What election reforms do Arizonans support? ASU poll sheds light on trust and lack of it
Arizonans' attitudes toward elections aren't clear-cut, new polling shows.
A majority of Arizonans have confidence in election outcomes, according to a survey from Arizona State University's Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy. But many also support a variety of election reforms, including nonpartisan primaries and nonpartisan oversight of elections.
"There was wide support for a lot of reforms," said Thom Reilly, co-director of the center and one of the researchers behind the poll. "I say that because, so much, we talk about polarization and that we all we are polarized, but I think this serves as a starting point for conversation."
The study, which polled more than 1,000 people, leaves ample opportunity for follow-up research, Reilly said.
A majority of voters told researchers that they supported measures to ensure election integrity: for example, testing of voting machines, tracking of ballots and auditing of election results.
In Arizona, those safeguards are already in place. The machines that tally votes, known as tabulators, are tested before and after every election. For voters on the Active Early Voting List, ballot tracking is available. State law also requires a hand count audit of ballots randomly selected by political party observers immediately after the election.
Reilly said he hopes to do further polling and research to determine whether voters simply aren't aware of the election integrity measures already in place or if they wish to see them expanded.
"One area clearly is an educational issue: more outreach to educate the citizens out in Arizona that these safeguards are in existence in Arizona," he said. "But the fact that people broadly support them, I think, is significant in itself ... I think the next step is to do a further, deeper dive."
The survey didn't ask participants if they support hand-counting ballots. That plan, largely backed by conservatives who do not trust the results of recent elections, has permeated elections discourse in Arizona for years, even though there are logistical barriers to the idea and Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes recently warned that hand counts might violate state law.
Nevertheless, Reilly believes the study offers clues to increase trust in elections and democracy.
"The whole purpose of the study was, how do we increase voter confidence so that more individuals will be confident in the election system we have?" he said. "And we have something to build upon in Arizona, which I think is a real positive."
The survey was conducted by Venture Data in May. It was balanced to model the state's population of registered voters across party affiliation, voting status, region, age, race and educational level.
It was funded by Arizona's Citizens Clean Elections Commission, which administers the state's public-campaign finance system, provides voter education and oversees complaints about campaign finance violations. The commission is nonpartisan and was created as a result of a 1998 ballot initiative. Greater Phoenix Leadership, an organization that represents Arizona business leaders, also provided money for the study.
Here are some of the big takeaways.
Wide support for nonpartisan primaries, slim majority for ranked-choice voting
Currently, Arizona has mostly open primaries and uses a traditional voting scheme.
In the state's open primary system, voters registered to political parties automatically receive their party's ballot during primary elections.
Independent voters, meanwhile, must notify election officials which party's ballot they want.
There are limitations on which primary elections independent voters get to participate in. Arizona's Libertarian Party doesn't allow independent voters to vote in their primary elections at all. And independents cannot vote in presidential preference elections.
Under the current system, all voters must choose candidates from one party. They cannot cast a vote for a Republican candidate in one primary race and a Democratic candidate in another.
In a nonpartisan primary system, all candidates from Arizona's four recognized political parties would be placed on one ballot that all voters, regardless of party affiliation, would be entitled to vote. Several candidates with the most votes would then advance to a general election.
Under the rules of traditional voting, voters are only given as many votes to cast as there are seats to fill. For instance, there is only one governor of Arizona, so voters may only cast one vote for governor.
Ranked-choice voting, however, would allow voters to rank candidates on the ballot in order of preference. If voters' top-choice candidate is eliminated, their vote counts for their backup choice. That process of consolidating votes continues until one candidate has a majority.
Reilly's polling found that a vast majority of Arizonans — 80% — support nonpartisan primaries. That includes 87% of unaffiliated voters. Most Democrats and Republicans also favored the idea.
"It wasn't just a simple majority," he said. "It was a large majority across political identification."
Ranked-choice voting scraped by with a bare majority. About 52% of voters responded in support, led by Democratic and independent voters. Registered Republican voters largely opposed the idea.
