Eastern Shore, Southern and Western Maryland attract residents departing metro areas

A “first ever” State of the Economy report released Wednesday by Maryland’s top tax collector showed population movement to the Eastern Shore, Southern and Western Maryland regions, while also indicating lack of affordable housing statewide.

“Examining migration within Maryland shows … people moving away from the Baltimore and Washington, D.C., metro areas to the Eastern Shore, Southern Maryland and Western Maryland,” reads the introduction to the report’s section three. “The cost of housing may be one of the key factors driving the decision on where people live.”

The 100-plus page report is broken into four main sections, including the state’s economic trends, labor force participation trends, population and migration trends, and regional roundtable summaries.

In part to compile the document, the policy division of the comptroller’s office held roundtable discussions in Frostburg and Montgomery County’s Wheaton in June, Salisbury and Southern Maryland’s California in July, and Baltimore City in August. At least one representative from every county in the state was consulted in the process, the report said.

“This report will be a valuable tool for addressing some of our state’s economic challenges and leveraging our assets and opportunities,” said Maryland Comptroller Brooke Lierman, during the beginning of a Jan. 3 Board of Public Works meeting held at the State House in Annapolis.

More: 'Support our small businesses': Maryland comptroller issues call amid new economic numbers

Maryland’s population declined for the first time since World War II

The report also showed the state’s population declined in 2021 and 2022 for the first time since World War II and attributed that two-year trend to “increased domestic outmigration combined with longer-term decline in natural population growth.”

“The largest source of net outmigration of Marylanders is Florida,” the report said. “Data demonstrate that, over at least the last two decades, people have been moving to regions where the housing supply is expanding and moving away from regions where housing is becoming scarce.”

Reporting from October in the Florida Phoenix, based on U.S. Census data, indicated that the Sunshine State’s percent change of housing production from 2012 to 2022 was almost twice that of the Old Line State of Maryland (13.3% v. 6.9%).

A package of legislation is expected to be introduced in the coming Maryland General Assembly session, scheduled to begin Jan. 10, to address what the state’s Department Housing and Community Development secretary has described as a “housing crisis.”

More: Maryland Housing Secretary Day estimates 96,000-unit housing shortage. Bills aim to help.

“Nationally and within Maryland, people are generally moving from high cost to lower cost of living places, and housing costs are a major factor in the cost of living,” the report said.

Eastern Shore, Western Maryland counties showing population gains

A business owner in Talbot County on the Eastern Shore remarked that the town of St. Michaels is dominated with people from Washington, D.C., according to the report.

The Talbot County town 80 miles away from the nation’s capital could be part of a trend on the Eastern Shore, with once urban residents moving to more rural counties.

“The Eastern Shore stands out for the most dramatic (home) price increases,” the report said, “Eight of the top 10 (Maryland) counties for greatest increase in median home sales price are on the Eastern Shore.”

For the Talbot County business owner, it meant that, before the pandemic, all 10 of her employees could walk to work. Now, she’s the only one who can, and the younger workers have had to move away from their workplace in order to find housing they can afford.

But the while pandemic may have accelerated migration trends, the movement to the Shore’s nine counties was happening before the closures of 2020.

“Between 2015 and 2019, every county on the Eastern Shore experienced net positive intra-state migration,” the report said. “From 2019 through 2020, Somerset and Wicomico Counties gained on net, the most residents of all counties in the state from both in-state residents and out-of-state residents, and Worcester County (home of Ocean City) ranked fourth in intra-state migration.”

More: State moves up 20 spots in economic momentum, but are Western MD, Eastern Shore seeing it?

The Lower Shore counties were not alone in gains in migration from individuals moving from elsewhere in Maryland during that stretch.

“From 2019 through 2020, the three counties of Western Maryland (Garrett, Allegany, and Washington) gained a net total of 3,314 people from other parts of the state,” the report said. “They lost a net total of 1,782 people to other states” during that period.

The conclusion paragraph of the report’s migration section indicated something yet to be determined: “In Maryland, it is unclear what effect remote work has had on migration patterns.”

Dwight A. Weingarten is an investigative reporter, covering the Maryland State House and state issues. He can be reached at dweingarten@gannett.com or on Twitter at @DwightWeingart2.

This article originally appeared on Salisbury Daily Times: 'First ever' Maryland State of Economy report shows population shifts