It's a dry heat: Albuquerque flirting with record aridity and 100-degree days

Jul. 28—What monsoon?

In Albuquerque, the rainy season starts about June 15 and continues through the end of September.

But not this year.

Andrew Mangham, senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, said there have been only trace amounts of rain in the Albuquerque area since June 15.

"We are about 2 1/4 inches below normal (for annual rainfall)," he said. "Looking at data going back to the late 1800s, this is the driest July we have ever seen here. And we are on track to be the hottest July ever."

When the mercury muscled its way up to 100 at 3:28 p.m. on Friday, it marked the 15th day this year that the temperature has reached or exceeded 100 degrees in Albuquerque. All those 100-degree days were recorded in July, the hottest being 104 degrees on July 17.

Fifteen ties the record for the number of 100 degree-or-more days in Albuquerque during July. That record was set in 1980, the year Albuquerque got up to 100 degrees or more a record 28 times.

Friday's 100-degree day also moves 2023 into a tie with 1981 for the third-most 100-degree-or-better days in Albuquerque in a single year.

"The second highest is 18 days in 1979," Mangham said. "I think (2023) has a strong chance of hitting second place."

Of course, Albuquerque is not the only place that's getting blistered.

"We are seeing some really strong temperatures in Arizona," Mangham said. "The entire desert Southwest is under extreme heat conditions — and other parts of the country as well."

By the way, Albuquerque's highest recorded temperature is 107 degrees on June 26, 1994. That's probably not out of reach this year either.

Land of extremes

Mangham said it is still possible that some parts of New Mexico might wring some moisture out of the monsoon season this year, but he concedes that indications are not good.

"We are not looking at strong signals for good precipitation," he said. "Outlooks by the Climate Prediction Center are for below normal precipitation in August and September and for it to be hotter than average in August and September."

As dire as that might sound, the situation is not as grim as it was last summer. On June 14, 2022, 100% of the state was in some degree of drought and 52% was in exceptional drought, the most serious category.

"We are not that bad, but we are seeing a rapid intensification of dry conditions," Mangham said. "We are drying out rapidly."

Mangham is part of the New Mexico Drought Monitor Working Group, representatives of state and federal agencies who meet monthly to draw up maps that show the extent of drought in the state. This month's map, made public on Thursday, shows that more than 86% of the state is in some degree of drought. That is up from 44% on June 27.

"The atmosphere is sucking what little moisture there is out of the state," Mangham said during the DMWG session. "The southeast (part of the state) is getting hammered. Soils are getting parched. Soil moisture readings are bottoming out. It is hot. It is dry. It is not getting any better."

According to the latest drought map, most of New Mexico is classified as abnormally dry, the least serious drought category. The biggest change from last month to this is that abnormally dry conditions expanded west across the state.

But there are swaths of moderate drought in the northwest, northeast and southeast. There's a smudge of severe drought in San Juan County in northwest New Mexico and a mean patch of severe drought in portions of Lea, Chaves, Eddy and Otero in the southeast.

Mangham said things are not worse than they are because of a good spring runoff.

"We had an extremely good water-supply year because of the close-to-record and record snowpacks we had," he said. "We had quite a bit of water to deliver. But now we are seeing the drought intensify. That's New Mexico. It can be a land of extremes."

Dry riverA 26.7-mile stretch of the Rio Grande is dry from San Acacia in Socorro County south, according to the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District. Jason Casuga, MRGCD's chief engineer, said the drying of the river north of San Acacia could become a factor as early as next week.

MRGCD is responsible for drainage, irrigation and flood control for 150 miles along the Rio Grande from Cochiti Dam in Sandoval County to the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge in Socorro County. In June, there was sufficient irrigation water because the Rio Grande was overflowing its banks due to the influx of water from that robust spring runoff.

But the runoff ended in early July and, according to a statement posted on the MRGCD's website, the natural flow of the river has declined by 85% and has now dipped below the amount needed to meet irrigation demand.

On July 17, MRGCD started releasing San Juan-Chama Project Water to supplement the Rio Grande's natural flow. The San Juan Chama-Project, initiated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in 1951, moves water from the drainage basin of the San Juan River to help meet water needs in the Rio Grande watershed.

But the MRGCD does not have a limitless supply of San Juan-Chama water. Depending on temperatures and precipitation, Casuga said he expects the district's allocation to run out between Aug. 12 and Aug. 15. As of now, irrigators who depend on the MRGCD are still getting water on demand, but Casuga said when the San Juan-Chama water is gone, it's going to be a struggle.

"We will try to rotate water fair and equitably," he said. "But after we run out of San Juan-Chama water, we are not going to have a ton left."

Getting scary

On Friday, farmer Anthony Wagner was irrigating crops in Corrales. Wagner grows apples, sweet corn, some chile, black-eyed peas, cucumbers and squash in Corrales and chile, pumpkins, melons and alfalfa in Socorro.

"We have been getting water up until now, but the river is going down," he said. "I don't know about August. We are not getting any monsoon at all. That would at least carry us."

Wagner grows six varieties of chile. He said he has heard people say that dry years make for hotter chile.

"They say it gets a little hotter, but I don't notice it," he said. "But I do know they've got to have water."

Ronnie Moya, who farms 50 acres in the village of Adelino, in Valencia County, said he has only received sprinklings of rain down his way. Moya uses a well and drip irrigation to water his melons, chile, bell peppers, garlic, pinto beans, asparagus and carrots. He depends on MRGCD irrigation for his alfalfa and oats. But rain is an important element in everything he grows.

"My chile looks fine," he said. "I grow just enough chile for my family, 30 sacks or so." But he sells his other produce.

"The watermelons look great. The cantaloupe looks good. But my bell peppers are not holding up under the heat. The blossoms just dry up."

He said he has done one cutting of alfalfa mixed with oats and hopes to get one more cutting — maybe two — if it ever rains.

Mark Garcia has two farms, one in Tomé and one in Casa Colorada, both in Valencia County. He grows grass hay and alfalfa.

On Friday, he was on a tractor cutting grass for a customer in Las Nutrias, in Socorro County.

"We do whatever work we can," he said. "I think I was born on a tractor."

Garcia said he has had just enough rain to make his windshields dirty.

"It is getting scary out there," he said. "It's hot and dry. I am kind of scared about my grass. If we don't have rain, we probably will not have grass next year. Alfalfa is more drought tolerant."

At this point, with the natural flow of the river down and San Juan-Chama water in limited supply, rain is the key.

"I've been doing whatever it takes — dancing and praying," Garcia said. "I guess I'm not a very good dancer."