Early California primary election results show Proposition 1 passing by a narrow margin

A California ballot measure that restructures the state’s Mental Health Services Act (MHSA) and unlocks billions in bond funding for homeless housing and behavioral health treatment centers appeared poised to pass Tuesday evening.

Initial vote results after polls closed showed the ballot measure with 52% in favor and 47% opposed. By early Wednesday morning, though, the margin was razor thin, with 50.2% of California voters supporting the measure and 49.8% opposing.

The results come as polling for the ballot measure showed voter support for it flagging in the final days of the election, despite Gov. Gavin Newsom throwing his support — and fundraising prowess — behind it.

If the ballot measure passes, it will be a big win for Newsom, who cleared the primary election schedule so that it would be the only initiative voted on, and who has made it a signature part of his campaign to address the twin crises of homelessness and mental healthcare.

The two-pronged ballot measure would shift MHSA funding away from the counties and toward the state, with the intention of directing it toward behavioral health and substance abuse treatment, particularly for those who are in crisis or experiencing chronic homelessness. It also includes a $6.4 billion bond to fund new residential mental health and addiction treatment, and housing for veterans.

Supporters said that this was the original intent of the law and that the counties weren’t necessarily spending the MHSA funding in line with the vision of the act.

Critics argued the measure will result in disinvestment into vital county social services in favor of a “one size fits all” top-down approach from the state.

The proposition created unexpected alliances on both sides.

Supporters include law enforcement officers, veteran’s groups, prominent Democrats and unions like SEIU California, as well as major healthcare providers like Kaiser Permanente and Sutter Health. Critics of the measure include taxpayers associations, disability and mental health advocacy groups, and conservative county boards, such as Placer and El Dorado.

Fundraising vastly favored the Yes on 1 campaign, with more than $14 million raised. The No On 1 movement, by comparison, raised just $1,000, from a single donor.

Early results, however, showed that support fell along party lines: Many of the counties that voted against the measure are rural and also supported the effort to recall Newsom in 2021. From Siskiyou and Tehama in the North State, to Merced, Madera and Fresno in the Central Valley, and down to Inyo County in Southern California, conservative-leaning counties east of the state’s major metropolises did not support the measure.