Drought conditions worsen for metro-east communities. Is any relief on the way?

Garen Vartanian
·5 min read

Dry conditions in southwestern Illinois continue to deteriorate, the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor revealed Thursday morning.

All counties, other than Madison, saw things worsen from earlier this week:

  • Bond County: Moderate drought, with a small southern section in a severe drought.

  • Clinton County: About 3/4 in a severe drought and the other 1/4 in a moderate drought.

  • Madison County: A small section remains in moderate drought. The rest is abnormally dry.

  • Monroe County: Most of the county is in severe drought, but a small northern section in a moderate drought.

  • Randolph County: The entire county is in a severe drought.

  • St. Clair County: One small section remains abnormally dry, another small section is in a moderate drought and the majority of the county is in a severe drought.

  • Washington County: A little more than half the county is in a severe drought, with the rest in a moderate drought.

Here is the official classification system of the U.S. Drought Monitor:

  • None: Normal or wet conditions, -0.49 inches or above

  • D0: Abnormally dry, -0.5 to -0.79 inches

  • D1: Moderate Drought, -0.8 to -1.29 inches

  • D2: Severe drought, -1.3 to 1.59 inches

  • D3: Extreme drought, -1.6 to -1.99 inches

  • D4: Exceptional drought, -2.0 or less

“Obviously, things are trending in the wrong direction,” Mark Fuchs, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service of St. Louis, said Thursday morning. “The one thing we do need is near to above normal rainfall and we’d had about the complete opposite of that, especially in last week. We’re seeing degradation in the metro-east area because we’ve virtually had no rain the past seven days.”

Hope may be on the horizon. According to the National Weather Service Prediction Center, the rainfall outlook for the state of Illinois is at or above normal from the next 6-10 days. In days 8-14, the rainfall chances for the metro-east are above average, according to the prediction model.

“It’s been dry, but there is some hope,” Fuchs said. “The outlook is encouraging. Hopefully it bears fruit.”

Fuchs explained the rainfall amounts needed to put a dent into the drought. He said the metro-east typically gets a little less than 1 inch of rain per week over any seven-day period this time of year or approximately 3.8-4.1 inches per month.

“So we’re looking for something at least around that much,” Fuchs said. “If we’re getting a half an inch or less, that’s probably less than half of what you need. That’s (getting the rain) not a bad thing, but not what you need. Anything more than 1 inch is much more helpful.”

What will put a dent in the drought?

Fuchs on Tuesday provided a specific breakdown of rainfall amounts in nine metro-east communities in June through Monday, June 26:

  • Belleville: 1.95 inches

  • Breese: 0.28 of an inch

  • Edwardsville: 2-2.25 inches

  • Fairmont City: 1.65 inches

  • Granite City: 2.77 inches (the highest amount in the metro-east, Fuchs noted)

  • Mascoutah: Less than 1 inch

  • Millstadt: 1.21 inches

  • O’Fallon: 1.61 inches

  • Waterloo: 1.27 inches

Average normal rainfall amounts for each town this time a year were not available, but across the region it should be in the 3.8-4.1 inches per month range.

He said not all rain is created equal during a drought. Specifically, Fuchs said, having that inch of rain spread over multiple days is more impactful than just having it all fall in five minutes.

“If you get that type of rain in two or three events, that’s great,” Fuchs said. “If you get it all at one time, it’s obviously helpful but not as helpful as if you get that type of rain spread out over Day 2, Day 5 and Day 7, for example. Because that does two things: 1.) It helps replenish things multiple times; 2.) The events themselves come with cloud cover and that cuts down the evapotranspiration rate for that day.

“And the cloud cover from the thunderstorms helps keep the temperatures capped a little bit.”

Evapotranspiration rate is the process by which water is transferred from the land to the atmosphere by evaporation from the soil and other surfaces and by transpiration from plants.

Fuchs said having the Mississippi River, the Illinois River and the Kaskaskia River nearby is extremely helpful.

“We’re fortunate to have those adequate water supplies,” he added. “These are decent-sized river basins that provide a fair amount of water. But they are getting low, not in terms of how much water we withdraw, but just low from a historical perspective. For this time of year, it’s unusual for the Mississippi and Illinois rivers, specifically, to be as low on flow as they are currently. That could change with the rain in Illinois over the next 7-14 days. That should help the water flow on those rivers.

Upcoming weather forecast

Looking ahead, the NWS has projected Thursday’s high at 98 degrees with heat index values as high as 107. Friday appears to be a carbon copy with a high of 99 and heat index values at 107 degrees. Saturday’s high will reach 95 degrees before temperatures drop a bit to a high of 88 on Sunday.

Then, temperatures remain warm in the early part of next week with a high of 90 on Monday and highs of 93 on Tuesday (Independence Day) and Wednesday.

There is a chance of rain in the forecast every day through Wednesday — including a 60% chance Saturday night — that could provide some level of relief.