The DUP may abstain on Brexit deal vote to buy time with party still split

Ever since Rishi Sunak announced his new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, the DUP have been playing for time.

The Prime Minister increased the pressure on the DUP to get off the fence by scheduling a de facto vote on the Windsor Framework next Wednesday.

But Sir Jeffrey Donaldson can’t back the deal – and end the year-long boycott of Stormont over the Irish Sea border – until after local elections on May 18.

Supporting the new Windsor Framework could see the DUP lose seats to the virulently anti-Protocol Traditional Unionist Voice party, and ultimately cost Sir Jeffrey the leadership of his party.

He is struggling to contain divides between his politicians in Northern Ireland, who broadly favour a return to the Assembly, and those in Westminster, who do not.

How can he bridge those two camps without being accused of betrayal by one of the party’s several loose cannons?

Rejecting the deal outright is not an option at this stage.

The new Windsor Framework will be implemented in Northern Ireland with or without the DUP’s support.

Understandably, Sir Jeffrey has been keen to claim credit for the changes to the Protocol that have been banked.

Rejecting the new deal will sacrifice the slowly dissipating leverage for more concessions exerted by the Stormont boycott.

Far better now, for Sir Jeffrey to be seen as a player battling for a better deal from the big boys in London, Brussels, Dublin and Washington.

Joe Biden will be in Belfast in April to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

Maintaining the boycott against the wishes of the most powerful man in the world sends a message of strength to DUP supporters.

But the visit will also expose the DUP’s isolation as the only major party in Northern Ireland opposing the new deal – and the restoration of the executive – in a country sick and tired of the deadlock.

Momentum is shifting behind the Windsor Framework and against the DUP, which can’t rely on government support since it signed the agreement with the EU.

The European Research Group for Tory backbenchers, who claim to be DUP allies, have not revolted against their Prime Minister and look unlikely to do so.

The omens aren’t good for a party unceremoniously thrown under the bus by the Tories after Boris Johnson’s 2019 election triumph made the Protocol possible.

The longer Sir Jeffrey delays his decision, and the longer the DUP pore over the deal, the greater the risk its critics will tear it apart and make it impossible for him to accept.

Sir Jeffrey will remember how his former party, the UUP, was hollowed out after accepting the Good Friday Agreement. He needs to maximise his wins before it is too late.

After weeks of insisting he was neither positive or negative about the agreement and was waiting for legal analysis, he subtly changed his messaging this week.

He said that the new deal was a significant improvement on the Protocol but there were still areas of concern that needed clarification or change.

Sir Jeffrey can’t tell Rishi Sunak to get back to the negotiating room during Wednesday’s debate if he rejects or accepts the deal.

So he should tell his DUP MPs to abstain, which spares them the choice of rebelling or going down in history supporting an agreement hated by loyalists and hardline unionists.

This is purely symbolic as the vote will pass, with Labour support if necessary, but symbolism matters in Northern Ireland.

Sir Jeffrey stands no chance in getting the Windsor Framework changed but he could get “clarification” from the UK and EU.

Brussels has a long track record in producing supplementary, non-binding documents to “clarify” its treaties to secure domestic support for agreements from reluctant partners.

For Sir Jeffrey, such a document might be enough cover to allow him to end the boycott and return to Stormont once the May local elections are over.

Even that will lose the DUP support among loyalists and hardline unionists.

But Sir Jeffrey can gamble that the fear of another term with a Sinn Fein First Minister will see them return in force for the next Assembly elections.