By-elections latest: Boris Johnson blamed for Sunak’s ‘armageddon’ defeat in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire

Sir Keir Starmer has cast himself the heir to Blair after a historic Tory by-election drubbing in which he jubilantly declared Labour was “redrawing the political map”.

The Labour leader said that Tory voters were turning to them because they were “fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for”.

The Tories are now staring down the barrel of an unprecedented wipeout after suffering defeats in two fiercely contested by-elections, with huge majorities evaporating overnight following a disastrous few years in which the party has seemingly stumbled from one crisis to another.

Starmers remarks came as polling guru John Curtice said Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were largely to blame for the crushing defeat.

Overturning the biggest majority in British by-election history, Labour took Mid Bedfordshire from the Tories for the first time.

While in Tamworth, the party saw the second biggest swing from the Tories to Labour in a by-election in post-war history.

Meanwhile, former chancellor George Osborne warned the record defeats spell “armageddon” for the Conservatives at the general election.

Key points

• Labour secure dramatic by-election victory in Tamworth

• Huge blow for Rishi Sunak as Labour snatch by-election win in Mid Bedfordshire

• Labour will give 'Britain its future back', says Sir Keir Starmer

• Alistair Strathern and Sarah Edwards overturn key Conservative seats

• Labour could produce bigger landslide than 1997 says polling guru

Polling guru: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss scandals to blame for Tory disaster

10:21 , Athena Stavrou

Boris Johnson and Liz Truss are to largely blame for the Conservatives crushing double by-election defeat, according to polling guru Sir John Curtice.

Prof Curtice said the Tories were staring a general election wipe-out “in the face” after “extraordinary swings” to Labour which saw the safe seats of Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire turn red.

Pointing to the impact of Mr Johnson’s Partygate scandal and Ms Truss’mini-budget fiasco, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think one could reasonably argue that the reason why we are where we are is because of those two events – and that’s more important than the fact Sir Keir Starmer has changed his party, although perhaps if Sir Keir Starmer had not changed his party maybe they wouldn’t be as popular to the same degree.”

He added: “A big what if: let us say those Partygate happenings had never happened, or at least we’d never heard of them and a result Boris Johnson was still in No 10 today. Would Labour be doing as well as they are at the moment?”

Thank you for reading our live coverage

21:16 , Holly Evans

We’re now ending our live coverage for the day, thank you for reading.

Rishi Sunak’s full comments on double by-election loss

21:00 , Holly Evans

Speaking before leaving the Middle East, Rishi Sunak told reporters: “Obviously disappointing results, not least because our candidates Festus (Akinbusoye) and Andrew (Cooper) worked very hard, and I know they’ll continue to be great local champions in their communities.

“It is important to remember the context - mid-term elections are always difficult for incumbent governments. And of course there are also local factors at play here.”

He said he was “committed to delivering on the priorities of the British people. That is why we’re going to keep on with halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing debt, cutting waiting lists and stopping the boats.

“But also over the past month, I’ve set out some long-term decisions that will change our country for the better.

“A new approach to net zero which will save families thousands of pounds, ensuring that we take a different approach to HS2, investing £36 billion in other transport projects around the country that will benefit people faster, or ensuring that an entire generation of our young children can grow up without smoking.

“Those are the type of decisions that I’m making for our country. That is the change that we’re going to bring, and I’m committed to delivering for the British people.”

After another by-election disaster, the Tories must face facts – the British public is done with them

20:45 , Holly Evans

A national mood is an amorphous, elusive thing, but you can recognise it when you collide with it. For Britain, this is one such time, and it is something that is making its political presence felt to the governing party.

The mood is summed up in the social media sphere as #GTTO – get the Tories out. It is quite tangible, even in Middle England.

Despite valiant attempts by Conservatives to blame the electorate for their own failures, the dismal showing by the party in a run of parliamentary by-elections cannot be put down to bad weather, local factors, and an ephemeral protest vote.

All those things did no doubt have their psephological effect in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire; but the sheer scale and the nature of the Conservative collapse cannot be so easily explained away.

Read the full article below

Editorial: The Tories must face facts – the British public is done with them

Tory by-election defeats: John Rentoul answers your questions from Farage’s return to election timeline

20:37 , Holly Evans

Questions abound following a historic Tory by-election trouncing, in which Sir Keir Starmer jubilantly declared Labour was “redrawing the political map”.

The Labour leader said Tory voters were turning to them because they were “fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for”.

The Conservatives are now staring down the barrel of an unprecedented wipeout after suffering defeats in two fiercely contested by-elections, with huge majorities disintegrating overnight following a disastrous few years in which the party has seemingly stumbled from one crisis to another.

Read more here

John Rentoul answers your questions – from Farage’s return to election timeline

‘Architects of disaster’: Boris, Truss and Tory right accused of leading party into electoral wilderness

20:15 , Holly Evans

The Conservative party was sent into a fresh round of anguish and infighting after the historic double by-election defeat to Labour in the safe seats of Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.

While the Tory right immediately called for changes and accused Rishi Sunak of being in “denial”, Tory moderates who remain loyal to the PM warned him against a lurch to the right.

Many pointed the finger at Boris Johnson and Liz Truss for leading the party in electoral oblivion, as despair about the chances at the general election expected in 2024 took hold once again.

Read more here

‘Architects of disaster’: Boris and Truss accused of destroying Tories

I’m the heir to Blair, says Starmer after Tory ‘Armageddon’ by-election defeats

19:30 , Holly Evans

Sir Keir Starmer has cast himself as the heir to Tony Blair after his party clinched two major by-election victories in Tory safe seats which he jubilantly declared as a “game changer”.

The Labour leader insisted that his party would stay “humble” — but boasted that he could see the “summit” of a general election victory, as he cited Mr Blair’s 1997 triumph.

“What I do want to do is follow in the footsteps of a leader of our party who took us from opposition into power,” he said, after the huge majorities were overturned in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.

Read the full story below

I’m the heir to Blair, says Starmer after Tory ‘Armageddon’ by-election defeats

By-election blows comes one year after Liz Truss resigned

18:41 , Holly Evans

Mr Sunak was out of the country as the results came in, having been in Saudi Arabia and then Egypt on Friday as he toured the Middle East in the aftermath of the Hamas attacks on Israel.

The election blows were announced a year to the day after Mr Sunak’s predecessor Liz Truss resigned as prime minister and leave him with a headache as he prepares to mark his first anniversary in No 10.

Danny Kruger, a member of the New Conservatives made up of MPs elected since 2019, said the Tories needed to be “more robust and braver” ahead of the next election.

He urged Mr Sunak to reduce net migration numbers, cut taxes and intervene in the so-called culture wars, an area where he suggested Mr Sunak could have “real cut-through” with voters.

Reform UK claims his party matters at next election

18:03 , Holly Evans

Reform UK leader Richard Rice claimed last night’s byelection results, which saw his party finish third in Tamworth – getting more votes than Labour won by – showed that his party could have a “significant effect” at the election.

