the 2020 presidential election.

Trial dates often change, though U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan has shown she’s determined to hold the trial before the 2024 general election

Trump could stumble March 5 in two ways. For one, it is possible that by March 5 — with early states already having voted — that a clear alternative to Trump may have emerged. If California becomes a head-to-head matchup, an opponent could use the trial as a political weapon.

“Having a trial start the day before Super Tuesday perfectly captures what this whole nomination is about,” said GOP strategist Alex Conant.

“If it’s competitive, it’s because a challenger has consolidated the non-Trump vote. Having negative info about Trump in the news could tip a competitive contest.”

Grose agreed.

“If the race is extremely competitive coming into California — because one of the early states boosted a Republican not named Trump — the trial date will be a problem for Trump,” he said. “It could cause voters to think about Trump’s relative lack of general election electability compared to other candidates.”

Trump’s other vulnerability is that despite California’s heavy early voting, some of the electorate still votes on Election Day, possibly enough to tip a close contest.

But if Trump has the sort of momentum he now does, that could dilute the impact of any trial.

“The election should basically be over by March 4,” said Yolo County-based Republican consultant Matt Rexroad., “and it is hard to imagine jury selection or pre-trial motions making any difference in the election the next day.”

Trump easily won the 2016 and 2020 California primaries and had no active opposition. He received 1.6 million primary votes in 2016 and 2.28 million in 2020.