Egg prices are soaring; migratory birds and free-range chickens might be part of problem

You already know about egg prices.

If you've bought a dozen in the past few months, you know the incredible edible egg is a lot more costly than it used to be.

Related: Bird flu outbreak is spilling over into mammals. What does that mean for humans?

What you might now know is that there's a good chance prices will remain high for much of 2023, or longer.

A key reason is that avian flu — perhaps the main reason egg prices climbed from as low as $1.33 a dozen in August 2020 to $4.25 in December — continues to be a concern.

That's according to Gino Lorenzoni, who has been studying poultry for more than 20 years as a veterinarian and professor of poultry science and avian health at Pennsylvania State University's College of Agricultural Sciences.

A deadly flu

Avian or bird flu has been around for a long time. And like the flu that affects humans, it's always changing.

"The strain varies from time to time," Lorenzoni, said. "It's known to mutate fairly easily."

The most recent version is a bad one.

It's killed more than 50 million chickens, including about 40 million laying hens, or more than 10% of the hens that produce the 96 billion or so eggs that Americans eat each year.

Inflation, supply-chain issues, and worker shortages all have contributed to sticker shock, driving eggs north of $7 at some retailers.

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But the loss of millions of hens is the biggest factor and it's why egg prices won't likely be much better by Easter or possibly for months after that.

"There are less eggs and the same number of consumers," Lorenzoni said. "As long as we don't have more layers, this price trend may stay in place."

The hens won't be quickly replaced.

More:We compared prices at Erie-area grocery stores to measure inflation's impact on your wallet

"They are difficult to get and it takes a little time to raise them from baby chicks," Lorenzoni said. "It will take 18 weeks until they can lay eggs."

And there's a pecking order to who gets them and when.

"The parent flocks are on a schedule and we put in an order for those chicks a year in advance," Lorenzoni said. "Replacing all 40 million hens will be a process that will take several months, maybe a year or more."

How does avian flu spread?

Migratory birds, including ducks and geese, as well as some migrating owls and hawks, are primarily responsible for the spread of avian flu, Lorenzoni said.

Bird migration has stopped for the season and the spread of the disease has slowed, he said.

But the respite might not last for long.

"Now, in the next few weeks, we are going to experience a little bit warmer weather. Birds are going to start moving again." That may bring a new wave of virus, he said.

A safe place for the flock

For farmers, the best defense is to keep their birds inside and away from predators and other birds, Lorenzoni said.

That might pose a serious challenge to a growing group of farmers who tout the benefits of organic and free-range chickens that spend much of their time outside.

At least for now, "Ideally, we should try to keep the flocks indoors," Lorenzoni said. "The organic producers can request permits that will allow them to keep their poultry inside while still keeping their organic certification."

Egg producers have other tools to control the spread of disease, including biosecurity or, as Lorenzoni describes it, the simple act of keeping things clean.

He said most of the nation's larger poultry producers follow protocols to prevent the avian flu from being carried from one barn to the next.

"We need to wear dedicated boots inside our barns," he said. "All the clothes you were wearing before must remain outside the barn."

It sounds like a simple prescription, but Lorenzoni is convinced it will mean fewer euthanized chickens and lower prices for eggs.

"I think the larger farmers are all on board, but some of the small flock owners might not have the same level of information," he said.

Somewhere in between massive commercial operations with hundreds of thousands of hens and backyard farmers with 10 to 20 chickens are people like Nate and Morgani Gilmore, owners of Steel Toe Farm in Erie County's Franklin Township.

In addition to pigs, beef cattle, and turkeys, the couple keeps a couple of hundred chickens at a time, including animals raised for both meat and eggs.

Nate Gilmore counts himself as lucky. There haven't been many reports of avian flu in his area and he's not had any problems on his own farm.

"We take biosecurity pretty seriously," he said. "There are no chickens from other farms allowed on our farm. There is a spigot for washing boots if someone does come from another farm."

Gilmore said he understands that others have different views, but stands by his decision to let his birds run free.

"The overall health of the birds being outside — where they are supposed to be — I guess the morality of it for me is worth the risk," he said.

But Gilmore said he remains vigilant.

"We pay very close attention to our animals and we know what our normal mortality rate is," he said. "If you are seeing an increase, you really need to be on top of that."

Bird health isn't the only reason that coloring Easter eggs might require a more substantial investment this year. Gilmore said that on top of higher fuel costs, his feed costs are up about 30%.

While bird flu poses a risk to birds, Lorenzoni said there is no risk to humans.

"The general public is safe when we are talking about consuming eggs and consuming meat," he said.

Email Jim Martin at jmartin@timesnews.com.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Erie egg prices are at historic levels: Avian flu is to blame