He also promised that his party would stand in every seat. “Yes I will keep my promise – 630 seats,” he tweeted.

PM says double by-election loss is ‘obviously disappointing’

17:32 , Holly Evans

The Prime Minister has described the double Conservative by-election losses in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire as “disappointing” but said there were “local factors at play”.

Rivals Labour took both seats, which enjoyed healthy Tory majorities, in results that party leader Sir Keir Starmer said “made history”.

Both contests were triggered by the high-profile departures of their previous MPs.

Speaking to broadcasters as he prepared to fly to the UK from Egypt, Mr Sunak said they were “obviously disappointing results” but that it was “important to remember the context”.

He said: “Mid-term elections are always difficult for incumbent governments.

“And of course there are also local factors at play here.”

The Prime Minister, who is returning after a diplomatic blitz of the Middle East, said he remained “committed to delivering on the priorities of the British people” following the defeats.

Sunak should be ‘braver’ on migration and culture wars, says New Conservatives member

17:23 , Holly Evans

Danny Kruger, a member of the New Conservatives group, said Prime Minister Rishi Sunak should be “braver” on issues such as migration and the so-called culture wars if he is to turn the Tories’ fortunes around following a double by-election loss.

The MP for Devizes told BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme that he welcomed recent shifts on net zero, before adding: “I think we need to continue in that direction and be more coherent, more robust and braver.

“I think we need to go a bit further and faster. So on migration, I’m encouraged by the position on illegal migration. I think we now need to take further steps to reduce overall numbers of legal migration.

“I’m concerned about some issues around the so-called culture wars, which I think do matter to people. In Parliament and the media they tend to be disregarded but actually these things matter.

John Rentoul: Labour’s by-election wins are ‘second coming of Blairism’

17:00 , Athena Stavrou

Labour’s double by-election victory is the “second coming of Blairism,” The Independent’s chief political commentator John Rentoul has said.

Huge Tory majorities were overturned in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, the latter of which was the biggest in British by-election history.

“These are the sort of results Tony Blair got as leader of the opposition,” Mr Rentoul told TalkTV on Friday, 20 October.

“It suggests that Labour is heading for that kind of swing in a general election... We’re not talking about an absolutely huge Labour majority... but it’s certainly looking pretty good for them.”

Mandelson warns Starmer against ‘poisonous’ over confidence

16:40 , Athena Stavrou

Labour grandee Peter Mandelson has warned Keir Starmer against the “poisonous and corrosive” belief in the party that the general election is already won.

Lord Mandelson told The Times podcast that Sir Keir Starmer needs to make voters “feel a bit more optimistic” but tell his own MPs there is more to do.

“One really big issue for the Labour party … many of them, I’m afraid, really do feel that the election has been won and that is so poisonous, it is so corrosive for a party.”

He warns that this overconfidence could lead Labour “into traps and mistakes”.

‘Architects of disaster’: Boris, Truss and Tory right accused of leading party into electoral wilderness

16:20 , Athena Stavrou

The Conservative party was sent into a fresh round of anguish and infighting after the historic double by-election defeat to Labour in the safe seats of Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.

Tory chairman Greg Hands blamed the “legacy issues” left by Mr Sunak’s predecessors – and Johnson allies Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher for creating “fury” among voters by forcing the by-elections in the first place.

Read more from Adam Forrest below:

‘Architects of disaster’: Boris and Truss accused of destroying Tories

How will the by-elections impact next year’s general election

15:57 , Athena Stavrou

The Tories expected a difficult night, in part because governing parties often suffer a by-election backlash but also because of the controversies that led to the two vacancies.

But with a general election expected next year, the Conservative party cannot shrug off today’s landmark by-election results in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.

Swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years – a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history. Seven of those contests have seen the Tories lose seats, four to the Liberal Democrats and three to Labour

Mr Sunak has to go to the country by January 2025 at the latest, but spring or autumn 2024 are more likely options.

Considering the Tories won in 2019 with a majority of 80, the prospect of a Conservative defeat would represent a seismic shift in British politics in the space of five years.

The phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” has become a political cliche, but Mr Sunak has to a large degree pinned his hopes on an improving economic picture. He will hope that growth picks up, inflation falls and people feel a sense of optimism about the direction of the country.

With discretion over the timing of the general election, he can choose the point he feels it is most likely to result in a Tory win.

But the state of the public finances could restrict Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ability to deliver a tax-cutting, voter-pleasing budget in the run-up to the election. And problems with NHS waiting lists and small boat crossings of the English Channel are unlikely to disappear despite promises to deal with them featuring prominently in Mr Sunak’s priorities for government.

Sunak must be more ‘robust and brave’ on culture wars, says Tory MP

15:37 , Athena Stavrou

Tory right-winger Danny Kruger, a key figure in the New Conservatives group of 2017 and 2019 MPs, said Mr Sunak should be “braver” on issues like immigration, net zero and other so-called culture war issues.

“I think we need to continue in that direction and be more coherent, more robust and braver,” he told the BBC. “I think we need to go a bit further and faster. In Parliament and the media they [culture war issues] tend to be disregarded but actually, these things matter.”

“So the guidance on sex education in schools, proposals around transgender rights are significant and matter and they have real cut-through. We need to be bolder on taxation than we have been.”

Sunak ‘must do better’, says Tory MP

15:21 , Athena Stavrou

Boris Johnson backer Michael Fabricant said there “little evidence of Conservative voters switching to Labour unlike under Blair” – but he added that the Rishi Sunak’s government “must do better!”

Stopping the squabbling, says senior Tory

14:59 , Athena Stavrou

“Starmer is a dud – he doesn’t inspire,” one former Tory minister told The Independent, who called on squabbling in the backbench ranks to end.

“The Conservative Party needs to restore its self-discipline and support the PM.”

It comes as backbench MPs argued in a Tory WhatsApp group. According to Sky News, one MP wrote: “Our voters stayed at home they DIDN’T switch. Come the general the public who sat in their hands will come out to back us.”But another Tory MP told the broadcaster some colleagues were “deluded”.

Sunak sticking to ‘strategy of denial’, says David Frost

14:41 , Athena Stavrou

Former Tory Brexit minister David Frost said has accused Rishi Sunak of sticking to a “strategy of denial” which is not working.

The right-wing Tory peer said the results were “extremely bad for my party... and I don’t think it helps to suggest otherwise”.

Lord Frost – who is pushing for tax cuts and a dialling down of net zero policies – added: “The current national polls are dreadful for us but these results are even *worse*. If your voters don’t want to come out and vote for you then you don’t win elections. It’s as simple as that.”

‘No real love for Labour’, says Gillian Keegan

14:20 , Athena Stavrou

Tory education secretary Gillian Keegan claimed that there was “no real love for Labour” on the doorsteps in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth.

“There were very, very few people who were switching over,” Ms Keegan told ITV News.

