Economic forecast cites housing, labor migration as Ventura County's big challenges

Housing, labor migration and internet access are among the largest factors impacting Ventura County's economic future, according to a local panel of experts.

The panel convened during the 30th Economic Outlook Forecast, an annual event that focuses on the direction of the county's economy and the influences moving it.

The event, sponsored by the Thousand Oaks Rotary Club, was held Friday morning at California Lutheran University.

After introductory remarks from CLU President Lori Varlotta and Thousand Oaks Mayor Bob Engler, the microphone was passed to Matthew Fienup, executive director for CLU's Center for Economic Research and Forecasting.

Fienup noted the pandemic left a major dent on Ventura County's economy, a fact reflected in economic data: After years of stagnancy, Ventura County's GDP grew 2.6% in 2019, but the pandemic wiped out all growth in 2020.

"Unfortunately, the pandemic makes many of those drivers of the underlying weakness even worse," Fienup said.

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Chief among the county's economic inequality factors is the lack of affordable housing. Fienup said the median home price surged 31% in Ventura County during the pandemic and the shortage of affordable housing options for lower-income residents has made living here unsustainable.

This has led to another factor impacting the Ventura County economy: a shrinking labor force.

"Population decline has accelerated in Ventura County as a result of the pandemic, and that is largely the result of domestic migration," Fienup said.

Fienup clarified people were still arriving in Ventura County as a result of trends like urban flight. However, the amount of people moving here was less than the number leaving.

"It's largely younger, lower-income individuals earlier in their careers leaving the county, and it's higher wealth folks from Los Angeles moving out to Ventura County," Fienup said.

Other trends affecting the county's economic future were not unique to Ventura County. One example Fienup discussed was inflation, which reached a 40-year high last month at 7.5% and will continue to be a factor in the coming decade, according to forecasts.

Bruce Stenslie, CEO of the Economic Development Collaborative, spoke next and brought up other challenges, including disproportionate distribution of federal aid to local businesses.

Although Stenslie noted nearly 50% of Ventura County businesses received Paycheck Protection Program loans, those least likely to receive aid were small, local businesses.

"There was a marked and disproportionate slower recovery for firms with workers fewer than 20 employees," Stenslie said.

Another challenge facing Ventura County's economy is the "digital divide." Stenslie's research found over 12% of Ventura County households did not have an internet connection or computer, and 34% had difficulty sustaining the costs associated with internet access.

"Why does this matter? Because we are moving inexorably in the direction of accessing healthcare digitally," Stenslie said, as well as education, services of all kinds and remote work.

Despite the many challenges the county faces, several solutions aimed at addressing impacts are underway.

Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, D-Westlake Village, spoke about a $5 million grant from the state last year to address the technical divide among wage sectors.

The grant will fund a 3-year pilot program to teach hundreds of Ventura County residents digital literacy and technical skills to help bridge the income divide and provide access to higher-income jobs.

"We hope that this pilot is actually put together in a way that can be replicated across the state to really deal with one of those fundamental issues that we've been looking at," Irwin said.

Jeremy Childs is a breaking news and public safety reporter covering the night shift for the Ventura County Star. He can be reached by calling 805-437-0208 or emailing jeremy.childs@vcstar.com. You can also find him on Twitter @Jeremy_Childs.

This article originally appeared on Ventura County Star: Ventura County economic forecast challenge analyzes housing, labor