'Either one of these guys could win': Political consultant Rove talks Trump, Biden in Palm Beach

Former President Donald Trump is just as likely as President Joe Biden to win the 2024 presidential race, political consultant Karl Rove said Tuesday.

During a presentation at the Society of the Four Arts as part of the Esther B. O’Keeffe Speakers Series, the former senior adviser and deputy White House chief of staff to President George W. Bush said he expected November's election to mirror the previous two and come down to a small number of votes in several swing states.

"Either one of these guys could win," Rove said during his hour-long presentation “America’s Challenges Amidst Its Broken Politics” at the Walter S. Gubelmann Auditorium.

"The 2020 election was settled by 44,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. The 2016 election was settled by 88,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think this one is going to come down to that as well."

Rove, who predicted a Trump win in a recent column for The Wall Street Journal, said the election will come down to three key factors.

The first is how both men comport themselves on the campaign trail. Each one, he said, is their own worst enemy.

"Joe Biden has that senior shuffle," Rove said. "He's got an inability to string together a few sentences, and if it gets worse, it's going to hurt him. On the other hand, with Donald Trump, we saw it in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa he was humble, restrained, and appreciative of the votes of the people of that state. In New Hampshire, it was 19 wild, crazy minutes."

The second factor in the election is whether there's going to be a debate between the two candidates, Rove said. During primary season, Trump has not appeared on the debate stage alongside his opponents for the Republican nomination, and there has been no debate on the Democratic side.

"We've had debates since 1960, with one exception," Rove said. "I think what we're going to see is a demand by the American people to see these two men on the stage, and that could have a huge impact — bigger than 1980, and bigger than any debate we've ever seen."

The final factor for both candidates, Rove said, is the role of third parties in the election. He noted the potential impact of candidates such as Cornel West and Robert Kennedy — both running as independents — as well as a No Labels party candidate pulling votes from the two front-runners.

Voters may look to a third-party candidate, Rove said, because neither Biden nor Trump is popular.

"People do not want these two candidates," he said, noting that 55.8% "as of yesterday in the Real Clear Politics average, rated Joe Biden unfavorably, and 55.3 rated Donald Trump unfavorably." He went on to say that "70% of the American people would prefer to have two other candidates."

During his presentation Tuesday, which began with a historical look at American's often-fractured political system, Rove also answered a handful of election-related questions from the audience.

Does former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley have a chance against Trump to win the Republican nomination?

"She has a chance, but it's a big uphill fight. The expectation was, if she was to have a real chance, she had to pull off a good, strong second-place finish in Iowa and either nip him at the polls at the finish line in New Hampshire, or come in a very close second. Neither of those happened."

Should President Biden ask Vice President Kamala Harris step aside as a running mate?

"She's not going anywhere, and he can't ask her to leave. If you had to define one group that is the base of the Democratic party, it would be Black women, particularly older Black women who are a moderate bloc inside the Democrats. There's no way that he's going to be able to replace her. He's stuck. In fact, if he's not the nominee, whoever the nominee is, will be stuck with her.

"If he decides not to be the candidate, she is not going to be the nominee of the Democratic party. They know what a disaster she's been, so they're not going to be put her front and center. But on the other hand, they're not going to remove her either, and she's not going to allow them to remove her."

How important is the vice presidential pick for Trump?

"It's absolutely important. The vice president is going to be an impact in this election where it normally is inconsequential. It's going to be an impact on the Democratic side, because it's going to cause people to say that they don't like Trump, but they really don't want to see someone like her (Harris) to become president in case something happens to Biden. He's going to be 82.

"On the Republican side, it's going to be important because it's going to give people a chance to say he (the VP pick) will be a moderating influence, not moderating in terms of political ideology, but in terms of behavior. That's a steady, solid person. That's a Mike Pompeo, or that's a Tim Scott, or that's a Glenn Youngkin, or that's a fill-in-the-blank somebody who will play the role of being able to be the emissary from the White House to the Hill and to outside groups, and will be a moderating influence in helping the president navigate the tough challenges he faces. It's going to be an unusual election in so many respects."

When will Trump select a vice president, who will it be, and why?

"He says he's already made that decision. I don't know if that's true, but it may be. I don't know who he's going to pick. There are two ways to go. First of all, he's not going to be Ronald Reagan. He's not going to take Nikki Haley, like Reagan chose George H.W. Bush, to unite the party. He's not going to do that. There are two different paths. One path is who really likes me? Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik — these are at least plausible. Others are not so plausible — Kari Lake.

"But the other one is, who can bring something to the ticket and to me being an effective president, in which case that is like Tim Scott, who knows the Senate and can help him on Capitol Hill. He knows his way around Washington. I have a good relationship with him, and he's an articulate, exciting figure. Or Glenn Youngkin. He's a business guy like me, and he's doing a great job as governor of Virginia. There are others. But I think it really boils down to what's the primary thing."

Rove's appearance was the last of four scheduled in January as part of the Society of the Four Arts' Esther B. O’Keeffe Speakers Series.

The February schedule features: Nicholas Calloway, “67 Nights in the Sistine Chapel,” (Feb. 6); Kate Rothko Prizel and Christopher Rothko, "The Rothkos in Conversation: Philip Rylands in discussion with the Rothko children,"(Feb. 13); Thomas Friedman, "The Big Trends Shaping the World Today: Economics, Technology, and Geopolitics," (Feb. 20); and David Zaslav, " 'The Stuff That Dreams Are Made Of’ ... 100 Years of Thrilling Audiences and Shaping Culture Through Storytelling," (Feb. 27).

For information or to purchase tickets, visit fourarts.org/okeeffe-speaker-series/.

Jodie Wagner is a journalist at the Palm Beach Daily News, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach her at jwagner@pbdailynews.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Daily News: 2024 election will be close, Karl Rove tells Palm Beach audience