Election Day in NC: Republicans predict red wave, Democrats see path to victory

In the election ending on Tuesday, are North Carolina’s Republicans riding a red wave election that will send Ted Budd to the United States Senate, give the Republicans control of the U.S. House, give them control of the N.C. Supreme Court, and re-establish their unfettered power in the North Carolina General Assembly?

Or can the Democrats come from behind and send Cheri Beasley to the U. S. Senate, hold back the GOP in Congress, keep the Democratic majority control of the N.C. Supreme Court, and prevent the Republicans from getting unchecked supermajority control of the North Carolina General Assembly?

Two political consultants in North Carolina — one a Republican, the other a Democrat — each expressed optimism for their side in this year’s midterm election.

“The state of Joe Biden’s economy has opened the door to a Red Wave,” Republican consultant Paul Shumaker of Capitol Communications said in a memo Oct. 6. He reiterated that in an interview on Friday.

“I think Democrats have put themselves in position to win these races,” said Shumaker’s Democratic counterpart, Morgan Jackson of Nexus Strategies. “It’s all going to come down to turnout. It’s getting out the vote.”

Meanwhile, as of this weekend, more than 2.15 million North Carolinians had already voted, either via in-person early voting or by mail, according to Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer. He is part of a group of academics who closely analyze North Carolina elections. The early vote in 2022 is about 82,500 more than who early voted in the 2018 midterms, Bitzer said on Twitter.

The pre-Election Day turnout was about 29% of registered voters.

In-person early voting ended Saturday.

The North Carolina VoteTracker, operated by the politically right-leaning John Locke Foundation, said as of Monday morning that 38.2% of early votes were cast by Democrats, 31.3% by Republicans, and 30.3% by unaffiliated voters. Members of the Libertarian and Green parties cast 0.28%.

At the top of the ticket is the U.S. Senate race. Recent polling suggests that Republican U.S. Rep. Ted Budd has pulled ahead in that election against Democratic former N.C. Chief Justice Cheri Beasley. Democrats have not won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008.

The race also includes Libertarian Shannon Bray and Green Party candidate Matthew Hoh. Neither is expected to win, but their presence on the ballot may pull some voters from the leaders.

Beasley made a final visit to Fayetteville on Sunday. She appeared at several churches, held a barbecue and campaign rally at Simon Temple AME Zion Church and knocked on doors. She urged supporters to get friends, family and neighbors to the polls.

Budd visited the Fayetteville Bakery & Café on Oct. 19 to speak with about 25 supporters on issues like inflation, border security and fentanyl addiction.

Where do the Senate candidates stand?Read more about them in Fayetteville Observer Voter Guide 2022

Will Gov. Cooper’s veto become useless?Voters to decide when they elect their state lawmakers. Key issues include tax cuts, gun laws and abortion.

Republican Paul Shumaker: Democratic voters are not showing up

“I’m normally not this bullish,” on the GOP prospects, said longtime GOP consultant Paul Shumaker on Friday. He predicted GOP supermajorities in the state House and Senate, plus GOP sweeps of all statewide races.

Shumaker is a number-cruncher who uses detailed analytics to advise his clients. What do his numbers tell him?

“The Democrats have a turnout problem,” he said.

“Minority participation in early voting is about 3% off for Democrats than what it is on average in early voting,” Shumaker said. “I’m talking about 3% of the overall vote,” from 13.2% of all ballots cast, down to 9.9% as of Wednesday.

The only age demographic that favors the Democrats is voters aged 18 to 35, Shumaker said, “and that vote is off by about half of what it normally is in midterm cycles.”

Voters age 56 to 75, a Republican-favoring segment, boosted turnout 47% in 2018 to 50.5% now, he said.

Democrats who banked on the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling over the summer to let states ban abortion made a mistake, Shumaker said. He cited a recent Elon University poll that found 66% of respondents believed the abortion ruling had no effect — positive or negative — on themselves and their families.

Midterm voters are much more concerned about the economy, Shumaker said, and Republicans are focusing on that.

The Elon poll found that 85% of respondents gave the state of the national economy a letter grade of C, D or F. It said 72% of those who have thought about inflation believe that Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration is responsible for the recent increases in prices.

Democrat Morgan Jackson: Democrats can cross the finish line first

“You’ve seen a huge effort by Democrats to early vote, and you’re seeing a huge Election Day effort to turn out the vote all across North Carolina,” Democratic consultant Morgan Jackson said on Friday. With people like celebrity Oprah Winfrey, former President Barack Obama and top Democrats from other states campaigning for Cheri Beasley in the Senate race, “It’s an all-hands-on-deck to turn out the vote for these last couple days.”

Jackson said Republican Senate candidate Ted Budd has not run a strong race or been effective enough in raising money. Budd has been propped with spending from organizations like the Club For Growth in the primary, Jackson said, and now the Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund.

The Senate Leadership Fund has spent more money in North Carolina than in any state other than Pennsylvania and Georgia, Jackson said. Those states also have highly competitive Senate elections this year.

“He’s got to be rescued, or tried to be pushed across the line by folks in D.C. because he’s a lackluster campaigner,” Jackson said.

Voter turnout this year is more important than persuading undecided voters, Jackson said, because in a midterm election, the “undecided” voter is unlikely to cast a ballot.

“They’re less ‘undecided’ about who to vote for, they’re more undecided about whether they’re going to vote,” he said.

He disagreed with Shumaker that abortion is not going to bring enough voters out for the Democrats.

“A lot of these polls that you’re seeing ask what your most important issue is,” Jackson said. “If abortion is in your top three issues … you are 92% likely to vote this year, because you’re that motivated, if it’s one of your top three issues.

“Yes, the economy and inflation are driving a lot of the narrative, but as long as abortion is in your top two or three issues, you’re going to turn out and you’re voting for Democrats.”

Senior North Carolina reporter Paul Woolverton can be reached at 910-261-4710 and pwoolverton@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: As Republicans predict red wave, Democrats say they can win NC