When is the earliest the Marlins could clinch a playoff spot? A look at the scenarios

Jordan McPherson
·4 min read
6

With just four days left in the regular season, the Miami Marlins find themselves sitting in a playoff spot.

But it still remains a four-team race for the National League’s final two wild card spots.

Should the Marlins qualify for the postseason, it will be the first time since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and the first time in a full season since winning the World Series in 2003.

Also in contention for those final two wild card spots: The Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs and (to a lesser extent) the Cincinnati Reds. The three division champions have already been decided — the Atlanta Braves won the NL East, the Milwaukee Brewers the NL Central and Los Angeles Dodgers the NL West. The Philadelphia Phillies have secured one of the three wild card spots.

Here is where things stand through games played Wednesday for the Marlins and the rest of the teams still in contention for those two wild card spots.

What were the results from Wednesday’s games?

The Marlins split a doubleheader with the New York Mets on Wednesday, dropping the first game 11-2 and winning the nightcap 4-2.

The Cubs lost to the Braves 6-5 in 10 innings.

The Diamondbacks beat the Chicago White Sox 3-0.

The Reds lost to the Cleveland Guardians 4-3.

The current National League playoff standings

▪ NL East champion: Atlanta Braves (102-56)

▪ NL West champion: Los Angeles Dodgers (98-60)

▪ NL Central champion: Milwaukee Brewers (89-69)

▪ Wild Card 1: Philadelphia Phillies (89-69)

▪ Wild Card 2: Arizona Diamondbacks (84-74)

▪ Wild Card 3: Miami Marlins (82-76)

▪ First team out: Chicago Cubs (82-76)

▪ Second team out: Cincinnati Reds (81-78), one-and-a-half games behind the Marlins.

How do the Miami Marlins fare in tiebreaker scenarios?

The Marlins and Cubs have the same record through games played Wednesday, but the Marlins would be the team advancing if the season had ended at this point.

Why is that?

MLB’s first tiebreaker to determine playoff seeding —or, in this case, which team gets the final spot — is head-to-head record in the regular season. The Marlins went 4-2 against the Cubs this year, so Miami gets in over Chicago.

In fact, the Marlins own the tiebreaker against all three teams they are competing with for the final wild card spots.

Miami also went 4-2 against Arizona, taking the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Diamondbacks.

The Marlins and Reds went 3-3 against each other this season, but Miami owns the second tiebreaker — intradivision record, or record against divisional opponents. The Marlins are 26-25 against the NL East with one game left against the Mets. The Reds are 20-29 against the NL Central with three games left against the St. Louis Cardinals. No matter how Cincinnati does against St. Louis, its intradivision record will not surpass the Marlins’.

So, if the Marlins end up tied for a playoff spot with any of the three teams, Miami would make the playoffs.

When is the earliest the Marlins could clinch a playoff spot?

Theoretically, Miami could punch its ticket to the postseason as early as Friday.

Two things are required for that to happen: Miami has to win both of its games Thursday and Friday AND the Cubs have to lose both of their games Thursday and Friday.

If that happens, Miami will be 84-76 with two games to play. Neither the Cubs nor Reds would be able to finish the season with more than 84 wins at that point, and the Marlins own both individual tiebreaker against Cincinnati and Chicago as well as the three-team tiebreaker against them.

If the Marlins lose one of their next two games and/or the Cubs win one of their next two games, the playoff spot will still be up for grabs at least through Saturday and potentially up to the final day of the regular season on Sunday.

The Miami Marlins’ remaining schedule

The Marlins have four games left in the regular season, one against Mets at 7:10 p.m. Thursday and three at the Pittsburgh Pirates starting Friday.

As for the other teams in contention for wild card spots...

▪ The Cubs have four games left — one more game at the Braves and three at the Brewers.

▪ The Diamondbacks have four games left — one more game at the White Sox and three against the Houston Astros.

▪ The Reds are off Thursday before closing their season with three games at the Cardinals.