Will El Niño wash out SC with extra rain through early spring? What NOAA’s 3-month forecast says

Patrick McCreless
·2 min read

South Carolinians may want to keep their umbrellas close by over the next three months.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently released its three-month forecast and it shows South Carolina may face a good bit of above normal rainfall through April. The forecast is in line with warnings about El Niño’s potential impact on the state and the Southeast since last year.

SC rain forecast

According to NOAA, the Midlands, most of the Upstate and PeeDee region can expect an 40% to 50% chance of rainfall leaning above average from February through April. Meanwhile, the Lowcountry and coastal areas of the state should expect a greater 50% to 60% chance of rainfall likely above average for the next three months.

A U.S. map showing rain predictions for February through April. screenshot/Courtesy of NOAA Climate Prediction Center
A U.S. map showing rain predictions for February through April. screenshot/Courtesy of NOAA Climate Prediction Center

El Niño and SC impact

El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide, NOAA states. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed east toward the west coast of the U.S.

According to the National Weather Service, stronger El Niños like what is underway this year have been known to cause more rainfall than average during winter in South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast. Officials declared in June 2023 that El Niño had begun and the weather phenomenon gained strength over the following months.

According to NOAA’s latest update, a strong El Niño remains in place and there is a 73% chance it will end in the April to June period. The strongest El Niño on record occurred during late 1997 through early 1998, according to the S.C. Department of Natural Resources.

“This El Niño was responsible for the very wet conditions in the Southeast including the second wettest winter on record for South Carolina,” DNR states.

However, the Climate Center has noted that while strong El Niño events increase the chances of El Niño-related climate anomalies like more rain, that does not mean those impacts will happen in all locations or be of strong intensity.