Dozens of Florida counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ before Thanksgiving, data show

Summer Lin
·3 min read

Daily COVID-19 cases in a majority of Florida counties have reached a “tipping point” before Thanksgiving, according to Harvard University data.

Researchers are mapping coronavirus risk by state and county by the seven-day average of new cases per 100,000 people. As of Monday, at least 47 of Florida’s 67 counties are in the “red” zone, with an average of 25 or more cases per 100,000 people.

The Harvard Global Health Institute released a map that uses four colors to show the risk level in different counties: green, yellow, orange and red. Red means that a county is at a “tipping point” and that stay-at-home orders are “necessary” to control the spread.

Coronavirus cases have been surging in all 50 states, NBC News reports. Nationwide, 12.2 million people have tested positive for the coronavirus and 256,000 have died as of Nov. 23, according to Johns Hopkins University.

On Monday, Florida’s Department of Health reported 6,331 new daily cases and 94 deaths. The state had five straight days of over 7,000 new daily cases up until Sunday.

Florida has reported at least 944,000 total cases and 18,300 total deaths, including residents and nonresidents, according to Florida’s Department of Health.

Hospitalizations and cases have surged, but the rate for the average daily positive tests dropped from 8.2% from Nov. 8-14 to 7.63% from Nov. 15-21.

Daily coronavirus cases in over a majority of Florida’s counties have reached a “tipping point” ahead of Thanksgiving, according to Harvard University.
Daily coronavirus cases in over a majority of Florida’s counties have reached a “tipping point” ahead of Thanksgiving, according to Harvard University.

County breakdown

DeSoto County and Miami-Dade County have the state’s two highest rates of new coronavirus cases as of Nov. 23, according to the risk level dashboard. The rates were 156.8 and 68 average daily new cases per 100,000 people, respectively.

Monroe County has the third-highest rate of transmission in Florida, with 65.6 cases per 100,000 people as of Nov. 23.

Jackson County has 58.5 new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people while Gilchrist County has 55.4 new daily cases per 100,000 people, with both rounding out the top five Florida counties with the worst rates of transmission, Harvard researchers said.

Washington County is in the “red” level with 52.2 cases per 100,000 people.

Okaloosa County and Holmes County are both at the “tipping point” with a seven-day average of 51.9 cases and 51.7 per 100,000 people respectively.

Manatee County has the 20th highest rate of coronavirus transmission, according to the Harvard data, with an average of 37.6 new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

Thanksgiving risk

The Georgia Institute of Technology released a map that helps assess the risk of at least one person who has COVID-19 attending an event. A gathering of 50 people in DeSoto and Miami-Dade counties has a risk of 90% and 75% respectively.

The risk of a person testing positive at a same-sized gathering in Jackson County is 78%, while the risk in Manatee County is 52%.

CDC experts have recommended that Americans spend Thanksgiving with people they live with and refrain from traveling in order to reduce the risk of spreading the virus.

“Travel may increase your chance of getting and spreading COVID-19. Postponing travel and staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others this year,” the CDC wrote.

There was a surge in coronavirus cases in Canada after Thanksgiving on Oct. 12, McClatchy News reported.