“We still have to demonstrate to them that it’s worth of getting out of their house and voting Conservative like they usually do. She added: “We still have to demonstrate to them that it’s worth of getting out of their house and voting Conservative like they usually do.”

Don’t ‘throw in the towel’, says ex-minister – who tells PM to leave culture wars to the left

14:15 , Athena Stavrou

Tory moderate Robert Buckland said Rishi Sunak was “on the money” with his focus on inflation – but warned against clutching at culture war issues in a lurch to the right.

The ex-cabinet minister told The Independent: “Unless we embrace issues like housing and the tax rates being paid by hard-pressed families then the public are going to say, ‘We’ve given them 13 years, why should we give them more?’

“Focus on economic security. The culture war staff is the hard left versus the far left – it should have nothing to do with us,” Mr Buckland added.

“Colleagues have to trust Rishi Sunak to listen to concerns, rather than going into blind panic. Parties that lose their nerve do not win. We’ve seen triumphalism from Labour – but this is not over. The Conservative party can’t throw in the towel.”

Sir Keir Starmer denies he ever backed Israel withholding humanitarian aid

13:45 , Athena Stavrou

Sir Keir Starmer has denied that he ever backed Israel withholding humanitarian aid from Gaza.

The Labour leader said that food, water and medicines must urgently be allowed in, as he admitted his earlier remarks caused “distress”.

A number of his councillors have resigned over what they perceived as “horrifying” comments that he was “endorsing a war crime”.

In an interview with LBC, Sir Keir had appeared to suggest that Israel has “the right” to withhold energy and water. But Sir Keir argued on Friday that he had intended to say that Israel has the right to defend .

The Labour leader said he wanted to “clarify precisely what I was saying”.

He told broadcasters: “I know that LBC clip has been widely shared and caused real concern and distress in some Muslim communities, so let me be clear about what I was saying and what I wasn’t saying. I was saying that Israel has the right to self-defence, and when I said that right I meant it was that right to self-defence. I was not saying that Israel had the right to cut off water, food, fuel or medicines.”

Labour by-election wins 'history in the making', says Keir Starmer

13:20 , Athena Stavrou

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the party’s winning candidate for Mid Bedfordshire had “not only won” but “made history”.

Appearing alongside Alistair Strathern at the Forest Centre & Millennium Country Park near Bedford, he said: “What a fantastic candidate… He has not only won here, he’s made history here over the past 24 hours. An incredible achievement already.”

Thanking Labour campaigners, he said: “Every vote that you persuaded to come across to us was worth it.

“This is an incredible night in politics, an incredible morning, an incredible result here for so many reasons.

“It is clear that the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory Government. They’ve had enough of the decline of the last 13 years and they are crying out for change – positive change that the Labour Party can bring them.”

‘Writing on the wall’ for Sunak’s election defeat, says ex-Tory minister

12:55 , Athena Stavrou

Conservative grandee Dominic Grieve has said the party is “shot to pieces” and the “writing is on the wall” for a loss at the next general election after last night’s double defeat.

The former cabinet minister told The Independent that the public thought of Rishi Sunak as a “decent man” but he was undermined by the legacy of Liz Truss and “charlatan” Boris Johnson – calling them the “architects of disaster”.

He warned Sunak against listening to “people on the Tory right who are the architects of the disaster”. But he said he feared another “lurch to the right” if the party does lose the general election.

Mr Grieve said: “The best-case scenario for the Conservatives is that Sunak pursues sensible policies which create a degree of economic revival. I still doubt that it will be enough to keep the party in power – but it might prevent a complete wipe-out.”

Labour could produce bigger landslide than 1997 says polling guru

12:39 , Athena Stavrou

Polling guru Sir John Curtice said Sir Keir Starmer could be on course for an even bigger landslide than the one seen under Tony Blair under 1997.

The elections expert said “these were not ordinary government by-election losses” – pointing out that no government had ever lost as safe a seat as Tamworth.

Prof Curtice said: “The Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily – and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.”

‘Keep calm and carry on’, says Tory pollster

12:22 , Athena Stavrou

Tory peer and polling guru Robert Hayward said Rishi Sunak must “keep calm and carry on” by focusing on an attempted economic recovery – urging him not to get pulled into culture war distractions by those on the right.

Lord Hayward told The Independent: “There is no benefit to trying to do all sorts of other things when you have yet to prove you are a competent government. The maxim keep calm and carry on would be the best piece of advice, because the public is still angry about the period between 2020 and 2022 and a period of calm, stable government is what they are looking for.”

He said the by-elections were “an incredibly good pair of results for Labour, no question about that”. But he said the Tories could take some comfort from the low-turnout.

“The swings are huge and that has to be worrying, but the level of switchers appears to be incredibly low,” he said

What’s next for the Tories and Rishi Sunak after double by-election upset? Ask John Rentoul anything

12:09 , Athena Stavrou

Following their double-billed defeat in yesterday’s by-elections, The Independent’s chief political commentator John Rentoul will answer questions on what happens next for the Tory party.

If you have a question on the by election fallout, submit it now here, or when he joins you live at 3pm on Friday 20 October for the “Ask Me Anything” event.

You can find out more about the event below:

Ask John Rentoul what’s next for the Tories after double by-election upset

Voters ‘fed up to the back teeth of Tories’, says Sir Keir Starmer

11:24 , Athena Stavrou

Sir Keir Starmer said Labour’s win in Tamworth was due to Tory voters being “fed up with the decline” under the Conservative government

Appearing alongside Sarah Edwards, he said: “People told me it was not possible to win this seat in this by-election.”

He added: “I think what you’ve seen here replicates what’s going on across the country. People are fed up to the back teeth with 13 years of decline under this government. They want a fresh start. They want to go forward.”

He said Labour accepted the landmark victory “humbly” and added that there were “Tory voters yesterday who went to the ballot box to vote labour” because they were “fed up” with “the party they used to vote for”.

Listen: George Osborne warns Tories facing ‘armageddon’ after double by-election loss

11:08 , Athena Stavrou

George Osborne has said losing both the Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections was “armageddon’ for the Conservative Party.

“Losing both the Tamworth and Mid Beds by-elections is a political earthquake and could mean armageddon for the Tories,” Osborne said speaking on his Political Currency podcast.

Penny Mordaunt favourite to replace Sunak

10:45 , Athena Stavrou

A new poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies has found that Penny Mordaunt is the most likely Tory to replace Rishi Sunak.

The Commons leader – well-known to the public for holding a sword at the King’s coronation – came out on top with 11 per cent when voters were asked who could replace Sunak.

She was followed by chancellor Jeremy Hunt on 9 per cent, “another Conservative MP” on 8 per cent and home secretary Suella Braverman on 7 per cent.

“We finally have an MP in Parliament who is going to be on our side”, Labour MP says

10:03 , Athena Stavrou

Winning Labour candidate for Mid Bedfordshire Alistair Strathern said the by-election had been a chance to make sure “we finally have an MP in Parliament who is going to be on our side”.

