Economist: Primaries a financial boon for Valdosta

Apr. 17—VALDOSTA — Moving Georgia's election primaries to an earlier date would give Valdosta a significant financial payoff, an economist said Friday.

"There's a huge upside (for Valdosta) due to its proximity to Florida," said Thomas More Smith, Ph.D., an economist at Emory University in Atlanta.

Smith performed an analysis on how moving Georgia primaries forward on the calendar would impact the state and several metro regions within it. The report was commissioned by the Democratic National Committee.

In the 2020 presidential campaign season, both Republican and Democratic primaries in Georgia were held June 9; they had been scheduled for March 24 but had been pushed back due to COVID-19 problems.

"The fact that President Donald Trump was running without a serious challenger in the Republican primary and that (Joe) Biden formally secured enough delegates to win his party's nomination on June 2 essentially rendered the Georgia primary inconsequential. As such, campaigns of either party invested little to no time or money in the state during the primary season," the report stated.

However, both parties sank significant sums and resources into four states that had the earliest primaries — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, Smith said in the report. In February, the DNC proposed moving Georgia up to fourth place in the slate of early primary states.

Smith used past campaign data to project where candidates are likely to maintain offices in Georgia in the 2024 and 2028 election seasons.

The list includes five office locations in metro Atlanta as well as offices in Augusta, Macon, Columbus, Savannah, Athens and Valdosta.

Valdosta's location on the border with Florida makes the city especially attractive to candidates who want easy access to both states, Smith said.

The earlier in the campaign the primaries are, the better the payoff for cities with candidates' offices, he said. Early on in the elections, when there can be 10-12 candidates for just one party, most will want to open offices in key cities, while waiting until later in the campaign cuts down the number of possible offices as candidates drop out.

Offices mean staff and staff means goods and services must be obtained — furniture rented, toilet paper purchased, power bills paid and the like.

"In economics, one person's income becomes another person's income," Smith said.

Smith's calculations showed that candidates could spend more than $419,000 in Valdosta in the 2024 campaign season just on office space and office necessities.

"Anyone who deals in goods and services would do well," Smith said.

Then came events — rallies and campaign stops. Those would require another $261,000 spent in Lowndes County, Smith's numbers show.

Valdosta is no stranger to high-powered campaign stops; in 2016, presidential candidate Donald Trump visited the city during the primary season, and in 2020 President Trump returned to the Azalea City to stump for Republican candidates on the eve of a critical runoff election.

Spending for print and television advertisements together in the metro Valdosta area would near $2.6 million, the report states. Wage spending connected with the campaigns would hit $2.9 million locally, according to the report.

Altogether, Valdosta could see an economic impact of $6.32 million with an expedited primary schedule, the report states.

Terry Richards is the senior reporter for The Valdosta Daily Times.