Is the electric grid fixed? What we know about Texas power grid reliability this summer

As Texas’ population grows, state officials are warning there might not be enough power to meet electricity demands this summer.

Public Utility Commission Chairman Peter Lake and Pablo Vegas, the president and CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas on Wednesday gave an update on the Texas power grid as summer approaches.

The reliability of the grid has been closely monitored since the February 2021 winter storm, when millions were left without power for days.

Lake said the grid, operationally, is “ready for the summer.”

“The reliability reforms that were put in place have been tested and continue to work,” he said. “We’ve made the grid we’ve got as strong as possible using every tool available.”

But the Texas grid faces a “new reality,” Lake said.

For the first time, the peak demand for electricity this summer will exceed the amount that can be generated from “dispatchable” power sources, he said — power sources like natural gas that can be turned on and off on demand.

“We will be relying on renewables to keep the lights on,” he said. “On the hottest days of summer, there is no longer enough on-demand dispatchable power generation to meet demand in the ERCOT system.”

Potential supply and demand troubles

Lake said the Texas’ demand for electricity is outpacing the supply of dispatchable power. He raised concerns with Texas relying on renewable power like wind and solar to avoid outages when the amount of dispatchable power falls short.

“In this new reality, our risk goes up as the sun goes down, because it’s still hot at 9 p.m.,” Lake said. “The sun sets faster than the atmosphere cools and our solar generation is all gone. So, at that point in the day, we will be relying on wind generation on our hottest days.

“If the wind does not pick up, we will have to rely on our on demand dispatchable generators and the data is showing us that on our hottest days under some certain set of circumstances, we may not have enough on-demand dispatchable generation to cover the gap between when the sun sets, we lose solar, and when our wind generation picks up.”

The tightest periods will likely be after 9 p.m., rather than around 5 p.m., Vegas said.

Vegas said there’s an urgent need for reforms to the electric market that encourage dispatchable energy. Luke Metzger, the executive director of Environment Texas, pushed back on increased dependency on fossil fuel.

“We do need to make more fixes to the grid,” he said in a Wednesday statement. “Solutions include further weatherization of power plants and the fuel supply, more energy efficiency, more batteries, and interconnecting our grid with the rest of the country’s. These solutions will also protect the environment and consumers. Prolonging our dependency on pollution-spewing, fossil-fuel power plants is not the answer.”

Bills related to the power grid and natural gas are before Texas lawmakers as they meet in Austin. The Legislative session ends May 29.

How likely are power shortages?

Lake said the risk of brief power outages has increased.

“We fully expect to keep the lights on if wind and solar perform, but we will be relying on wind and sun,” Lake said.

Vegas stressed that the report being used to guide the supply and demand concerns — the Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy — isn’t a forecast. Rather, its a series of models and risk scenarios that are used for preparation ahead of each weather season.

“They’re not necessarily what we believe will happen, but they are scenarios that could happen based on historical data and projections,” he said.

Extreme scenarios outlined in the report are low probability, the report says. Vegas later added there’s a low probability — less than 1% — that Texas finds itself in a situation with extreme high heat, very low renewable energy output, and very low thermal dispatchable generation available.

“We do expect the grid to be reliable, but we want to be upfront and communicate openly and transparently to all the consumers about the kinds of risks that we do see,” he said.

ERCOT will continue to operate the grid conservatively — such as bringing generating resources on earlier — to help mitigate risk, Vegas said.

But I thought the grid was fixed?

As officials warn of power shortages, some may recall Texas Gov. Greg Abbott promise that “the lights will stay on” in a November 2021 interview with Fox 7 in Austin.

More than a year later, Vegas compared the power grid to a car to demonstrate its current state.

“The grid is as reliable as its ever been,” he said. “And let me give you an analogy to explain what I mean by that. So if during the Winter Storm Uri you were to think about the grid as a car: The car didn’t start. It was not reliable. We had issues with the reliability of the grid during that storm. In the two years that followed, significant investments and improvements have been made to make sure the grid would be reliable, that the car would start.

“So that’s what we’re saying this summer is that the car is ready to go, it’s ready to run. It’s going to be reliable. However, we’re asking it to go further without adding more reliable fuel.”