Thanking campaigners gathered at the Forest Centre & Millennium Country Park near Bedford, he said: “I’ve been really humbled by how seriously people have taken this election, this opportunity to do something differently, this chance to make sure we finally have an MP in Parliament who is going to be on our side.”

Conservatives’ by-election scorecard since the 2019 general election

09:49 , Athena Stavrou

The Conservatives have now lost eight by-elections since the 2019 general election, as well as making one gain and holding three seats.

Their first by-election took place in Hartlepool in May 2021 and amounted to their first - and only - gain since they came into government.

In June 2021, they lost the seat of Chesham & Amersham to the Liberal Democrats and ended the year by holding the Old Bexley & Sidcup and losing the seat of North Shropshire to the Liberal Democrats once again in December 2021

In February 2022 the Tories held the seat of Southend West by-election which was triggered by the murder of MP David Amess.

Later that year, the Conservatives suffered two by-election losses on the same day in June 2022: the first time since 1991 that a government had endured two concurrent defeats. Labour took Wakefield in West Yorkshire on a swing of 12.7 percentage points while the Liberal Democrats won the Devon seat of Tiverton & Honiton.

One month later, the Conservatives took another blow in two other by-elections. The Selby & Ainsty by-election in North Yorkshire was one of three to take place on the same day in July 2023 and saw Labour win the seat from the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats clocked up another win in the Somerset seat of Somerton & Frome, taking it from the Conservatives on a swing of 29.0 points.

The third by-election to take place on the same day in July this year saw the Conservatives hold the outer London seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, in a contest triggered by the resignation of its MP and former prime minister Boris Johnson.

This brings us to yesterday’s by-elections, which saw yet another double-bill of defeats for the Conservatives. They lost Mid Bedfordshire on a swing to Labour of 20.5 percentage points and Tamworth on a swing of 23.9 points.

Tory candidate walks out after losing by-election

09:32 , Athena Stavrou

The Tory candidate for the Tamworth by-lection walked out of the counting hall after winning candidate Sarah Edwards began her victory speech.

Andrew Cooper, who this week faced criticism over an old explicit food bank post telling struggling parents to “f*** off”, appeared to be quite a sore loser indeed as he left the room by going out the fire escape when Labour’s Edwards started speaking.

You can watch his hasty exit here:

Labour “made history”

09:08 , Athena Stavrou

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the party’s winning candidate for Mid Bedfordshire had “not only won” but “made history”.

Appearing alongside Alistair Strathern at the Forest Centre & Millennium Country Park near Bedford, he said: “What a fantastic candidate… He has not only won here, he’s made history here over the past 24 hours. An incredible achievement already.”

Thanking Labour campaigners, he said: “Every vote that you persuaded to come across to us was worth it.

“This is an incredible night in politics, an incredible morning, an incredible result here for so many reasons.

“It is clear that the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory Government. They’ve had enough of the decline of the last 13 years and they are crying out for change – positive change that the Labour Party can bring them.”

What the by-election double whammy means for Rishi Sunak

08:57 , Athena Stavrou

In the space of 30 minutes in the early hours of Friday morning the Conservatives lost Tamworth – which it held with a majority of 19,634 in 2019 – and then Mid Bedfordshire, where there had been a massive 24,664 vote cushion.

The Tories expected a difficult night, in part because governing parties often suffer a by-election backlash but also because of the controversies that led to the two vacancies.

But the defeats cannot be shrugged off, especially not with a general election next year. Mr Sunak has to go to the country by January 2025 at the latest, but spring or autumn 2024 are more likely options.

Considering the Tories won in 2019 with a majority of 80, the prospect of a Conservative defeat would represent a seismic shift in British politics in the space of five years.

The phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” has become a political cliche, but Mr Sunak has to a large degree pinned his hopes on an improving economic picture.

He will hope that growth picks up, inflation falls and people feel a sense of optimism about the direction of the country. With discretion over the timing of the general election, he can choose the point he feels it is most likely to result in a Tory win.

But the state of the public finances could restrict Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ability to deliver a tax-cutting, voter-pleasing budget in the run-up to the election.

And problems with NHS waiting lists and small boat crossings of the English Channel are unlikely to disappear despite promises to deal with them featuring prominently in Mr Sunak’s priorities for government.

Sir Keir Strarmer: “Voters have turned their back on a failed Tory government"

08:41 , Athena Stavrou

Sir Keir Starmer spoke in Mid Bedfordshire following Labour’s double by-election win there and in Tamworth.

In Mid-Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority by taking the seat by 1,192 votes over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye – a swing of 20.5 percentage points to Labour.

Making a short speech about the “incredible” by-election Starmer said: “It is clear the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory government.”

He added that the result showed voters are “crying out for change”.

Recap: Labour win two key by-elections

08:33 , Athena Stavrou

Sir Keir Starmer claimed Labour was “redrawing the political map” by overturning huge Tory majorities in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire and dealing a double by-election blow to Rishi Sunak.

In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards overcome a 19,000 majority and defeated Conservative rival Andrew Cooper by a majority of 1,316.

The result in the “red wall” Midlands seat saw a mammoth 23.9 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour. Polling guru Prof John Curtice said “no government has lost a seat as safe as Tamworth”.

In Mid-Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority by taking the seat by 1,192 votes over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye – a swing of 20.5 percentage points to Labour.

The result in Nadine Dorries’ old seat was the single largest majority overturned by Labour at a by-election since 1945.

Voters are ‘happy’ with Rishi Sunak, claims Tory chair – who insists he is staying on

08:26 , Athena Stavrou

Greg Hands said he believes people are “happy with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as prime minister” despite the Tories’ two humiliating by-election defeats overnight.

He said that “legacy issues” that “predate” Sunak’s time at No 10 have caused the two by-elections.

Hands also argued that there was “a lot of fury” among voters about the background to the two by-elections – the exit of Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher.

Asked whether he was considering his position, Mr Hands told Sky News said: “No, I’m going to be looking at the dynamics and the operation of those by-elections but I think we had a very good campaign, we had good candidates, we just need to find a way of incentivising Conservatives to turn up to vote next year at the general election.”

Tory MP demands ‘far-reaching changes’

08:08 , Athena Stavrou

The Tories need to make “far-reaching major changes now” in the wake of the party’s two crushing by-election losses, one of its right-wing MPs has warned.

Former minister Andrea Jenkyns – a big Boris Johnson supporter – wrote on social media: “Voter apathy is evident yet again in both the by-elections, low turnout … We need to make far reaching major changes now to instil confidence in the Conservative voters.”

Still no enthusiasm for Labour, claims Tory chairman

07:58 , Athena Stavrou

Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands said he does not “see any enthusiasm for Labour” despite the party’s victories, adding that turnout had been low.

He said he had campaigned in both seats, telling Times Radio: “I don’t think a single person came to the door to say that despite all the problems people are facing, that Labour and Sir Keir Starmer were the solution to their problems.

