Election 2024: Watch these California races that experts say could decide House majority
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Questions surround who will succeed Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a prolific fundraiser and advocate for California Republican candidates, in his red San Joaquin Valley seat.
The broader impact of McCarthy’s retirement could be on vulnerable GOP incumbents and the U.S. House majority.
“It’s impossible to imagine a Republican congressional candidate in California getting the same level of consideration and support in the future than they did under McCarthy,” said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at the University of Southern California and former GOP consultant. “That’s not because other party leaders are going to be vindictive or stupid. They’re just not going to understand the state.”
McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, said his next steps would include getting Republicans elected. He will resign Sunday, Dec. 31, after having been ousted as Speaker of the House of Representatives in October.
Before McCarthy said he’d retire, election analysts cited 10 hotly contested California elections for the House that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans hold power in 2025.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and Elections Daily rank districts by partisan advantage based on a wide array of factors. Nonpartisan forecasters rate close elections as a “toss-up,” “leaning” or “likely” to go for a Democrat or Republican. Projections will shift as more details about 2024 races emerge through the March primary and November elections.
California’s secretary of state has a Dec. 28 deadline to certify candidates for the March 5 primary.
These are California’s closest House races, according to experts:
Likely Republican
3rd Congressional District
Most analysts believe Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, will likely keep his seat. The district stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley.
Democrat Jessica Morse, a wildfire prevention specialist who in 2018 ran against Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, is contesting Kiley. Robert Smith, an Army veteran, is running without a party preference.
40th Congressional District
The analysts concur that Rep. Young Kim, R-Anaheim Hills, will probably win in 2024. The 40th holds parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
Her Democratic challengers are Joe Kerr, a retired Orange County fire captain; and Allyson Muñiz Damikolas, a Tustin Unified School District trustee.
Leans Republican
41st Congressional District
Most forecasters predict Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, has a slight advantage in the 41st.
Calvert had his closest House race in more than a decade in 2022, edging out Democrat Will Rollins by less than 4 percentage points. Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, is in for a 2024 rematch.
Also running is Democrat Anna Nevenic, a registered nurse who garnered the fewest amount of votes in last year’s primary.
45th Congressional District
All the experts think Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach, will edge out an opponent in the 45th, which takes in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties.
She faces four Democrats: Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, a Garden Grove city council member; Derek Tran, a personal injury lawyer and business owner; Cheyenne Hunt, a Gen Z TikTok influencer and former Senate aide; and Aditya Pai, an affordable housing attorney.
Toss-up
13th Congressional District
The election in the 13th is expected to be a nail-biter again: It had the nation’s second-closest House race in 2022.
Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, beat former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, by fewer than 600 votes. They will vie for the seat again in 2024.
There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the 13th, which holds all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties. Voters there backed President Joe Biden in 2020 by 11 percentage points.
22nd Congressional District
Analysts largely think Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is in a 2024 toss-up.
Former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, will run again. Valadao beat Salas on a 3% margin in 2022.
They face State Sen. Melissa Hurtado, D-Bakersfield, and Republican Chris Mathys, a businessman and ardent supporter of former President Donald Trump.
The 22nd, which has more Democrats than Republicans and picked Biden by 13 points in 2020, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties.
Valadao survived tough elections in this area before, having lost and regained his House seat on slim margins in 2018 and 2020, respectively.
27th Congressional District
Most experts foresee a toss-up in the 27th. Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, represents the northern Los Angeles County district.
George Whitesides, the former CEO of Virgin Galactic and an Obama-administration chief of staff of NASA, is Garcia’s main Democratic challenger.
Also running as a Democrat is Steve Hill, a small business owner and self-proclaimed Satanist who has frequently run for public office but not won.
Leans Democratic
47th Congressional District
Forecasters are divided on whether Democrats have a clear advantage in the district that Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, is vacating. Porter is among a handful of House Democrats running to succeed late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
The 2024 field for the Orange County district drew 10 candidates.
Republican Scott Baugh, a business attorney who represented Orange County in the Assembly from 1995 to 2000 and lost to Porter on a 3.4% margin last year, is running again.
State Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine, garnered Porter’s endorsement; he was arrested in May for driving under the influence. Joanna Weiss, the founder of Women for American Values and Ethics, is a former litigator running as a Democrat.
Other contenders are Republicans Max Ukropina, a business owner, and Long Pham, a businessman and perennial candidate; Democrats Boyd Roberts, a realtor, and Shariq Zaidi, a security officer; and no-party-preference candidates Bill Smith, a retired attorney, Tom McGrath, a chemical engineer, and Terry Crandall, an economics professor.
Likely Democratic
9th Congressional District
Three of the analysis organizations think that the Stockton-anchored district held by Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, is likely rather than safely Democratic.
Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln is the leading GOP challenger. He is joined by Republicans John McBride, a strength and conditioning coach; and Khalid Jafri, an engineer and small business owner.
49th Congressional District
The consensus is that Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, will likely have the upper-hand in 2024. The 49th covers northern coastal areas of San Diego County.
He faces four Republicans: Matt Gunderson, an auto businessman who was a close runner-up for state senate in 2022; Sheryl Adams, an automotive technology executive; Margarita Wilkinson, a global media company executive; and Kate Monroe, the founder and CEO of an organization that helps veterans obtain benefits.
