El Niño expected to bring more precipitation to Knoxville this winter. But will it snow?

The first snowfall of the season blanketed Mount LeConte with more than 3 inches of snow on Oct. 16, exciting snow lovers.

Despite the season’s first snowfall in the mountains, “We’re not expecting any of that down here” meteorologist Andrew Moulton told Knox News.

This winter, Knoxville could see a total snowfall of just under 5 inches – just not all at once.

The peak chances for Knoxville snow are usually during January and February, Moulton explained. The average snowfall in the area during the season is 4.6 inches according to National Weather Service data.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects an overall normal winter here in East Tennessee even though El Niño – a natural warming of the Pacific Ocean – is strengthening and could impact weather in states north and south of Tennessee this season.

What is the winter forecast for Knoxville?

Temperatures in our area should be normal during the winter months, Moulton said. Knoxville’s monthly average temperature during the season ranges from 39 to 50 degrees, according to local NWS data, keeping in mind that there will likely be colder and warmer periods.

There is also an expected uptick in precipitation this season compared to previous years. The Climate Prediction Center and Farmers’ Almanac predict a “wetter than normal” season across the southern states.

“If that falls as snow or rain depends on each individual event,” Moulton said.

Watch out for any freezing rain in the forecast and ice on the roads, too. Moulton noted precipitation usually drains well in the Knoxville area and major throughways like Interstate 40 have enough traffic to prevent significant icing, but neighborhood and secondary roads can become icy when that happens.

When does winter start?

This season, winter is Dec. 21, 2023-March 19, 2024. The Farmers’ Almanac expects Knoxville’s first frost around Oct. 22.

Knoxville has seen snow as early as late October, but Moulton doesn’t expect that to be the case this year. The highest chances for snow are January and February and decreases as winter tapers off during March and April.

"We do not expect a white Christmas," the Farmers' Almanac states.

Though it’s hard to predict exactly how much snow winter will bring to Knoxville this year, snow lovers can hold on to some hope.

“All it takes is one event for it to happen,” Moulton added. “It's a forecast, not a guarantee.”

How does El Niño impact winter weather in Tennessee?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern when trade winds weaken in the Pacific Ocean, pushing warmer waters toward the west coast of the Americas, according to NOAA. The phenomenon occurs every two to seven years and impacts global weather.

As the jet stream moves south of its natural position, “the southern third of the U.S. typically experiences wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern third sees higher chances for below-normal precipitation,” USA TODAY reports.

Tennessee is expected to have a cold and wet winter because of El Niño, according to the Farmers’ Almanac. Overall, the southeast is predicted to experience a wetter than normal season with average temperatures.

Devarrick Turner is a trending news reporter. Email devarrick.turner@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter @dturner1208.

Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: How El Niño impacts Knoxville, Tennessee, winter weather forecast