El Niño could get strong this winter, new NOAA forecast says. What that means for SC weather

Patrick McCreless
·2 min read
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South Carolina may have a wetter, colder winter if El Niño strengthens as expected, a new forecast shows.

El Niño is expected to gain power over the next few months and could become strong this winter, impacting South Carolina weather and hurricane season in the process, the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states.

Weak El Niño conditions are currently in place after weather officials declared it was underway last month. There is a 90% chance El Niño will continue through the winter and an 81% chance the event will peak to a moderate-to-strong intensity range between November and January, NOAA states.

There is also a one in five chance that El Niño will become “historically strong” and rival 2015-16 and 1997-98 events, NOAA adds.

How could a strong El Niño impact SC?

According to the National Weather Service, a stronger El Niño could cause more rainfall and colder temperatures than average during winter in South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast.

The extra rainfall from El Niño can vary drastically geographically in South Carolina, a study from the S.C. State Climatology Office at the S.C. Department of Natural Resources.

The 2015 study, which measured rainfall in the state over several decades, shows that, for instance, Charleston had an average 47% increase in rainfall during strong El Niño winters and a 15% average increase during moderate to weak El Niño winters. Meanwhile, Columbia had an average 27% jump in rain during strong El Niño winters and an 18% increase during moderate to weak El Niño winters.

Overall across the state, there was a 23% to 56% increase in precipitation during strong El Niño winters, the study shows.

Hurricane season

An upside to El Niño is the possibility of a weaker hurricane season. During El Niño, the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin experience stronger shearing winds, which tend to limit the amount and intensity of storms and hurricanes.

However, a recent updated forecast from Colorado State University predicts that a warmer Atlantic Ocean may cause an above normal hurricane season despite El Niño.