Majority support for ranked-choice voting was within the survey's margin of error, which was plus or minus 3.1%.
Arizonans want nonpartisan oversight of elections, poll shows
A vast majority of Arizonans believe that political interference has increased in elections in recent years, the polling shows.
Accordingly, about 60% said they believe top election officials, including the secretary of state and county recorders, should run nonpartisan campaigns.
Currently, Arizona's secretary of state and county recorders run in partisan elections. Changing the current system likely would necessitate changes in state law, Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer said. That would require legislative action or a successful ballot initiative, both unlikely before 2024.
But creating a system in which election officials are wholly nonpartisan might be even more complicated. Richer noted that county supervisors also are tasked with election responsibilities in Arizona. Those officials, who are elected in partisan races, are responsible for setting budgets and other governmental functions as well.
Most respondents also said that election officials shouldn't be allowed to publicly endorse candidates for other offices, raise money for other candidates or oversee recounts in their own races.
They were split on whether officials should be able to raise money for their own parties. About 49% said they should, 49% said they should not, and the small remainder were undecided.
About 92% of Arizona voters believe election officials should be required to take an oath to function in a nonpartisan manner, according to the study. That idea received the highest support of any in the poll.
"I'm not suggesting that solves all the problems of voter confidence," Reilly said. "But, as we try to inch forward ... nonpartisan appointment of these top election officials was top of mind."
All elected officials already take an oath of office at the start of their term in which they swear to uphold the Constitution of the United States and the laws of Arizona.
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Lack of trust in sources of election information
Voters aren't sure who to trust about elections. When poll participants were asked about their level of trust in eight different institutions, none was trusted by a majority of respondents, and distrust often was higher than trust by wide margins.
"I think that that was the depressing part of that survey," Reilly said. "We live in bubbles. We chose our media to reinforce our worldview. And then we talk about it with people who reinforce us, who think and act like us."
Here's how voters responded to each of the eight categories:
Television, radio or print media: About 23% trust, 41% don't trust and 36% said they were unsure.
Outside election observers: About 33% trust, 22% don't trust and 45% said they were unsure.
Social media: About 6% trust, 68% don't trust and 26% said they were unsure.
Religious leaders: About 22% trust, 47% don't trust and 31% said they were unsure.
Universities: About 45% trust, 28% don't trust and 27% said they were unsure.
Business leaders: About 18% trust, 45% don't trust and 37% said they were unsure.
Friends and family: About 46% trust, 19% don't trust and 35% said they were unsure.
Political leaders: About 15% trust, 51% don't trust and 34% said they were unsure.
Reilly said that while the results are bleak, he sees some small "glimmers of hope" in the friends and family category and the universities category. He wishes he would have reworded the question about outside election observers, he said, because if more participants had understood the question, that source of information might have gotten more positive results.
Overall, most are confident in election outcomes
About 65% of Arizonans trust the outcome of recent elections, according to poll results.
Of those, about half said they were "somewhat confident" in election outcomes. The other half indicated they were "very confident."
Thirty-four percent said they were not confident in the results of recent elections.
The polling also shows that nearly all voters know where they stand on the issue. Fewer than 1% of respondents didn't respond to the survey question or said they didn't know.
Other polling has also found that Arizona voters broadly trust election results. Still, Reilly said the group of voters who were confident in recent election outcomes was higher than he expected, calling it a "positive."
Taking steps to bolster those voters' trust in the electoral system, he said, could be the key to a stronger democracy.
"We may never get election deniers or those that will never, ever trust the system because they just never will," Reilly said. "But if we have two-thirds ... how do we increase the comfort level and the confidence level of individuals?"
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Sasha Hupka covers county government and election administration for The Arizona Republic. Do you have a tip to share on elections or voting? Reach her at sasha.hupka@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter: @SashaHupka. Follow her on Instagram or Threads: @sashahupkasnaps.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: What election reforms do Arizonans support? New ASU poll sheds light
