Editorial: Whaley needs dramatic surge to beat DeWine

Tuesday's midterm election is packed with races that will not only determine the direction of Ohio but the nation. While polling suggests some candidates have their races all sewn up, the outcome of other hotly contested races won't be known until all the votes are counted Tuesday night, and perhaps even later than that. Ohio might not be considered the battleground swing state it once was, but the eyes of the nation will be on the Buckeye State and the pivotal congressional races here that could decide the balance of power in Washington, D.C.

The Enquirer editorial board has been following campaigns of those running for Ohio governor, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives during this election cycle, and met with some of the candidates to discuss their policy points and reasons for running. While the editorial board no longer endorses candidates for office, we will provide readers with insight we gleaned from our time with the candidates and observing them on the campaign trail.

Starting with the gubernatorial race, we explain what each candidate needs to emerge victorious on Election Day and what key aspects of their campaigns might resonate with voters. It is our hope that this summary provides information that enhances your own evaluation of these races and helps you make an informed decision on Nov. 8.

Why Mike DeWine could win

Ohio is no longer a purple state: Donald Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2020. In a midterm election with voters worried about the economy and inflation, it isn’t surprising to see a low-key Republican governor rolling up the score on Democrats.

Leadership matters. During the COVID-19 crisis, DeWine navigated difficult political waters better than most. A majority of voters think he did a good job in a bad situation (at one point DeWine was the most popular governor in the country) and Ohio fared better than other states when it came to balancing the health, economic, and educational priorities during the crisis.

DeWine held onto the Republican base. Although Ohio is a Republican state, disagreements between the pro-Trump and establishment forces in the party could have turned into a real headache for DeWine. It’s true that the governor’s decisions put him at odds with Republicans in the Statehouse from time to time. But he didn’t let those differences devolve into a personal war with the state party or the former Republican president. As a result, DeWine has been able to hold the base of his party together, even while his independent streak attracts voters who don’t always align with the GOP.

Ohio governor 2022:Where do Mike DeWine, Nan Whaley stand on jobs, abortion, marijuana

Why Nan Whaley could win

Is there such a thing as a November surprise? By all accounts, something dramatic has to happen for Nan Whaley to pull out a victory in this race.

Whaley will need a Democratic voter surge, led by pro-choice women outraged by the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade and Republican efforts in Columbus to ban abortion in the state. She also will have to hope there are some Republican voters still upset by DeWine's handling of COVID are still holding a grudge and might withhold their vote.

The former Dayton mayor was hamstrung by DeWine's refusal to publicly debate her. But Whaley could find support from voters turned off by what could be perceived as DeWine's disrespect of the first female ever nominated for governor. Whaley doesn't have nearly the name recognition of DeWine, but she rose to prominence statewide and nationally through her handling of a tragic mass shooting in Dayton's Oregon District in 2019.

Democrats are playing the long game. Though defeating an amiable Republican incumbent in a Republican-wave election year is nearly impossible, Democrats see a bright future for Whaley. Already experienced at the local level, Whaley now has statewide name recognition, and experience and support in all corners of the state. Though this election is a tough one for Democrats, the party will be looking for leaders who can redefine and refocus the party going forward. Whaley has set herself up nicely to represent her party in future statewide election and in a different year and a different race, she will be a formidable candidate.

Opinion and Engagement Editor Kevin S. Aldridge and Board member Mack Mariani write this on behalf of The Enquirer's editorial board, which includes Editor Beryl Love, Senior News Director of Content Jackie Borchardt and community board members Jackie Congedo and Rachel Citak.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Editorial: Whaley needs dramatic surge to beat DeWine