Drenching showers, storms could erase drought in Southeast

The southeastern United States will be stuck in a weather pattern that not only brings lower-than-average temperatures but also the likelihood of torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms through much of this week, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

The combination of an unusually strong southward dip in the jet stream for July, combined with a stalled front and copious amounts of moisture streaming in from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, will all play a role in the intensity, number and frequency of showers and thunderstorms in the region.

"While there will be some day-to-day variation, the greatest concentration of downpours is likely to stretch from southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle to the southeastern areas of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

"Inches of rain will pour down over the next seven to 10 days, and that will go a long way toward drought relief," Anderson said.

As of Thursday, July 7, 2022, soil conditions ranged from abnormally dry to severe drought from north-central and northeastern Florida to southern Virginia. The worst drought conditions were along the Georgia and Carolina coasts, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

Rainfall deficits since June 1 include a mere 12% of normal precipitation in Thomaston, Georgia. This town, located to the west of Macon and about 90 minutes south of Atlanta, received only 0.92 of an inch of rain through July 8. Rocky Mount, North Carolina, located just east of Raleigh, has received only 1.97 inches of rain, or 38% of normal, through the same timeframe.

AccuWeather forecasters say much more rain is on the way with a general 3-6 inches of rain forecast along portions of the northern Gulf coast and southern Atlantic coast. Some locations in this zone will have the potential to receive 8-12 inches of rain through Friday, July 15, as rainfall totals may vary sharply from location to location.

This future radar image shows where the heaviest rainfall will occur on Sunday, July 10, around 5 p.m. EDT.

Downpours have already been ramping up this past week. Some of the more robust rainfall reports include just over 3 inches of rain on Thursday at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Meanwhile, Augusta, Georgia, received more rain in one hour than what it averages for all of July. The city along the Georgia-South Carolina border was slammed with 4.67 inches of rain from 7-8 p.m. on Thursday and ended up with 5.08 inches for the day. Augusta's normal rainfall for all of July is 4.48 inches.

The rainfall from Thursday was an example of how easily the rainfall deficit can and is likely to be wiped out in the region in the coming days.

Atlanta already turned the corner in terms of dry conditions back in late June. From June 27 through July 7, the city received 5.15 inches of rain, compared to a normal of 1.87 inches, or 2.75 times that of average. While the heavier rain has missed the city in the days since, several more inches of rain will fall through this week.

"While the thunderstorms on each individual day may be hit or miss on a given day, the rain chances will quickly increase over a longer period of time. With storms moving slowly and with such large amounts of moisture in the atmosphere, it can sometimes only take one storm to bring immense amounts of rainfall," AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Johnson-Levine explained.

Along with the likelihood of drought being erased, too much rain is likely to fall for drainage in some urban locations to handle. On Thursday, downtown Houston, located on the westernmost fringe of the downpour pattern, was inundated with 2-3 inches of rain in about an hour which led to rapid flooding of city streets during evening rush hour.

As much of the Southeast region will experience frequent showers and thunderstorms that can slow travel and disrupt daily outdoor activities, motorists should be prepared for highly localized torrential downpours that can cause water to rise rapidly on city streets and in low-lying areas, forecasters say.

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"This will not be good beach weather most days this week from northern Florida to southeastern Virginia. People may want to take advantage of short breaks that develop, but be prepared to head for cover as storms build," Anderson said. Those who do venture to the beach will want to stay near safe shelter, in the event a thunderstorm develop in the area. Even if rain is not falling at a specific location, lightning from nearby thunderstorms can still be hazardous.

Temperatures over a couple of days in some locations may struggle to reach 80. While humidity levels will remain high, due to the moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic, they may not be as high as some stretches of hot weather that are common in mid-July.

The pattern will also be favorable for locally severe thunderstorms that can produce sudden strong wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes. Waterspouts may form given the weather setup and will be an added hazard for beach and boating interests.

Just about two weeks ago, lightning struck a boat that was off the coast of Clearwater, Florida. Seven people on board the vessel had to be rescued after the boat became disabled. In the past week, two lightning fatalities were reported in the Southeast, including one in Georgia and another in North Carolina.

Sometimes, when fronts stall along the northern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts for multiple days, disturbances that develop and move along can slowly evolve into a tropical system. AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring these waters offshore for tropical development through the new week.

While the formation of a tropical system is far from certain, there will be a brief window of time for a disturbance to organize in the Atlantic. If a storm does form, however, it is not likely to directly impact land.

"Even as downpours remain in place across the Southeast, a potential tropical system would likely move away from the coast and out to sea," Johnson-Levine explained.

Otherwise, much of the Atlantic basin will have atmospheric conditions that are too hostile for tropical development through the next week. This is due to vast stretches of dry air, dust and strong winds over the middle part of the atmosphere.

The Atlantic has been quiet since Tropical Storm Colin quickly came and went during the July Fourth holiday weekend. The next tropical storm that forms in the basin will be called Danielle.

The current season is running about a month ahead of normal when it comes to the number of named storms. According to the National Hurricane Center, it's common to have three named systems by Aug. 3. No hurricanes have formed yet in the Atlantic this tropical season, but the average date for when the first hurricane usually occurs is Aug. 11, the NHC says.

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