“So I don’t see any enthusiasm for Labour … But clearly we need to reflect on that and we need to continue to deliver against our priorities and make sure that people see that Rishi Sunak is doing a very good job as prime minister.”

Armageddon coming for Tories’, says George Osborne

07:38 , Athena Stavrou

George Osborne, the former Tory chancellor, had warned earlier in the night that losing Mid-Bedfordshire — a Tory seat since 1931 — would mean “Armageddon is coming for the Tory party”.

His podcast co-host Ed Balls, the former Labour shadow chancellor, said: “If Labour was to win Tamworth and mid-Beds it’s a political earthquake.”

Tories ‘staring general election defeat in face’, says John Curtice

07:33 , Athena Stavrou

Prof Curtice told the BBC: “No government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party in a by-election a seat as safe as Tamworth.”

He added that the result shows the Tories “may get caught in a pincer movement between some of their former Leave voters wandering off to Labour but others going off to Reform UK”.

Prof Curtice said the two results were “extremely bad news” for the Conservatives and suggested Mr Sunak was on course for general election defeat.

“This isn’t destiny, but it is a pointer and it is a pointer that, unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and fairly radically turn things around, then they are in truth staring defeat in the face in 12 months’ time.”

Sunak ‘staring defeat in the face’ after double by-election blow

07:17 , Namita Singh

Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are “staring defeat in the face” after devastating back to back by-election losses in safe Tory seats.

Polling guru Professor John Curtice said the Conservatives have not faced a slew of such poor by-election results since the run up to the 1997 general election, in which Tony Blair’s Labour won a landslide.

And Sir John warned that without a “dramatic and radical” turnaround, the Conservatives are on course for defeat in the next election, expected in less than a year.

His comments came after Labour secured shock wins in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections, which Sir Keir Starmer said showed he was “redrawing the political map”.

Read this joint report from Archie Mitchell and Kate Devlin:

Rishi Sunak ‘staring defeat in the face’ after double by-election blow

In graphics: Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-election result

07:12 , Namita Singh

Full results for Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth as Labour by-election smash records

07:11 , Namita Singh

Sir Keir Starmer claimed Labour was “redrawing the political map” by overturning huge Tory majorities in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire and dealing a double by-election blow to Rishi Sunak.

In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards overcome a 19,000 majority and defeated Conservative rival Andrew Cooper by a majority of 1,316.

The result in the “red wall” Midlands seat saw a mammoth 23.9 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour. Polling guru Prof John Curtice said “no government has lost a seat as safe as Tamworth”.

In Mid-Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority by taking the seat by 1,192 votes over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye – a swing of 20.5 percentage points to Labour.

Our political correspondent Adam Forrest reports:

Full results for Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth as Labour smash records

Important to see defeats in context, says Conservative spokesperson

07:04 , Namita Singh

A Conservative defeat in Tamworth should be seen in context, says Tory spokesperson.

“This is a difficult result on much-reduced turnout,” the party spokesperson told BBC.

“But it’s important to see it in context. The government of the day rarely wins by-elections and there were specific reasons around the nature of the departure of the previous MP.”

“It’s disappointing that Andy Cooper has not won, he has lived there his whole life and knows the issues local people are facing,” the spokesman added.

“He will continue to fight for the people of Tamworth in his role as a local councillor.”

Tory minister: ‘We’re on the right course’

06:23 , Archie Mitchell

A Conservative minister has denied the party needs to change course in the wake of two historic by-election defeats overnight.

Andrew Bowie said there is “always room for improvement,” but insisted the Tories are “on the right course” despite the losses.

Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire’s by-elections saw two of the biggest swings against the Conservatives since the second world war.

But Mr Bowie told Sky News: “We’ve got to take notice and listen to what the voters are telling us. But what’s been quite clear on the doorsteps is that people actually do agree with our priorities.”

But he added: “There is no groundswell of support for the Labour Party. What that tells me is that people are supportive of what we’re doing, but they just were not prepared to come out and vote for us.”

Decoding Labour’s Tamworth win

06:23 , Namita Singh

To win Tamworth, Labour needed a swing in the share of the vote of 21.4 percentage points: the equivalent of a net change of 22 in every 100 people who voted Conservative at the 2019 general election switching sides.

In the event, they pulled off an even bigger swing of 23.9 points: high enough to rank as the second largest swing recorded by Labour at a by-election since 1945.

The largest was 29.1 points at the Dudley West by-election in December 1994.

The Conservative majority overturned by Labour in Tamworth was 19,634: smaller than in Mid Bedfordshire, but still a sizeable number.

The Tories’ share of the vote dropped sharply from 66% at the 2019 general election to 41 per cent, while Labour’s share rose from 24 per cent to 46 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats finished in seventh place, behind a variety of parties including Reform and the Greens.

This is a very different outcome from their third-place finish in Mid Bedfordshire and suggests a degree of tactical voting might have occurred, with some Lib Dem supporters possibly voting Labour, having concluded that Labour had the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.

The outcome in Tamworth has an intriguing parallel with a by-election in the 1990s.

Before 1997, this area of the country was represented by the constituency of South East Staffordshire.

A by-election took place in South East Staffordshire in April 1996, roughly one year ahead of a general election.

Then, as now, the Conservatives went into the contest defending a large majority.

And then, as now, Labour won the seat on a huge swing: 22.1 percentage points, very close to the 23.9 point swing they achieved in Tamworth on Thursday.

Of the 10 seats to have changed hands at parliamentary by-elections in the past three years, eight of them involved swings of 20 percentage points or higher: a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history.

Five of these eight swings have occurred in the past four months: Selby & Ainsty (23.7 points from Conservatives to Labour) and Somerton & Frome (29.0 points from Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats) in July; Rutherglen & Hamilton West (20.4 points from the SNP to Labour) earlier this month, and now Mid Bedfordshire (20.5 points) and Tamworth (23.9 points), both from Conservatives to Labour.

The others were Tiverton & Honiton (29.9 points) in June 2022, North Shropshire (34.1 points) in December 2021, and Chesham & Amersham (25.2 points) in June 2021, all from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.

The remaining two seats to have changed hands at by-elections in the last three years are Wakefield, gained by Labour from the Conservatives in June 2022 on a swing of 12.7 points; and Hartlepool, gained by the Tories from Labour in May 2021 on a swing of 16.0 points.

In pictures: Labour's historic win in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire

06:18 , Namita Singh

Analysis: Key statistics and historical benchmarks in Mid Bedfordshire

06:10 , Namita Singh

Labour has made history by winning Mid Bedfordshire.

The result represents the largest numerical Conservative majority (24,664) to be overturned by the party at a by-election since 1945.

The seat has existed since 1918 and had elected Tory MPs continuously since 1931 - until now.

To win Mid-Bedfordshire, Labour needed a swing in the share of the vote of 19.1 percentage points.

