Don't expect the Arizona Legislature to ride to the rescue on abortion

So, Arizona. Abortion.

Is the long arm of the law now going to drag off to prison any doctor who dares to help a young rape victim, or will the girl be allowed a 15-week grace period in which she can control her own body?

Yes. And no, according to Attorney General Mark Brnovich. It is his studied legal opinion that a 158-year-old territorial law -- mandating prison time for anyone who facilitates an abortion and requires rape victims to bear their attackers' babies --  is now the law in Arizona.

Or it will be, he says, as soon as he gets a court to lift a 49-year-old injunction put in place after Roe v. Wade.

Arizona’s conflicting laws will be sorted out by the courts but, ultimately, the governor and Legislature will have the final word on just how far they want to reach into a young woman’s uterus.

Ultimately, the leaders we elect will decide whether to ban abortion outright or to stick with a new law due to take effect in the fall, barring abortion after 15 weeks with no exception for victims of rape or incest.

That should make this year’s legislative elections a battlefield.

It should, should it?

Democrats were 2 votes shy of a majority

Unfortunately, Democrats already seem to have broken out the white flag. They did so earlier this year when the party decided not to even try to win control of the Arizona House.

As strategies go, this one amounted to political malpractice even before last week's decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade.

As it stands, the Democrats’ only real chance of having any voice in an Arizona women’s reproductive rights (or complete lack thereof) lies with Katie Hobbs, the party’s likely nominee for governor.

Banding together: How abortion providers will help each other after Roe

As for Democrats gaining control of the Legislature, that was always going to be a long shot. Newly drawn political districts favor Republicans and the GOP has a historical advantage in voter turnout. Then there’s the sticker shock that ensues every time you fill up your gas tank or your grocery cart.

But the Arizona Democratic Party surrendered even before this year’s legislative races began, not even bothering to field enough candidates to at least try to win control of the House.

Democrats stand just two votes shy of a majority in both the House (31-29) and Senate (16-14).

They all but ceded control in the House

Newly drawn political districts give Republicans 13 safe districts (meaning 26 seats in the 60-member House) to the Democrats’ 12 (24 seats). That leaves five districts that are considered competitive (Districts, 2, 4, 9, 13 and 16).

That is 10 seats in the House, theoretically up for grabs by either party. Yet Democrats are only fielding candidates for six of those 10 seats, meaning the absolute best they can hope for is a 30-30 tie.

And even that seems unlikely, given that four of those five competitive districts lean Republican.

In the Senate, Democrats are at least running a candidate in each of the five competitive districts. But absolutely everything would have to go right for them, in a year in which nothing has gone right.

Meanwhile, the race to seize control of the House is over even before it has even begun.

The decision not to compete was apparently a strategic one.

Better luck in 2024? That doesn't help now

Various Democratic activists have told me the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee was focused not on winning a House majority but on winning individual seats – fielding only one candidate for a district’s two seats and thus increasing that candidate’s odds of victory.

“It’s a strategic approach to changing a district over time, as opposed to going in with two candidates and losing both seats,” Democratic consultant Chad Campbell recently told me. “It can be counter intuitive but done correctly it can work and then you can start to change the political leanings of the district over a couple of cycles.”

In other words, give up in 2022 and hope for the best in 2024 or 2026?

That may have sounded strategic back in the days when woman had a constitutional right to control her own body.

Now that we don’t?

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter at @LaurieRoberts.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona Democrats gave up the abortion fight months ago