Thursday's Daytona 500 weather report: What's the latest forecast?

With qualifying and practice runs underway at Daytona International Speedway, including a full slate of racing that includes Cup Series Bluegreen Vacations Duels on Thursday night, there’s still big concern about a rainy weekend weather forecast that could affect Sunday’s Daytona 500.

Here’s Thursday's update on rain chances for the weekend that could impact the Daytona ARCA 200 and United Rentals 300 on Saturday, as well as the Great American Race on Sunday:

Latest Daytona 500 weather update: What's the forecast for Speedweek Saturday, Sunday's big race?

Daytona 500 starting lineup: Daytona Duels go to Bell, Reddick in Toyota sweep

Will it rain on the Daytona 500? What about Saturday's races?

The latest update to forecast models now call for a 70% chance of daytime showers on Saturday, increasing to a 90% chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday morning in Daytona Beach, according to meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

That doesn’t bode well for a full slate of Saturday races that includes a Cup Series final practice (10:30-11:20 a.m.); Xfinity Series qualifying (11:30 a.m.); ARCA Menards Series, Daytona ARCA 200 (1:30 p.m.); and the Xfinity Series, United Rentals 300, at 5 p.m.

“On Saturday, 1-3 inches of rain are predicted, with over 3 inches possible where we see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall,” said Kole Fehling, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne. “In addition, the showers could bring some gusty winds up to 40 mph after 4 p.m. on Saturday afternoon.”

For the 2:30 p.m. Sunday running of the Daytona 500, rain chances have now dropped from 70% earlier this week to 50%, according to the NWS extended forecast.

Nevertheless, scattered showers are still likely throughout the day, Fehling said.

“On Sunday, there’s a better chance to get some breaks in the rain than on Saturday, when it will be more persistent moderate to heavy rainfall,” he said.

What factors are contributing to rainy weekend forecast in Daytona Beach?

The high rain probability is tied to a cold front that is expected to sweep across the area Saturday into early Sunday morning, according to the NWS.

As the front arrives, weekend temperatures are expected to reach highs in the upper 60s on Saturday and a bit cooler, in the lower 60s, on Sunday. Nighttime lows are forecast to be in the 50s. In addition, winds out of the northwest are expected to be breezy on Sunday, with gusts of 20 mph possible.

Although some forecast models have indicated that the front might turn a little farther south to dump most of the rain to the south of Cape Canaveral, the consensus now has the system heading more directly toward Daytona Beach, Fehling said.

“It’s still a possibility that it will head more to the south, but it’s looking less likely,” he said. “The model consensus is that its going extending farther north and we will see heavy rainfall over Central Florida.”

Daytona Beach weather radar

Here’s the daily weather forecast for Daytona 500, NASCAR Speedweek

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Partly cloudy at night, with a low around 55. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 74. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming east southeast in the afternoon. A 20% chance of showers after 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy at night, with a low around 57. East wind around 5 mph becoming west in the evening.

Saturday: Showers likely, with a 70% chance of daytime rain mainly after 1 p.m. Nighttime rain chance is 90%, with north wind of 10-15 mph, gusting as high as 20 mph.

Sunday: A 50% chance of daytime showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. At night, a 30% chance of showers, mainly before 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Daytona 500 schedule: Here's a look at Speedweek events

Thursday, Feb. 15: ARCA Menards Series practice, 4:05-4:55 p.m.; Craftsman Truck Series practice, 5:05-5:55 p.m.; Cup Series, Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1, 7 p.m.; Cup Series, Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2, 8:45 p.m. (approx.)

Friday, Feb. 16: ARCA Menards Series qualifying, 1:30 p.m.; Craftsman Truck Series qualifying, 3 p.m.; Xfinity Series practice, 4:35-5:25 p.m.; Cup Series practice, 5:35-6:25 p.m.; Craftsman Truck Series, Fresh From Florida 250, 7:30 p.m.

Saturday, Feb. 17: Cup Series final practice, 10:30-11:20 a.m.; Xfinity Series qualifying, 11:30 a.m.; ARCA Menards Series, Daytona ARCA 200, 1:30 p.m.; Xfinity Series, United Rentals 300, 5 p.m.

Sunday, Feb. 18: 66th Daytona 500, 2:30 p.m.

How to watch Daytona 500, NASCAR races during Speedweek

Here's where you can catch this week's racing action during Speedweek and the 500:

Thursday: Duel at Daytona, two 150-mile qualifying races to the Daytona 500 lineup, 7:15 p.m. (FS1)

Friday: Truck Series race (Fresh From Florida 250), 7:30 p.m. (FS1)

Saturday: 200-mile ARCA Series race, 1:30 p.m. (FS1); Xfinity Series' United Rentals 300, 5 p.m. (FS1)

Sunday: Daytona 500, 2:30 p.m. (Fox)

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Thursday's Daytona 500 weather report for Speedweek and beyond