Here’s what it will take to drop the mask mandate in Charlotte schools
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An indoor mask requirement has helped keep COVID-19 infections and quarantines low in Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools — and the rule likely won’t change soon.
Right now, the case rate in Mecklenburg County is nearly 12 times higher than school district leaders say it would need to be before they’d consider easing mask rules.
In North Carolina, school boards decide whether masks are required inside schools, and they’re required to vote on mask policies each month. But county governments also have authority and Mecklenburg’s current mask mandate applies to all schools.
Locally, the number of new coronavirus cases among students, teachers and staff — reported weekly on the CMS COVID-19 dashboard — as well as the number of schools reporting at least one case is at the lowest level it’s been since the start of classes in late August, according to an Observer analysis of the district’s data.
Additionally, as the Observer has previously reported, even when cases have emerged in the mostly-unvaccinated school population, outbreaks have been limited in CMS — which health experts and administrators attribute to mask wearing.
Throughout summer school, CMS required masks indoors and state and federal health officials, at the start of the school year, urged districts to adopt mask mandates to slow the spread of COVID-19 as the Delta variant surged. Statewide, with few exceptions, districts opened classrooms while requiring masks.
This week, the state health department opened the door for more schools to potentially ease the mask requirement. Here’s why that won’t make an immediate impact in Charlotte schools.
Masks in schools
Even if CMS didn’t adopt its own mask mandate this year, a county public health rule would require students and teachers wear masks in classrooms. And a federal order requires masks in spaces like school buses.
Mecklenburg County has had a mask mandate in place since the Delta Variant began surging. For the mask mandate to end, the percent positivity rate needs to be 5% or lower for 30 days straight, county Health Director Gibbie Harris said. That low of an infection threshold has been rare for the local area throughout the pandemic.
If the county mask mandate ends, CMS officials can decide whether to sustain the district’s mask mandate or make modifications.
CMS Chief Human Resources Officer Christine Pejot said there won’t necessarily be any one indicator that drives the decision. “It’s important to look at what’s happening in the community at the time,” Pejot told the school board Tuesday.
The current seven-day average positivity rate (the percent of local residents who got a recent COVID-19 test with a positive result) is 7.3% in Mecklenburg, according to data released Friday. The last period where the average positivity rate stayed consistently at or below 5% was mid-May to mid-July.
What is North Carolina’s guidance for schools?
While the latest from top state health officials suggest some areas could drop mask mandates soon, all but one county in North Carolina is considered to be at “high” or “substantial” risk of virus transmission, according to CDC data as of Wednesday.
In updated guidance released Tuesday, the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services recommends districts keep mandates in place if the local community is on the CDC’s list of “high” or “substantial” transmission areas. DHHS recommendations say schools may make masks optional if community spread of COVID-19 drops to what the CDC considers to be low or moderate transmission.
Mecklenburg County has a high transmission rate, based on CDC measurements of recent COVID-19 cases.
In general, however, the positivity rate, the number of new cases and the number of people hospitalized daily in the county has been slowly dropping since mid-September.
When would CMS consider changing the rules?
CMS has abided by county mask rules and most other COVID-19 guidelines from health officials throughout the pandemic.
When Mecklenburg’s mask mandate ends, metrics like the local case rate and positivity rate, as well as vaccination levels, will be major factors, according to a tentative plan outlined by Superintendent Earnest Winston and the district’s COVID-19 response team.
The threshold CMS officials currently consider low enough to warrant possible changes to mask mandate include:
▪ 5% or less positivity rate for at least 30 days in Mecklenburg
▪ A case rate of no more than 10 new cases per 100,000 residents sustained for 30 days
▪ Vaccination rate of 50% or more among children ages 5 to 17
How likely are those scenarios?
Throughout the pandemic, and since access to COVID-19 testing expanded, Mecklenburg County has seen sustained 5% or less positivity rate twice for at least 30 days. According to an Observer analysis of local health statistics, that happened once last fall in September and October and once in the summer before the Delta strain took hold.
During much of June and July — months with overall low COVID spread locally — the case rate was around 35 new infections per 100,000 people. Although those summer months were some of the most stable seen in Mecklenburg throughout the pandemic, even that low of a case rate would not be in line with CMS’ current considerations to eliminate the mask rule.
Currently, the case rate is much higher than what CMS has outlined as suitable for dropping mask rules. The seven-day average case rate is at 118 cases per 100,000 residents as of Oct. 20.
Vaccination rates are harder to predict as young children have not been able to be vaccinated yet.
What other indicators will the district consider?
CMS will review the percentage of quarantines this school year in classroom settings where masks were not able to be consistently worn. Pejot gave the example of Exception Children (EC) or Pre-K classrooms. EC and Pre-K locations have challenges associated with enforcing mask mandates As a result, 38.7% of October 2021 quarantines are EC or Pre-K locations.
“This data may continue to demonstrate that masking is effective to protect in-person learning if a significant number of quarantines occur where consistent mask wearing is not possible,” Pejot said.
The district will also review the number of occurrences of transitions to remote learning in the prior 30 days. Revised quarantine rules now exempt close contacts from quarantine if masks are properly and consistently worn, and the data could be used to demonstrate that masks are an important tool that protects in-person learning.
Future outbreaks could also impact the rule.
“If the district is experiencing an increase in the number of clusters districtwide and/or the number of schools experiencing clusters increased in the last 30 days, the (response team) will likely recommend continuation of the policy,” Pejot said.
What are they saying?
School board member Sean Strain said people have to recognize there are benefits associated with removal of masks, as well, as benefits of wearing masks. He used the example of the challenges wearing masks produce when educators are trying to teach early literacy.
Strain also said seeing 50% or more of children aged 5 to 17 fully vaccinated is a “pipe dream.”
“We’ll see what the take up is like, but again, vaccination is a risk mitigation measure, and it’s going to be down to every parent to decide whether that is a step that they want and need to take with their children,” Strain said. “I’ve been very clear, three of mine are eligible and all three are vaccinated. But that was a personal choice.”
Board member Rhonda Cheek, and others said they’re looking forward to when a mask optional choice can be on the table.
“I’m anxiously awaiting the mask optional day. I’m ready,” Cheek said. “When the county lifts the mandate, I would like us to do the same thing.”
News Editor Anna Douglas contributed.
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