Election forecasters says GOP likely to dominate South Carolina, Georgia a toss-up

Matthew Christian, Aiken Standard, S.C.
·3 min read
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Jul. 15—Current predictions say that Republicans will once again triumph in South Carolina's U.S. Senate, U.S. House and governor races and that neighboring Georgia is a toss-up.

FiveThirtyEight, ElectionBettingOdds.com and RealClearPolitics maintain websites that update predictions daily, hourly or by the minute for the 2022 elections.

U.S. Senate

FiveThirtyEight, ElectionBettingOdds.com and Real Clear Politics all list U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., as extremely likely to win reelection over S.C. Rep. Krystle Matthews, D-Berkeley, in the state's Senate race.

Specifically, FiveThirtyEight says Scott has a greater than 99% chance to win reelection. ElectionBettingOdds, which uses a collection of offshore political betting markets to predict outcomes, says there are no bets being taken on the race because its considered safely Republican. RealClearPolitics also classifies the seat as safely Republican.

The Senate race in neighboring Georgia is considered a toss-up by FiveThirtyEight, ElectionBettingOdds.com and RealClearPolitics. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight says Republican Herschel Walker has a 56% chance to win while ElectionBettingOdds says Democrat Rafael Warnock has a 52.5% chance to win.

FiveThirtyEight says that Republicans have a 54% chance to win control of the Senate. ElectionBettingOdds.com lists the Republicans as 67% likely to win control of the Senate in 2022. RealClearPolitics says Republicans will likely have 47 seats, Democrats 46 seats and lists seven seats as toss-ups.

U.S. House

In the U.S. House, Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., is also considered very likely to win the House seat representing South Carolina's Second Congressional District. FiveThirtyEight says Wilson has a greater than 99% chance of winning. RealClearPolitics does not list the seat as competitive.

U.S. Rep. Jeff Duncan, R-S.C., whose Third Congressional District includes Edgefield County and the southwestern part of the state, does not face an opponent.

FiveThirtyEight also considers Reps. Nancy Mace, William Timmons, Ralph Norman and Jim Clyburn greater than 99% likely to win reelection. S.C. Rep. Russell Fry, R-Horry, is considered greater than 99% likely to win the Seventh Congressional District seat.

In Georgia, Republican Rick Allen has a greater than 99% chance to win reelection in the state's 12th Congressional District over Democrat Liz Johnson according to FiveThirtyEight. RealClearPolitics does not list the seat as competitive.

ElectionBettingOdds does not list out House races, but its current metric indicates that the Republicans have an 88% chance of taking the House.

FiveThirtyEight says that Republicans have a 87% chance of taking the House.

RealClearPolitics considers 223 seats to be safely or likely Republican (218 is the number for a majority), 179 seats safely or likely Democratic and 33 seats as tossups.

S.C. Governor

S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster is also considered very likely to win reelection.

FiveThirtyEight says McMaster has a 99% chance to win over Democrat Joe Cunningham. RealClearPolitics says South Carolina is a safely Republican seat.

ElectionBettingOdds does not make a prediction on the South Carolina governor's race.

In Georgia, FiveThirtyEight says Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has an 86% chance to win reelection over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams. RealClearPolitics considers the state to be a tossup but does list Kemp with an average 4.8% advantage.

Kemp's advantage is likely inside of or just outside of the margin of error used in polls.

ElectionBettingOdds.com does not make a prediction on the Georgia governor's race. However, PredictIt, one of the components used by ElectionBettingOdds, lists Republicans as 80% likely to win the governor's race.