Downpours, rough surf in the forecast for Florida and Gulf Coast

Tropical rainfall is in the offing for most of Florida and the Gulf Coast this week as a new weather pattern begins to unfold over the southeastern United States. AccuWeather forecasters say the pattern will continue into the coming weeks and say the first dose of rain could be heavy enough to disrupt travel and will be accompanied by hazardous winds in some areas.

"A strong area of high pressure holding in the mid-Atlantic for the first half of the week will create an east-to-west wind flow across Florida and into the Gulf Coast," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys.

An excess amount of moisture will combine with a nearby storm and push across much of Florida, bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. As of 9 p.m. EDT Monday, Plantation, Florida, outside of Fort Lauderdale, recorded 6.43 inches of rainfall during the day. Just south of Fort Lauderdale in Hollywood, Florida, 4.67 inches of rainfall accumulated into Monday evening. Rainfall totals were highly variable, however, with Fort Lauderdale Airport receiving 1.32 inches of rain on Monday, and Miami receiving 2.46 inches.

Any rain will be welcomed in Florida, which has faced extended dry spells since the start of 2023. Nearly two-thirds of Florida is dealing with drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

In addition to the rain, a gusty breeze is expected on the Atlantic coast of Florida. The stiff easterly breeze will create hazards for beachgoers this week.

Coastal flooding is also a concern into Wednesday morning for communities along the central coast, from Stuart to Daytona Beach, Florida. The onshore winds in these areas could lead to flooding issues, especially at times of high tide into midweek.

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This time of year, AccuWeather meteorologists are always closely monitoring any storms that move through the Gulf of Mexico. Historically, April is not a busy month in terms of tropical activity. However, given the right weather pattern and atmospheric conditions, a pre-season tropical system can occasionally form in this area.

Last week, AccuWeather meteorologists believed that a tropical depression or subtropical storm could form in this zone during the second week of April, but that it was a long shot. The chances of a tropical or subtropical system spinning up have now further diminished.

"This week, the conditions in the northern Gulf of Mexico do not favor tropical development," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "The water is not quite warm enough, and the storm will not spend enough time over the Gulf before moving ashore."

AccuWeather released the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast at the end of March. AccuWeather's team of tropical weather experts warns that Florida could be at risk for more tropical strikes this year.

As the week progresses, the area of high pressure will shift eastward to the coast of the Carolinas. As a result, it will alter the wind direction across the Gulf Coast and move the storm over Florida into the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico. This shift will also direct much of the moisture to the central Gulf Coast.

The heaviest rain from through Wednesday night is expected to center on southeast Louisiana, eastward through the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. In this zone, widespread rainfall amounts of 0.50-1 inch, with localized reports of around 2 inches, are expected. In the areas of heaviest rain, most likely to the south of New Orleans, totals closer to 4 inches cannot be ruled out.

Any area hit with more than one or two downpours in a short period of time may also be susceptible to flash flooding.

Motorists should monitor these pockets of heavier rain, as downpours may bring reduced visibility as well as ponding on roadways. Those traveling along the Interstate 10 corridor could encounter some delays with these rounds of rain into Wednesday.

Many cities expected to receive rain this week are going through a stretch of relatively dry weather. Abnormally dry conditions have been reported in cities like Houston, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida, since the start of meteorological spring on March 1. As a result, these areas could use a dose of rain.

New Orleans has also been experiencing a rainfall deficit in recent weeks. During March, only 2.15 inches of rain fell in the city, about 50% of the historical average for the month. Through the first 11 days of April, only 0.43 of an inch of rain has been recorded. The dry stretch has left New Orleans in a moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

"As the week progresses, the moisture is expected to push back east, allowing for more of Florida to get in on the wet weather," Roys explained.

On Thursday, drenching thunderstorms are expected to shift back into parts of Alabama, Florida and Georgia, bringing much-needed rain to many areas.

A number of the storms may evolve from heavy and gusty to locally severe with the potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes and/or waterspouts, especially during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday.

Unlike many of the other storms to traverse the southeastern U.S. recently, this round of wet weather is not expected to bring widespread severe weather. Still, a few thunderstorms may produce gusty winds Wednesday or Thursday afternoon. An isolated and brief tornado could even occur, mainly along the immediate Gulf Coast.

Another front is set to sweep through the eastern half of the country Friday and into the weekend, bringing yet another opportunity for rain in the Southeast. AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the potential for severe weather as the week comes to a close.

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