In other words, a net change of 20 in every 100 people who voted Conservative in 2019 needed to switch sides to Labour.

They managed a swing of 20.5 points, almost matching the 20.4 point swing the party achieved at the Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-election earlier in October, when they won the seat from the SNP.

The Conservative share of the vote in Mid Bedfordshire fell from 38 per cent at the 2019 general election to 31 per cent, while Labour jumped from 22 per cent to 34 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats also improved on their performance in 2019, increasing their vote share from 13 per cent to 23 per cent.

Both Labour and the Lib Dems had presented themselves as the main challenger to the Conservatives in Mid Bedfordshire and such a three-way contest was always likely to deliver a close result.

‘Tories need to focus on issues that matter to voters'

05:59 , Namita Singh

Conservative former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland says party needs to focus on issues that matter to voters.

He told the BBC: “I think that as Conservatives, we now need to make it very clear what the next five years is going to look like, and that’s what I’m looking for from the prime minister and our leaders.

Sir Robert Buckland

Can Rishi Sunak turn around by-election loses

05:58 , Namita Singh

The phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” has become a political cliche, but Rishi Sunak has to a large degree pinned his hopes on an improving economic picture.

He will hope that growth picks up, inflation falls and people feel a sense of optimism about the direction of the country.

With discretion over the timing of the general election, he can choose the point he feels it is most likely to result in a Tory win.

But the state of the public finances could restrict chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ability to deliver a tax-cutting, voter-pleasing budget in the run-up to the election.

And problems with NHS waiting lists and small boat crossings of the English Channel are unlikely to disappear despite promises to deal with them featuring prominently in Mr Sunak’s priorities for government.

What does by-election double whammy mean for Sunak

05:46 , Namita Singh

Rishi Sunak has suffered the loss of two previously safe Tory seats, with Labour securing swings of more than 20 percentage points to take Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.

As the prime minister approaches the 12-month mark in the job, the defeat cannot be shrugged off as cases of mid-term blues, especially with a general election expected next year.

A series of Tory strongholds have collapsed in by-elections, and worryingly for Mr Sunak they have been spread across the country with different political factors and opponents at play.

Swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years - a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history.

Seven of those contests have seen the Tories lose seats, four to the Liberal Democrats and three to Labour.

Mr Sunak has to go to the country by January 2025 at the latest, but spring or autumn 2024 are more likely options.

Labour has highlighted the fact that a seat like Tamworth was not even on its target list of constituencies it would need to take to win a general election.

Respected elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the Conservatives were “staring defeat in the face” next year unless there was a dramatic turnaround in the party’s fortunes.

Considering the Tories won in 2019 with a majority of 80, the prospect of a Conservative defeat would represent a seismic shift in British politics in the space of five years.

As Tories downplay by-election results, experts see it as ‘bad news’ ahead of general election

05:42 , Namita Singh

The Conservatives sought to portray the by-elections as mid-term blips, exacerbated by the difficulties surrounding the previous MPs.

But elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the two results were “extremely bad news” for the Conservatives and suggested Mr Sunak was on course for general election defeat.

“This isn’t destiny, but it is a pointer and it is a pointer that, unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and fairly radically turn things around, then they are in truth staring defeat in the face in 12 months’ time.”

He warned the Tories risked seeing votes drift to Labour on the left and Reform UK on the right.

Reform secured 1,487 votes in Mid Bedfordshire and 1,373 in Tamworth, in both instances more than Labour’s majority over the Conservatives.

Prof Curtice told the BBC: “No government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party in a by-election a seat as safe as Tamworth.”

He added that the Tories “may get caught in a pincer movement between some of their former Leave voters wandering off to Labour but others going off to Reform UK”.

The Tamworth result echoes Labour’s victory in a by-election in its predecessor constituency South East Staffordshire in 1996.

The Conservatives went into that contest defending a large majority only to see Labour win the seat on a swing of 22.1 percentage points before a general election landslide the following year – a result Sir Keir would dearly like to repeat.

Tory former cabinet minister Sir Robert Buckland said Mr Sunak’s party now needed to focus on the issues that mattered most to voters rather than infighting about who could succeed the party leader.

He told the BBC: “I think that as Conservatives, we now need to make it very clear what the next five years is going to look like, and that’s what I’m looking for from the Prime Minister and our leaders.”

How were the by-elections triggered?

05:30 , Namita Singh

The contests in Mid Beds and Tamworth were triggered by the high-profile departures of the previous Tory MPs.

Former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries quit - eventually - as Mid Bedfordshire’s MP in anger at being denied a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list.

In Tamworth, Chris Pincher resigned after being found to have drunkenly groped two men in an “egregious case of sexual misconduct” at London’s exclusive Carlton Club last year - an incident which helped trigger Mr Johnson’s exit from No 10 because of his handling of the situation.

Tory MP: ‘Disappointing… but by-elections are a different beast’

05:24 , Namita Singh

Maria Caulfield said losing both by-elections was “disappointing” but “by-elections are a different beast”.

The Tory MP said voters can “send a message” at by-elections, but suggested the Conservatives could win Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire back in a general election.

She cited Brecon and Radnorshire, which the Tories lost in a by-election weeks before the 2019 general election, before winning the seat back.

“People can safely either not vote or vote for a different party and still keep the government and so it can be a form of a protest vote,” she told Sky News.

She added: “It’s quite usual for a particular party in government to lose by election, and for that not to be the same when it comes to general elections.”

What went wrong for Conservatives?

05:20 , Namita Singh

As Conservative candidate Festus Akinbusoye rushed out BBC asked him what went wrong for Tories in Mid Beds?

He told outlet’s Ben Schofield that it was “democracy”.

‘Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party'

05:15 , Namita Singh

Alistair Strathern said his victory in Mid Beds showed “nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party”.

“Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being under-represented, they made a decision it was time for a change.

“Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight’s result proves it.”

Voters ‘ready to put their faith’ in Labour

05:10 , Namita Singh

Sir Keir Starmer said that the Labour win in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth show the party “is back in the service of working people”.

“Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they’re ready to put their faith in our changed Labour Party to deliver it.

“Voters across Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth and Britain want a Labour government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.

“To those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back.”

Tory peer Lord Cruddas: 'Someone should resign'

05:10 , Namita Singh

Conservative peer Lord Cruddas said somebody “at the top” of the party should resign after the double by-election drubbing.

The Boris Johnson ally said: “The dire by-election results for Conservatives means somebody needs to resign. It should start at the top and now!”

Rishi Sunak ‘staring defeat in the face’ after double by-election blow

04:49 , Namita Singh

Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are “staring defeat in the face” after devastating back to back by-election losses in safe Tory seats.

Polling guru Professor John Curtice said the Conservatives have not faced a slew of such poor by-election results since the run up to the 1997 general election, in which Tony Blair’s Labour won a landslide.

And Sir John warned that without a “dramatic and radical” turnaround, the Conservatives are on course for defeat in the next election, expected in less than a year.

