Early week warmth to spur severe weather threat in midwestern US

The threat for severe weather will ramp up over portions of the Midwest on Tuesday as warmth continues to expand across the region.

After temperatures topped out in the lower 50s in locations like Chicago to end the weekend, those craving fresh air due to widespread stay-at-home orders will want to take advantage of highs in the 70s for Tuesday.

While these warmer conditions may be a welcome relief to some, they will help to fuel the development of feisty thunderstorms.

"The combination of a front situated across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and a low pressure area moving along the boundary will serve as the set up for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.

Areas along and just to the south of this boundary will see the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms. Major Midwest metros such as Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Louisville, Kentucky, fall within the severe weather bullseye through Tuesday night.

"It is possible that thunderstorms will find a away to erupt farther to the east in portions of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia late Tuesday and Tuesday night," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tiffany Fortier stated.

Storms may even erupt through parts of the central Appalachians and over the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. These storms could pose a particular threat to places where COVID-19 drive-thru testing sites are in operation and especially to overwhelmed hospitals that may have tents set up outdoors to treat patients. High winds forced a drive-thru testing in Dallas to shut down temporarily last week.

Residents should have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and be prepared to take shelter quickly should dangerous storms approach. AccuWeather's MinuteCast® tool is a great way to know exactly how long to stay outdoors before thunderstorms will strike.

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Large hail, damaging wind gusts with an AccuWeather StormMax™ of 60 mph and torrential downpours will be the primary threats from these storms. The risk of a tornado will be low but not zero.

As severe weather is expected to continue overnight Tuesday, it'll be important for those living in and around the area of greatest threat to keep cell phones on and fully charged with the volume turned up to be notified when severe weather enters their area. Severe weather can be especially dangerous overnight as many people are asleep and unable to receive weather warnings.

The severe thunderstorms from Tuesday night may continue to charge eastward and target the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning.

However, the Midwest will not be fully out of the woods in terms of severe weather after Tuesday night.

"The region may be in the crosshairs of yet another severe weather event at midweek as a potent cold front swings through," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff.

At this time, it appears the greatest threat for heavy, gusty and locally severe thunderstorms during late Wednesday and Wednesday night will extend from the southern parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio to much of Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee as well as northwestern Mississippi.

The main threats at midweek will likely be from strong wind gusts, hail and flash flooding.

Chillier and drier air will enter the region behind the front, effectively ending the severe weather risk in the short-term across the region, according to Duff.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.