Don’t panic, there are reasons for optimism now that Boris Johnson has his majority

Boris Johnson seemed to tilt the Conservative Party hard to the right before the election, expelling mainstream MPs such as Kenneth Clarke. Labour warned during the campaign that, if he were re-elected, he would usher in a right-wing, Trumpian Tory government. But there are reasons for some optimism this morning for those at the centre: it is far more likely that the opposite will happen.

By winning a big majority, Johnson is liberated to be the One Nation liberal Tory that he has always claimed to be. He doesn’t need to look over his shoulder to the hard Eurosceptic wing of his own party any more. Indeed, if he wants to hold on to the new seats the Tories won yesterday, he has to deliver the left-wing economic policies, combined with social conservatism, that these blue-collar voters want. As Craig Oliver, David Cameron’s former press secretary put it last night: “He’s going to grab the ball and run like hell for the centre.”

Johnson’s opportunism and ego will drive him to do whatever he has to do to win a second term. That means he has to deliver on his promises of significantly higher spending on the NHS, schools and police.

Even Labour warnings that Johnson was heading for a hard Brexit, a “Trump deal Brexit”, are unlikely to be borne out. Never mind that, if Labour MPs didn’t want a “right-wing” hard Brexit they should have voted for Theresa May’s deal, which would have kept open the option of a permanent customs union with the EU – and which would have kept Johnson out of No 10.

Now that Johnson has his majority, he can afford to betray the no-deal Brexiteers. He can afford to negotiate a trade deal with the EU that would keep the British economy a bit closer to the single European market. And he can afford to take his time about it.

With a big majority and a strong personal mandate, he can forget about the promise he made not to ask for an extension to the transition period if a trade deal is not ready by next December.

I am not saying that Johnson is some kind of social democrat. He has shown little interest in trying to do something about the Tory record on poverty over the past nine years. The Resolution Foundation analysis of the parties’ manifestos found that, under the Tories, people on benefits – including in-work tax credits –can expect to lose out in the next few years.

But there might be a consolation for social democrats in that Johnson has a big incentive to deliver for the working-class voters in seats that have switched to the Tories this time. That means economic populism, delivering better funded public services without putting up taxes for people on average incomes. It might mean moderate nationalism, taking us out of the EU in a way that minimises the worst economic damage.

This morning is Johnson’s moment of maximum political power. How will he deploy it?

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