My colleague Archie Mitchell has more:

Huge blow for Rishi Sunak as Labour snatch by-election win in Mid Bedfordshire

Who is Alistair Strathen?

04:48 , Namita Singh

Alistair Strathern, a former maths teacher, made it a double for Labour on a night in which the party also overturned a Tory majority of almost 20,000 in Tamworth.

He fended off the Conservatives’ Festus Akinbusoye, the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, who would have been the latest in a straight run of Tory MPs in the constituency going back to 1931 if he had won.

But the former councillor, who has worked at the Bank of England, also beat the Lib Dem candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay after a fierce campaign.

The Lib Dems had insisted they were the best placed party to win over natural Conservatives and win despite placing third at the last general election, behind Labour.

There had been concerns that the Tories might squeak through on a massively reduced majority because of a split in the anti-Conservative vote. But the Labour victory ended up being by a strong margin on a 44 per cent turnout.

Ms Dorries, the former culture secretary, had held Mid Bedfordshire, a blend of small towns and rural areas, from 2005, winning at the 2019 general election with 60 per cent of the vote.

Ms Dorries announced she would quit with “immediate effect” in protest against not getting a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation list back in June, but took nearly three months to make it official.

There was clear anger in the constituency about the “absentee MP”. She had not spoken in the Commons since early July last year, but found time to present her TalkTV show.

‘We can help get rid of Tory government’

04:34 , Namita Singh

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper says: “We nearly doubled our share of the vote which would see the Lib Dems win dozens of seats off the Conservatives in a general election.”

“The Liberal Democrats played a crucial role in defeating the Conservatives in Mid Bedfordshire, and we can play a crucial role in getting rid of this Conservative government at the next election,” she told the BBC.

“I’m so proud of Emma Holland-Lindsay and her campaign which convinced thousands of lifelong Conservative voters in the villages of Mid Bedfordshire to switch to the Liberal Democrats.”

The Lib Dems came third in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, with 9,420 votes.

‘Mid Bedfordshire win not just Nadine Dorries effect’

04:27 , Namita Singh

Shadow cabinet member Peter Kyle dismissed suggestions that it was just a Nadine Dorries effect that led Labour to overturn the Tories in Mid Bedfordshire.

He told the PA news agency that families have been voting Conservative in the constituency for generations, adding: “So for this to happen, it wouldn’t just happen over one thing.

“There is no doubt in my mind that had it just been Nadine Dorries and her neglect to this constituency that the Conservatives would have had a reduced majority, but they would have survived.”

He said that it was “layer upon layer of poor performance” from the government, the “lawbreaking” of ministers, a “failure to deliver on key pledges, and also the “language of hatred and division that’s crept into this Government”.

“All of these things have added up to the fact that this community no longer sees its values aligned with those of the Conservative Party that it’s supported for so long,” he said.

Voters saw through ‘heat and fury’ of Lib Dems, says Peter Kyle

04:26 , Namita Singh

Shadow cabinet member Peter Kyle said that voters saw through the “heat and fury” of the Lib Dems after a fierce campaign.

Mr Kyle, who was the Mid Bedfordshire campaign manager, told the PA news agency: “Don’t mistake action with heat. The Lib Dems made a lot of noise and heat during this campaign, but it never translated into action on the ground.

“We did that the hard way, by earning it. You can’t come in here, make a lot of noise and think you have the right to be taken seriously.”

He said that the Lib Dems had come into the constituency “hammering from the left, hammering from the right” and “coming up with statistics that were completely nonsensical”.

“Voters saw through the Lib Dem heat and fury for what it was,” he added.

Alistair Strathern and Sarah Edwards overturn key Conservative seats

04:18 , Namita Singh

Labour has delivered a historic defeat to the Conservatives by winning Mid Bedfordshire for the first time in the constituency’s century-long history.

With the vote triggered by Nadine Dorries’ long-burning resignation, it was the largest majority in terms of votes overturned by the party at a by-election since 1945.

Rishi Sunak’s challenge to turn around his party’s prospects looked even harder when Labour’s Alistair Strathern secured a swing of 20.5 percentage to win by 1,192 votes.

In its 105 years of existence, Labour had never won Mid Bedfordshire. They were 24,664 votes behind the Conservatives at the last general election.

But riding a long wave of high national polling and a certain amount of resentment towards Ms Dorries, Labour upended 92 years of Mid Bedfordshire returning Conservative MPs.

In his victory speech, Mr Strathern said: “Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being underrepresented, they made a decision it was time for a change.

“Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight’s result proves it.”

Sarah Edwards overturned a Conservative majority of more than 19,600 to secure the first Labour victory in the Staffordshire constituency since 2005.

She replaces the disgraced former MP Chris Pincher, who stood down after being found to have drunkenly groped two men last year.

Her Conservative opponent, Andrew Cooper, was ushered out of a side door of Rawlett School in Tamworth seconds after his defeat was confirmed, with Tory staff blocking the exit as he did so, something Ms Edwards described as “disappointing”.

In her speech after her victory was confirmed, Ms Edwards said: “The people of Tamworth have voted for Labour’s positive vision and a fresh start.

“They’ve sent a clear message to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives that they have had enough of this failed government, which has crashed the economy and destroyed our public services.

“The people of Tamworth have made it clear, it’s time for change.”

Labour's Mid Bedfordshire campaign manager: Wins are 'political earthquake' for the Tories

04:12 , Namita Singh

Shadow cabinet member Peter Kyle said that Labour had delivered a “political earthquake” to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives after securing a double by-election win.

Speaking at the Mid Bedfordshire count where he was celebrating with new MP Alistair Strathern, he told the PA news agency: “This is a huge night.

“Make no bones about it, this is a political earthquake that has unfolded here.

“This is the biggest by-election shock in history, it is a political earthquake and it is one that is sending an unignorable message to Westminster and to Rishi Sunak that this country deserves better.”

Mid Bedfordshire win ‘made history’, says Alistair Strathern

03:57 , Namita Singh

Labour's Alistair Strathern said his victory in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election had "made history" and sent a "resounding message".

Giving his victory speech, the newest Labour MP said: "Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being under-represented, they made a decision it was time for a change.

"Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight's result proves it."

What do the latest statistics say

03:52 , Namita Singh

Labour's victories at Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth mean that swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years - a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history.

Five of the eight swings have occurred in the past four months: Selby & Ainsty (23.7 points from Conservatives to Labour) and Somerton & Frome (29.0 points from Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats) in July; Rutherglen & Hamilton West (20.4 points from the SNP to Labour) earlier this month, and now Mid Bedfordshire (20.5 points) and Tamworth (23.9 points), both from Conservatives to Labour.

The others were Tiverton & Honiton (29.9 points) in June 2022, North Shropshire (34.1 points) in December 2021, and Chesham & Amersham (25.2 points) in June 2021, all from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.

‘Labour will give Britain its future back’

03:49 , Namita Singh

After winning Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the party will give “Britain its future back”.

"Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they're ready to put their faith in our changed Labour Party to deliver it.

"Voters across Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth and Britain want a Labour government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.

"To those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back."

In pictures: Labour candidate Alistair Strathern celebrates winning the Mid Bedfordshire by-election

03:44 , Namita Singh

Labour secure dramatic by-election victory in Tamworth

03:26 , Namita Singh

Labour has dealt a blow to Rishi Sunak by overturning a Tory majority of almost 20,000 in Tamworth.

With the potential for a historic by-election gain in Mid Bedfordshire where votes are still being counted, Labour could double the pain for the Prime Minister.

In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards defeated Tory Andrew Cooper by a majority of 1,316.

The Conservatives were defending a 19,600 majority, but a 23.9 percentage point swing to Labour saw that eradicated.

It was the second highest ever by-election swing to Labour.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “This is a phenomenal result that shows Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map.

“To those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back.”

Huge blow for Rishi Sunak as Labour snatch by-election win in Mid Bedfordshire

03:18 , Namita Singh

Rishi Sunak faced a major blow as Labour snatched victory in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election.

Overturning the biggest majority in British by-election history, Sir Keir Starmer’s party has taken the blue wall sea from the Tories for the first time.

Nadine Dorries won the seat in 2019 with a majority of 24,664, and the Conservatives have held Mid Bedfordshire since 1931.

But, with Labour enjoying a significant poll lead nationally and local outrage at Ms Dorries’ resignation this summer, Mr Sunak’s party lost the seat.

My colleague Archie Mitchell reports:

Huge blow for Rishi Sunak as Labour snatch by-election win in Mid Bedfordshire

Statistics from latest by-election

03:15 , Namita Singh

The swing from the Conservatives to Labour in Tamworth was 23.9 percentage points.

This is larger than the swing Labour achieved at the Selby & Ainsty by-election in July, which was 23.7 points.

It is also the second-largest swing managed by Labour at a by-election since 1945.

The highest was at the Dudley West by-election in December 1994, which was 29.1 points.

In video: Key statistic from Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections

03:13 , Namita Singh

Sir Keir Starmer: 'Labour is back'

03:12 , Namita Singh

Sir Keir Starmer has hailed a shock win in Tamworth as evidence the party is “back... and redrawing the political map”.

Reacting to the results, the Labour leader said: “This is a phenomenal result that shows Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map.

“To those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back.”

‘We have turned the page on Tory neglect’

03:11 , Namita Singh

Tamworth’s newly elected Labour MP Sarah Edwards issued a statement after her win in a previously Tory majority constituency.

“Tonight we have turned the page on Tory neglect and delivered a fresh start for Tamworth and our villages,” said Ms Edwards.

In a message to her electorate, she said: “I know a lot of you have voted Labour for the first time and I will not let you down.

“I’ve spoken to many people in this campaign and the same conversation has been repeated: people feel worse off after 13 years of the Conservatives and don’t feel like the government have a plan to address the big issues that face our country.”

She added: “My message to the prime minister is get in your government car, drive to Buckingham Palace, do the decent thing and call a general election.”

Tamworth's new Labour MP: 'It's time for change'

03:08 , Namita Singh

Tamworth’s new MP Sarah Edwards said: “Tonight the people of Tamworth have voted for Labour’s positive vision and a fresh start.

“They’ve sent a clear message to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives that they have had enough of this failed government, which has crashed the economy and destroyed our public services.

“The people of Tamworth have made it clear. It’s time for change.”

Labour’s Sarah Edwards has arrived at the count in Tamworth

02:34 , Archie Mitchell

Labour’s candidate Sarah Edwards has arrived at the by-election count in Tamworth, with results expected soon.

Local Democracy Reporter Richard Price reports Labour has won, with a majority of around 1,000 votes.

Labour: ‘We don’t know… but it has been a good night’

02:12 , Archie Mitchell

Labour’s campaign manager in Mid Bedfordshire has said he does not know the result, but that it has been “a good night” for the party.

Peter Kyle, who has been campaigning in the safe Tory seat for months, said it is “clear Labour is doing very well”.

“This was always a moonshot for us, this campaign,” Mr Kyle told the BBC.

And he added: “If  we did win this it would be the biggest buyer election shock in history… and would be a devastating blow to Rishi Sunak.”

And Mr Kyle lashed out at the Liberal Democrats, who have risked splitting the vote and handing Mid Bedfordshire back to the Tories, saying: “We have learned during this campaign is the Liberal Democrats don't know how to add up.”

He was referring to the Liberal Democrats’ use of leaflets which critics have described as misleading.

The Lib Dems think Labour have won, it appears the Tories do too...

01:33 , Archie Mitchell

The Liberal Democrats think Labour have won the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, and Tories on the ground seem to think so too.

A source outside the counting hall said the Liberal Democrats were not wrong to say Labour are on top, but stressed the result would be “close” and was not a reflection of national trends.

The Liberal Democrats think Labour have won it

Friday 20 October 2023 00:52 , Archie Mitchell

The Liberal Democrats think they have helped Labour over the line in Mid Bedfordshire.

A party source said candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay has managed to double the Lib Dems’ vote share compared with the 2019 general election - at the expense of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.

The source called the by-election for Labour, saying it has been a “bad night” for the Tories.

They said the party saw a “path to victory” ahead of the contest, but door-knocking on the final day of the campaign suggested a surge in support for Labour in towns and a collapse in support for the Conservatives in the county’s villages.

Voter turnout in Mid Bedfordshire: 44 per cent

Friday 20 October 2023 00:50 , Archie Mitchell

After a rainy day in Mid Bedfordshire, voter turnout was 44 per cent, a major drop from 73.7 per cent at the 2019 general election.

Voter turnout in Tamworth: 35.94 per cent

Friday 20 October 2023 00:37 , Archie Mitchell

Voter turnout in the Tamworth by-election was 35.94 per cent, a significant drop from 64.3 per cent at the 2019 general election.

Thursday 19 October 2023 23:50 , Archie Mitchell

The count at the Mid Bedfordshire by-election is in full swing, with results expected by around 1.30am.

Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives have all sought to downplay expectations in the seat - which is expected to be a close fought three-way battle.

Liberal Democrats: ‘Voters are disappointed with the government… and Nadine Dorries’

Thursday 19 October 2023 23:35 , Archie Mitchell

The Liberal Democrats have said Mid Bedfordshire voters are disappointed in Rishi Sunak’s government - and the conduct of former MP Nadine Dorries.

Party spokesman Christine Jardine said the biggest issue that has come up on the doorstep has been the shortage of GPs.

But the Edinburgh West MP said voters are also expressing “general dissatisfaction of the government” and are “disappointed” in Ms Dorries.

“Rishi Sunak, the cabinet and everybody in the government don’t really seem to understand the problems that people are facing, they are a  little bit out of touch, very touch actually,” Ms Jardine told The Independent.