Is Donald Trump unbeatable in the 2024 California Republican primary?

Donald Trump looks unbeatable in California’s 2024 Republican presidential primary — at the moment.

His campaign has raised more money in California than any other presidential candidate. Recent statewide polls routinely show Trump with a huge lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and everyone else. His California popularity has held steady this summer through two criminal indictments and heavy media coverage of two others that may be imminent.

On Friday, U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon said Trump’s trial on federal charges involving his handling of classified documents could start in May. Several states will be holding primaries at that time. California’s primary is scheduled March 5.

With all the unknowns yet to come, “I would not say this race has been put away by any stretch of the imagination,” said Rocklin-based Republican consultant Dave Gilliard.

Trump has raised $3.1 million in contributions of over $200 in California since November, when he announced his bid for a second presidential term, according to the nonpartisan OpenSecrets, which analyzed the data for McClatchy.

DeSantis, who announced in late May and held a June fundraiser in Sacramento, has collected $2.1 million from donations of over $200. Smaller contributions do not need to be reported as part of the Federal Election Commission campaign filings.

No other Republican is close to Trump or DeSantis in California fundraising. Next is former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who’s raised $852,000.

Recent statewide polls routinely show Trump with a huge lead over DeSantis, Haley and other Republican contenders.

“Trump definitely has a base that will stick with him,” said John Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and former Republican National Committee staffer. At the moment, Pitney said, DeSantis’ prospects in California are “pretty slim.”

California primary dreaming

California is a must-win for DeSantis and other Trump challengers. A candidate will need 1,234 Republican convention delegates to win the nomination, and California has 169 of them.

Voters will go to the polls early enough in the primary season to give the winner strong, even unstoppable, numbers and momentum. California will be part of Super Tuesday, when voters in 14 states from coast to coast will cast ballots.

If Trump wins in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, California won’t matter much, Gilliard said. But if he stumbles, California becomes a crucial battleground.

Trump has never been tested in a California Republican primary. In 2016, the contest was in June, and the GOP race had already been decided. Trump won with 75%, but his chief rivals had left the field. Largely unchallenged in 2020, he won with 92%.

This time, DeSantis may have the money and organization to do that. The California Republican Party has not decided how delegates will be allocated.

If they are awarded on the basis of who wins each of the state’s 52 congressional districts, that could be a help to DeSantis. Final Republican rules are expected to be decided this fall.

“It’s not going to be going on TV in Los Angeles or San Francisco, it’s going to be a lot of work on the ground,” said Gilliard.

Neither the DeSantis nor the Trump campaigns responded to requests for comment.

DeSantis’ challenge

DeSantis’ immediate headache is that he has foundered in the early going. For months he was widely touted as the best-financed, most politically savvy challenger to Trump — an effective sharp-tongued warrior against Democrats such as California’s Gov. Gavin Newsom, but without the enormous legal baggage and other drama.

But his campaign appearances have often been lackluster, and he’s had to trim staff recently. In state and national polls he’s far behind Trump, whose legal troubles have not eroded his popularity.

In California, Trump was the choice of 50% of the state’s likely Republican voters in the June Public Policy Institute of California poll. DeSantis was next at 24%, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence at 10%.

PPIC polled before and after Trump was indicted in June on charges related to improperly handling classified documents — he pleaded not guilty — and found the same result.

“He’s got a fan base and at this point in time it seems pretty solid,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC survey director.

The poll was also in the field when DeSantis was in California last month. He campaigned at a breakfast fundraiser in Sacramento that attracted about 60 people.

He also visited California in March, before he formally declared his candidacy, as part of a tour promoting his book. That appearance, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, attracted about 1,300 people.

Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, said DeSantis gained stature with Republicans for his COVID policies, as he was a leading voice questioning and challenging federal restrictions.

Now that the pandemic is over, “it’s natural that people start looking at a significant number of senators and governors, and they no longer see quite as much difference,” Issa said.

Issa, who has not endorsed a candidate, found “People want Trump’s policies. They want Trump’s candor and willingness to take on the establishment.”

So voters will ask, do they want a younger, less drama-filled version of Trump? Even if the current investigation into whether he tried to manipulate the 2020 election results leads to further legal jeopardy? Special Counsel Jack Smith this week informed Trump that he’s the target of a criminal investigation in the matter.

So far, Trump supporters are going nowhere.

“The only real question is ‘Could anything happen?’ The only thing I can think of is a health concern,” said Pitney of Trump. “But trying to convince the hard right that Trump isn’t hard right enough? That’s a difficult case to make.”