Will Donald Trump win the Republican nomination?

Former President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign is underway, but he's not the only person battling for the Republican nomination: former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, entrepreneur and "anti-woke" activist Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd have all entered the race.

There's also the matter of the two historic indictments against Trump — he is accused of mishandling classified documents and falsifying records related to a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels — as well as his ongoing legal troubles with E. Jean Carroll, who he was found guilty of defaming. Given all of this, how likely is Trump to win the 2024 GOP nomination?

Is Trump the 2024 Republican front-runner?

DeSantis appears to be Trump's main competition. The governor was re-elected during the 2022 midterms in a landslide, and looks primed to become one of the new faces of the GOP.

Trump still dominates the polls, but DeSantis is slowly creeping up. In an Emerson College national poll of Republican primary voters released June 22, 59% said they support Trump, while 21% back DeSantis. For Trump, that's a three-point drop since April, when the Emerson College poll had him at 62%, and a five-point increase for DeSantis, who was at 16%. Spencer Kimball, polling director at Emerson College, told The Hill that over the last year, the GOP primary has remained statistically unchanged, but DeSantis has made inroads with women voters.

There's nothing in the Constitution that prohibits an indicted person, or even a convicted felon, from running for president, and among Republicans, Trump gained in the polls following his first indictment in April. That wasn't the case after his second indictment; a CNN poll conducted by SSRS released June 20 shows that 47% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters have Trump as their first choice in the GOP field, down from 53% in May.

Who else is running?

Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who previously said she wouldn't run if Trump did, was one of the first to enter the race. "The socialist left sees an opportunity to rewrite history," she said in her campaign announcement. "China and Russia are on the march. They all think we can be bullied, kicked around. You should know this about me: I don't put up with bullies. And when you kick back, it hurts them more if you're wearing heels."

Ramaswamy is a dark horse contender who said he's running for president to eliminate the country's "national identity crisis." In his campaign announcement, Ramaswamy said: "We've celebrated our 'diversity' so much that we forgot all the ways we're really the same as Americans." He has written books decrying "woke-ism" and has pushed to eliminate affirmative action. Given the high-profile nature of the other candidates, though, The Associated Press described Ramaswamy's push for the White House as a "longshot bid."

Both Hutchinson and Christie have been critical of Trump, and after Trump's first indictment, Hutchinson told ABC News that the former president should drop out of the race. "I do believe if we're looking at the presidency and the future of our country, then we don't need that distraction," he said. Since the second indictment, Christie, a former prosecutor, has made many public remarks about Trump's handling of the classified documents. What Christie is saying is "very, very important," Frank Bruni wrote in The New York Times. "He's telling the unvarnished truth about Trump, and he's the only candidate doing that ... he's artfully, aggressively and comprehensively making the case against Trump, knocking down all rationalizations Trump has mustered and all the diversions he has contrived since his 37-count federal indictment."

Scott, meanwhile, entered the race trying to paint himself as a moderate Republican who is a supporter of "traditional conservative values." GOP pollster Frank Luntz told The Guardian that Scott was "the exact opposite of Donald Trump, and that's why he is so intriguing. He is as nice and kind-hearted as Trump is tough and critical."

Who doesn't want Trump to be the nominee?

In the 2022 midterms, Trump saw almost all of his endorsed candidates lose by large margins. "It's basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race, and it's like, three strikes, you're out," former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) told CNN.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) would like to see a fresh face as the 2024 GOP nominee, and said in May she wants someone other than Trump or DeSantis to be at the top of the Republican ticket. Otherwise, "if that's the contest, Republicans are doomed," she declared. Some GOP senators have already thrown their support behind non-Trump candidates, with South Dakota's John Thune, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, endorsing Scott.

Who thinks Trump will be the nominee?

Quite a few Republicans. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chair of the House Republican Conference, is one of the highest-ranking GOP members to publicly support Trump's 2024 bid. Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas, a physician who was previously Trump's medical adviser, tweeted, "President Trump is the Greatest President I've ever seen. I'm on his side 100%!" This sentiment is echoed by Kari Lake, who lost her 2022 campaign to become governor of Arizona. Trump, she tweeted, has her "complete and total endorsement."

Updated June 22, 2023: This piece has been updated throughout to reflect recent developments.

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