Latest presidential betting odds 2020: Biden favourite to win
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Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden are awaiting the results of the US presidential election as polls are closing, in what has been an unprecedented election in an unprecedented year.
The coronavirus pandemic has meant a very different election to years previous, as the candidates have struggled to do as much in-person campaigning than normal.
FiveThirtyEight, an organisation that creates an average from America’s national polls, currently shows Mr Biden with a lead of 8.5 percentage points over President Trump.
While national polls show a landslide voting gap for the Democratic nominee, betting odds suggest a much tighter race between the pair.
Read more: What time do polls close on election night? A state-by-state guide
The 2016 presidential election saw a record number of people place bets on the myriad of outcomes, as $258m (£198.7m) was spent gambling on the contest between Mr Trump and Hillary Clinton on Betfair Exchange.
However, by Monday 26 October, the betting service had already received $215m (£165m) placed on the election and was predicting to see $400m (£308m) by 3 November.
In a press release, Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “The 2020 election is on course to become the biggest single betting event of all time.”
What are the current odds for the major markets?
2020 US presidential election winner
Gamblers have swung back behind Mr Biden after earlier this morning backing Mr Trump to win the presidential race.
At around midday on Wednesday, Oddschecker had Mr Biden favourite at 8/13 with Mr Trump at 7/4.
Bet365, SkyBet and Betfair all have Mr Biden winning, as they have the Democratic nominee as 1/3.
The site also showed that 61 per cent of bets have been for President Trump, and 35 per cent of bets went to Biden.
Read more: Electoral college map: The swing states Trump and Biden need to win
However, 6 per cent of bets have been placed for Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris, 5 per cent have been for vice president Mike Pence, while 2 per cent have been placed for rapper Kanye West.
2020 US presidential election turnout
A record turnout is predicted for the election, as election officials and advocacy groups have been urging US residents to vote early this year in-person or via mail-in voting, because of fears of long queues forming on 3 November due to coronavirus measures.
By election day 100 million US citizens had already voted in the election, compared to the 46.3 million who had cast their ballot at the same time in 2016.
Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, who also runs the US Elections Project, predicted that the US will see a record turnout of about 150 million people for November’s election, which would represent 65 per cent of eligible voters, the highest rate since 1908.
Smarkets is the only provider accepting bets on the official US turnout and currently has three categories to choose from.
Betfair’s current swing-o-meter based on odds for each candidate:
For a turnout of under 55 per cent, the betting company has odds of 33/1, while the provider has odds of 15/1 for between 55 to 57 per cent.
Smarkets also has odds of a turnout of between 58-60 per cent at 32/5 and odds of 1/6 for over 60 per cent.
Oddschecker shows that 59.41 per cent of bets have been placed on a turnout of more than 60 per cent, and 20.79 per cent have been for between 58 and 60 per cent turnout.
While, 10.89 per cent have been on under 55 and 8.91 per cent have been placed on 55 to 57 per cent turnout.
2020 Electoral College votes
The US Electoral College describes the 538 Presidential electors who come together every four years during the presidential election to give their official votes, based on the winner of the popular vote in each state.
In 2016, President Trump received 304 votes while Ms Clinton got 227, despite the Democratic candidate winning the popular vote. A candidate must receive a majority of 270 to win the election.
Oddschecker currently has Biden on 9/2 to get more than the 270 required, and Mr Trump on
Going into the election, Betfair and Paddy Power were offering odds of 8/1 for Mr Biden to get between 270 to 299 electoral college votes.
While for President Trump, Smarkets were offering odds of 33/1 for him to receive 270-275 electoral college votes, and 16/1 for him to get between 251-269.
Popular vote winner
The popular vote is the total number of percentage of votes that each presidential candidate receives across the US.
In 2016 President Trump received 47 per cent of the popular vote compared to Ms Clinton’s 48 per cent, but still won the election because of the electoral college.
Oddschecker currently has 1/1 for Mr Biden winning the popular vote by more than 52 per cent, and 9/1 for him to win by more than 55 per cent.
The best odds for Mr Biden winning the popular vote were 1/10 from Betfair Exchange, Paddy Power and Bet Victor, while for President Trump it was 5/1 from Bet Victor and GentingBet.
According to Oddschecker, 46.46 per cent of the bets placed on the popular vote were for President Trump, while 28.28 per cent have been for Mr Biden.
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