Duke basketball vs UNC: Scouting report, score prediction as new era begins

DURHAM – Jon Scheyer joked on Thursday that he has spent little time reflecting on last year’s losses to rival North Carolina.

It’s not like they don’t sting, and how could they not? The Tar Heels claimed two historic victories: A 94-81 win at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game, and an 81-77 triumph in the national semifinal that may have tipped the scales of the rivalry for good.

But the reason Duke’s first-year coach can focus on the future is that there are very few links to the past on his current roster.

“It would be like me and Jeremy (Roach) having a conversation with each other,” he said Thursday.

Maybe that’s a good thing as Duke (16-6, 7-4 ACC) hosts the Tar Heels (15-7, 7-4) on Saturday night (6:30 p.m., ESPN) in a game that will feature a national audience, ESPN’s "College GameDay" crew and a constant reminder of what occurred last year.

Here are some things to know and a score prediction ahead of Duke’s game against North Carolina.

SCHEYER: Duke-UNC basketball rivalry: Jon Scheyer's top moments as a player

BILAS: ESPN’s Jay Bilas: UNC basketball has ‘higher ceiling’ than Duke in NCAA Tournament

TURNING POINT:How Duke basketball found 'turning point' vs Wake Forest with most hated rival UNC next

Dariq Whitehead status

Scheyer has remained purposely vague about the status of freshman forward Dariq Whitehead, who suffered a lower left leg strain against Virginia Tech and has missed the past two games for the Blue Devils.

“I don’t want to guarantee it for sure, but I don’t want to rule it out,” Scheyer said this week.

Scheyer said Whitehead would play if he was able to practice on Friday. The five-star recruit is averaging 8.4 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game this season but has found another gear during the month before his injury. Duke is 2-0 without him but could use his scoring and defensive ability against the streaky Tar Heels.

A new era for Duke-UNC rivalry

Regardless of this rivalry’s history and reverence, Saturday will be different. It just will be.

There will be no Coach K or Roy Williams walking through the Cameron doors. Two years ago, these two coaches had a combined 70 years of experience, 2,000 wins and eight national titles.

Scheyer and UNC’s Hubert Davis have coached for less than three years combined, although Davis took the Tar Heels to the national title game last season.

For better or worse, this is the beginning of a new era for college basketball’s greatest rivalry – the start of new narratives and storylines. Let the games begin.

Can Duke stop Armando Bacot?

Bacot averaged 17 points and 14 rebounds against the Blue Devils last year, and the focus must be on slowing down UNC’s big man.

That will start with limiting his offensive rebounds and with Ryan Young and Dereck Lively staying out of early foul trouble. Duke is one of the ACC’s best-rebounding teams on both ends of the court.

Bacot is averaging a double-double again this season, and when he is extremely active – 15 shots or more – UNC is 4-0. He averaged 10.4 shot attempts in five of the Tar Heels’ seven losses.

Duke has its own double-double machine in freshman Kyle Filipowski. He leads the team with 15.8 points and 9.5 rebounds a game and has 11 double-doubles.

Defense is key

The Blue Devils allow 63.7 points per game, ranking them No. 40 nationally with only Virginia (No. 9) ahead of them in the ACC.

This season, Duke’s opponents have made 41.1% of their field goals and 30.1% of their 3-point attempts. North Carolina enters the game hitting 52.5% of its two-point shots but 31.3% from beyond the arc, which is on pace for the second-worst 3-point shooting season in program history.

The Tar Heels went 5-of-27 from 3 in Wednesday’s 65-64 loss to Pitt, which snapped a four-game winning streak. Duke is 11-0 at Cameron Indoor this season and has given up more than 70 points only twice at home.

Duke vs. UNC score prediction

Duke 75, UNC 74: Roach has said it all week: This game will “be a war.” Duke will be tested by a veteran UNC squad led by Bacot, R.J. Davis and Caleb Love, but the Blue Devils are at their best at home. The Tar Heels haven’t won three straight in Durham in more than a decade and are 2-4 on the road this season. It will come down to a few plays at the end, and I expect Filipowski to make a big shot for Duke.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Duke basketball vs UNC: Scouting report, score prediction