Don't get too wild with 2023 hopes for these Mariners

I was a little surprised when Jason Puckett, the goof I work with at KJR-FM … I mean, the guy I work with … said the Mariners’ next step should be to make it to the American League Championship Series this year.

We all know they ended their 21-year playoff drought last year and beat Toronto in the wild-card round before being swept by the Astros in the division series.

It makes some sense to suggest the ALCS as a reasonable goal for 2023 since it would be an improvement from last year and serve as a precursor to appearing in the World Series in 2024.

But I don’t look at it as a process. In the past, more often than not, the Mariners have had good seasons, sparking rampant optimism, only to regress the following year.

I can’t imagine that will be the case this season, but I also won’t consider it a successful season if the Mariners get to the ALCS and lose. If they make it to the World Series and lose, that’s different.

If that happens and the Mariners lose to the Dodgers or the Mets or another National League team, there should be two parades — one in the NL city and one in Seattle.

How can you have a parade when you don’t win the championship? Easy, when you’re the only franchise that has never played in a World Series in 46 years of existence. That should be celebrated with confetti and shots of Fireball, even if you’re the runner-up.

Anything short of a World Series will be disappointing for a team that cracked the seal of the playoffs last year and has a pitching staff that makes all things possible.

I wouldn’t trade the Mariners’ rotation for any other MLB rotation. They have a legitimate ace in Luis Castillo and three pitchers — Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Robbie Ray — who could be aces elsewhere. Think about that for a second — two years ago Ray won the Cy Young Award in Toronto, and this year he might be the fourth-best starter on his own team.

And if you’re not a fan of Marco Gonzales, the fifth starter, I get it, he doesn’t have the velocity or the repertoire of the others, but I like his competitiveness and change of pace from the rest of the staff. Even if he falters or is traded, the Mariners are in great shape with Chris Flexen as Marco’s most likely replacement, and Bryce Miller looming as a potential fifth fire-baller in the rotation.

The bullpen is equally loaded and should be plenty rested when they get the call. It might not be the case early as the starters slowly build up their pitch counts, but later on, it’s hard to picture anything but solid outings, reducing the relievers’ work load.

But here’s the problem — the Mariners have World Series-caliber pitching with a possibly so-so lineup. It could be anywhere from really good to not very good and most likely will end up with something in between.

The best news — with that pitching staff, the lineup just needs to be halfway decent. They should be able to win many games by scoring 3 or 4 runs.

Halfway decent is what I’d expect them to be. The only sure thing is Julio Rodriguez. The pretty sure things are new right fielder Teoscar Hernandez, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh. The others are not-so-sure things.

On paper the Mariners appear to have covered themselves with platoons at second base (Kolten Wong and Dylan Moore) and left field (Jarred Kelenic and A.J. Pollock). They also plan to use Moore at shortstop, giving J.P. Crawford a few more off-days, hoping to keep him healthier than he was last year.

Crawford has already missed some preseason games because of arm issues, and his offense is a big question mark after a 2022 season that started well and finished poorly.

The second base situation is supposed to be an upgrade over Adam Frazier last year, but it’s not a no-doubter. And the health of Moore is in question — as of St. Patrick’s Day, less than two weeks before the regular season opener against Cleveland at T-Mobile Park, he had yet to play in a spring training game.

Everyone is encouraged by Kelenic’s hot bat and approach and mindset, but until he proves it in games that matter, I’ll remain skeptical based on past performance.

France bears watching too. After an All-Star first half of the season, injuries contributed to a subpar second half. If he stays healthy, terrific. But France has always been a hit-by-pitch waiting to happen.

Presumably because of questions about the lineup, Las Vegas projects the Mariners’ over-under on number of wins at 87 1/2, eight fewer than the Astros. They’re also 22-to-1 to win the World Series.

Are they good enough to catch the Astros and win the AL West? Good enough to make it to the ALCS and maybe even the World Series?

No, no and no. But keep in mind, I wrote that their 2022 season was over after they were swept in a four-game series in Boston in May.

I just think that when the 2023 season concludes — unless some big hitting acquisitions are made at the trade deadline — we’ll be talking about another wild-card appearance that fell short of the ultimate goal.

Jim Moore is a longtime Pacific Northwest sportswriter and sports radio host on 950 KJR at 10 a.m. weekdays with Jason Puckett, and writes a regular column for the Kitsap Sun. Contact Jim at jimmoorethego2guy@yahoo.com and follow him on Twitter @cougsgo. 

This article originally appeared on Kitsap Sun: Why the Seattle Mariners won't make it past the 2023 wild card