Early voting is underway in NC. Who’s turning out?

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – With the in-person early voting period underway in North Carolina ahead of the Mar. 5 primary, data from the NC State Board of Elections shows turnout is down slightly compared to four years ago.

So far, there have been about 113,000 ballots cast in person and by mail. At the same point in 2020, there were about 120,000 ballots cast.

“The presidential and gubernatorial primaries are just not that competitive. So, I think that affects the overall turnout,” said Meredith College political expert David McLennan. “We may end up at or slightly below 2020, but that’s not a bad turnout.”

The NCSBE says in 2020, about 31% of registered voters participated in the primary.

In polling McLennan has done, he says slightly fewer people surveyed have said they’re likely to vote this time. He noted some key differences compared to other recent elections.

“We compare to 2022 or 2020, a lot of the campaigning is not as visible as it was. So, we don’t see a lot of these big events like we saw in 2020 for example,” he said. “Some candidates are really kind of on social media but not doing a lot of live events. So, I think it’s a different kind of campaign season. And, I think that’s affecting the kind of voter that’s not already connected with a candidate who may just be looking around or shopping.”

Of the people turning out so far, 37% are registered Democrats, 35% are Republicans and 27% are unaffiliated, according to NCSBE.

Catawba College political expert Michael Bitzer further analyzed the turnout data.

Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina can choose in which party’s primary they’d like to participate. Overall, about 53% of ballots cast have been in the Republican primary compared to the Democratic primary. Further, Baby Boomers make up 59% of all voters who’ve participated so far.

McLennan pointed out that overall Republicans have more competitive races this time, likely prompting some unaffiliated voters to choose that ballot.

The Republican-led General Assembly redrew the state’s Congressional districts as well as the state legislative districts last year. That resulted in more of North Carolina’s U.S. House districts favoring Republicans, making the primary critical in those races as they are not likely to be competitive in November.

“You know, I think there’s also just a lot of confusion around this election cycle because the congressional districts have been redrawn. Some of the legislative districts are different,” said McLennan.

Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, pointed out that about two-thirds of unaffiliated voters are choosing the Republican ballot this time, while a similar amount chose the Democratic ballot in 2020 when the presidential race was hotly contested.

“It’s crazy early, so these patterns are interesting but not predictive,” he said on X.

With voting underway, advocacy groups are trying to mobilize people and boost turnout. The Poor People’s Campaign held a press conference Tuesday, announcing a new multi-state campaign. In North Carolina, they’re urging people to rally and turn out on Mar. 2 ahead of Super Tuesday.

Rob Stephens, who represents Repairers of the Breach, chastised state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland) for saying last week that he thinks there are too many days to vote in North Carolina.

Moore told CBS 17 at the time, “I would think that one week of early voting should be sufficient. I like early voting. I like making it easier to vote. But, I think it’s just too long at three weeks. It adds a lot of cost.”

North Carolina’s in-person early voting period runs for 17 days.

Stephens said if Republicans attempt to cut early voting again, then lawsuits would likely follow, which is what happened last time they made such a move.

“There are competitive races in the primary that people need to pay attention to, for the Council of State, for other positions locally,” Stephens said. “We absolutely need to vote and vote our values and vote our demands.”

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