'You don't want to be hot in November': When have recent caucus winners surged in Iowa?
DES MOINES — First-place finishers for the past four Iowa caucus cycles — with the exception of Hillary Clinton in 2016 — all surged ahead sometime in the final months before the caucus, from November through January.
That’s good news for South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who jumped 16 percentage points from September to lead the pack in November’s Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. He is the first choice of 25% of likely Democratic caucusgoers.
That jump is an even more pronounced surge than Barack Obama’s in 2007, when the Illinois senator jumped 6 percentage points from October to November, then another 4 points in December. Buttigieg has been drawing parallels between himself and Obama.
But a November surge also doesn't assure a victory.
In caucus cycles since 2004, only three candidates who were first in the November Iowa Poll — Clinton, Obama and Mike Huckabee — won their party's caucus a few months later. The three other candidates who went on to win the caucus had not yet captured the lead in November, and sometimes trailed by large margins. Ted Cruz was in third place in October 2016, and John Kerry was in third in November 2004. Rick Santorum was tied for sixth in November 2011.
► More: Iowa Caucuses Results History: 1972 to 2016
Former U.S. Rep. Dave Nagle, an Iowa Democrat, said a last-minute surge is the key to a successful caucus campaign. It’s a maxim that’s become known in Iowa politics as the “Nagle Rule.”
“There are three rules to success in Iowa,” Nagle said in a phone interview. “Rule No. 1 is: Organize. Rule No. 2 is: Organize. Rule No. 3 is: You get hot at the end.”
With two and a half months left before the Feb. 3, 2020, caucuses, Democratic presidential hopefuls have plenty of time to “get hot” and move up, even within a shifting field.
The ups and downs of a November surge
Buttigieg’s trajectory in Iowa so far resembles the path U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz took to win the 2016 Republican caucus.
Cruz was polling comfortably near the rest of the pack in the summer of 2015, though he lagged significantly behind early favorites Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon, and businessman Donald Trump. In the October 2015 Iowa Poll, 10% of likely Republican caucusgoers chose Cruz as their first choice, ranking him third.
Buttigieg started this autumn in a similar place. In the September Iowa Poll, he was fourth, with 9% of likely Democratic caucusgoers naming him as their first choice for president. Buttigieg was 13 percentage points behind the poll leader, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, at 22%.
Both Cruz and Buttigieg leaped over previously leading candidates in a single poll. Cruz’s support skyrocketed to 31% in the 2015 December poll, overtaking both Trump and Carson.
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From the early December poll through the February caucus, Cruz struggled somewhat to keep his momentum. In early January, his support had fallen to 25% and then to 23% in a poll right before the caucuses, when he trailed Trump by 5 points.
Cruz won the Republican 2016 Iowa caucuses, with 27.6% of the vote.
But sometimes a mid-fall surge dissipates as quickly as it began.
In the 2012 race, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich shot to 25% and first place in a November poll of likely Republican caucusgoers, after polling at fifth place with 7% in October.
The lead disappeared by the end of December, when he fell back to 12%. Gingrich was a distant fourth on caucus night.
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"The caucuses are replete with stories (of candidates) who've gotten out early and then came under closer public scrutiny and couldn't maintain their position as the front-runner,” Nagle said.
“I think, if I were, for example, looking at Mayor Buttigieg right now, I'd be a little worried. It's November. You don't want to be hot in November because then you become a target," he said. "What you want to do is become hot in the last two weeks of January."
Getting hot at the end
As Gingrich enjoyed his moment on top of the polls, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania lay in wait. In that same November 2011 poll, Santorum garnered just 6% of the vote, tied with Texas Gov. Rick Perry in sixth place.
Santorum languished in early Iowa Polls. In June, October and November 2011, he gained only 2 percentage points, moving up from 4%. He was not leading among any demographic groups. He did not poll highest on any questions of positive or negative attributes.
“Conservatives have kept talking up the chances of the former Pennsylvania senator, who has spent more time in the state than any other candidate,” former Register political columnist Kathie Obradovich wrote one month before the 2012 caucus. “He’s just not a factor, and there’s not much time left.”
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Santorum and his family had moved temporarily to Iowa over the summer of 2011. While he didn’t seem to be gaining traction among voters, he had campaigned in all 99 counties in Iowa.
In the final Iowa Poll, published just days before the caucus, Santorum found his stride: He shot up to third place, with 15% of the respondents ranking him as their first choice.
“The former Pennsylvania senator embodies the old political saw: Work like hell and get lucky at the end,” Obradovich wrote in a column published two days before the 2012 caucuses. “He’s logged over 100 days in Iowa, more than any other candidate, toiling in virtual obscurity.”
Santorum and Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who had been a strong contender since the summer before, were nearly tied in returns on caucus night. Initially the caucuses were called in favor of Romney by 8 votes, but two weeks and a recount later, the Iowa Republican Party announced that Santorum had a 34-vote advantage.
"If you're in this race, until the second week of January, it's not late,” Nagle said. “The second week of January is when you want to start looking to who's moving up and who's falling back."
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What it means for 2020 hopefuls
One factor that might make a late surge more difficult this cycle: The race is more stratified at this point than most. After Buttigieg comes a tight pack of Warren at 16% and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden, both at 15%. U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is at 6%. Everyone else is at 3% or under.
Still, candidates in previous cycles have picked up well over a dozen percentage points from November polls to caucus night. Santorum’s jump from the November poll to the actual result was nearly 19 percentage points. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic nominee, climbed 22 percentage points from a November poll to his caucus results.
If a struggling 2020 candidate picks up just 10 percentage points over the next two months, that candidate could be in the running for one of the three coveted tickets out of Iowa.
Since the modern Iowa presidential caucuses began in 1972, with just one exception, no candidate in either party has gone on to win the nomination without placing first, second or third when Iowa has held contested caucuses. The exception: In 2008, eventual nominee John McCain was barely edged into fourth place in Iowa.
"There's still time,” Nagle said of low-polling candidates. “Is it likely? No. But it's not unprecedented."
A closer look at surges in the past four caucus cycles
Hillary Clinton stayed at the top of 2015 and 2016 Iowa Polls, as rival Bernie Sanders climbed steadily closer. The final poll before the caucus had Clinton just 3 points above Sanders, 45% to 42%.
Ted Cruz surged in December, taking first place with 31%. No November poll was conducted in 2016. Cruz lost his polling lead in a late January poll as Donald Trump climbed, but more votes went to Cruz on caucus night.
Rick Santorum was tied for sixth place in November 2011. He shot up in the December poll to 15%, though he still lagged behind leaders Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. The late momentum carried through caucus night, when he was virtually tied with Romney for first place — and later declared the winner.
Mike Huckabee surged in the late November 2007 Iowa Poll from third place, with 12%, to first place, with 29%. The poll was published in early December, one month before Huckabee won the caucus with 34.4% of the vote.
Barack Obama led the Iowa Poll for the first time in November 2007, with 26% of the respondents marking him as their first choice. He widened his lead over opponents Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in the late December poll, ultimately winning the caucuses by a nearly 8-point margin
John Kerry was third place in November 2003, behind Democratic leaders Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt. He leapt to first in a January 2004 poll, from 15% to 26%, then won the caucus.
Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com or at 515-284-8041. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa caucuses: When have recent caucus winners surged in the polls?
